tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post8604855049625969914..comments2023-10-27T03:16:03.213-04:00Comments on Burgh Diaspora: Regional Economic Development GoalsJim Russellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-33328177391549096272012-08-30T08:40:01.768-04:002012-08-30T08:40:01.768-04:00My point isn't that population growth doesn...My point isn't that population growth doesn't matter. It does matter. The issue is using population growth as a policy end game. Population growth to what end? Talent retention to what end?<br /><br />Think about why having more people living downtown is a good thing. That's the policy end game. You might be able to achieve your goals in other ways, not just population growth.Jim Russellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-49461024194364085442012-08-30T08:23:07.542-04:002012-08-30T08:23:07.542-04:00There is at least one way in which population grow...There is at least one way in which population growth actually matters, which is in how it affects the relevant markets' ability to attract long-term capital investment. A variety of capital investors look at population projections (usually among other things) when calculating the expected return on possible projects, and a shrinking population in the relevant market may make some possible projects uncompetitive.<br /><br />I don't think there is any reason to get hysterical about this, and in fact I think there can be a serious problem on the other side of the spectrum, when population growth outstrips the local maximum rate for important capital projects of various sorts.<br /><br />But I do think that you don't want to be too far for too long from the normal range of population growth among your peer/competitor economic units (e.g., in the case of Pittsburgh, slow but positive population growth would likely be adequate to keep it competitive among its peers for capital investments).BrianTHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-80060500366880636312012-08-29T09:18:22.779-04:002012-08-29T09:18:22.779-04:00Ok.Ok.The Urbanophilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18094204641794131438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-14862338675237720042012-08-28T09:38:29.027-04:002012-08-28T09:38:29.027-04:00Well, when you are championing a city that's s...<i>Well, when you are championing a city that's shrinking, naturally you pooh-pooh population growth, but I think cities that lack significant in-migration are broken in a fundamental way.</i><br /><br />A city can have population growth and lack significant inmigration. If you are championing a city with robust population growth, of course you promote that narrative. Never mind that the total labor force is shrinking. Forget the dramatic increase in poverty (see "booming" Reading, PA). Declining educational attainment rates? No problem. More people means a better place.<br /><br />I've made the case that the inmigration numbers are a better indicator to track than population. I'd go further and look at the geography of the sources of inmigration. But the population numbers in and of themselves are lousy indicators. Worse is making population increase a goal. That demonstrates a poor grasp of demographic data.Jim Russellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-24143339800246103772012-08-28T09:18:44.861-04:002012-08-28T09:18:44.861-04:00Well, when you are championing a city that's s...Well, when you are championing a city that's shrinking, naturally you pooh-pooh population growth, but I think cities that lack significant in-migration are broken in a fundamental way. At a minimum, if not population growth, some type of indication of dynamism (other than a decline in your median age driven by old people dying faster than babies are being born) is important. If you are running a "boomtown" with dirt cheap housing but nobody is moving there in the worst economy since the great depression, that certainly is curious.<br />The Urbanophilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18094204641794131438noreply@blogger.com