Burgh Diaspora

Cleveburgh Advantage

2009-12-10T11:41:00.004-05:00

Brookings released a report today that is making the new rounds as cities and states assess their migration balance sheets. The big story is the continued decline of geographic mobility. Historically significant, more people are staying put. The Rust Belt tale of the tape:

Pittsburgh posted its smallest decline from net migration in more than a decade, while rising outflows from Buffalo, Cleveland, and Providence moderated after peaking in 2005–2006. The latter two metro areas have among the weakest regional economies in the United States today, however, and their migration fortunes may slip once again as long-distance household mobility begins to rise. (Endnote 10) Yet for the present, their migration patterns are “mirror images” of past years, when many of these residents were lost to fast-growing areas like those in Florida.

The endnote citation:

- Alan Berube and others, “MetroMonitor: Tracking Economic Recession and Recovery in America’s 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas” (Brookings, September 2009).

The diverging fortunes of Cleveland and Pittsburgh is remarkable. How much do the problems in Cleveland drag on Pittsburgh growth? I'd like to know how much market interdependence exists. Inevitably, civic pride clashes with regional economics:

Allegheny County officials plan to aggressively market Pittsburgh International Airport to Greater Clevelanders in their own back yard. The ads will pitch the region's only nonstop flight to Europe.

Pittsburgh plans to roll out its marketing campaign within a few weeks because of Continental Airline's recent decision to drop summer service between Cleveland and London. Continental said the recession hurt the flight's performance. It also blamed an inability to get "economically viable" seasonal takeoff and landing rights at Heathrow Airport.

The head of the Regional Air Service Partnership in Allegheny County said Cleveland's loss could be Pittsburgh's gain.

The TechBelt has three major airport options (including CAK). When marketing this innovation corridor to the rest of the world, demonstrating how these airports compliment each other would be a major selling point. That's wishful thinking on my part:

Cleveland airport and city leaders are mulling how to restore a nonstop to London or mainland Europe out of Hopkins. A group of city, airport and business leaders are heading to Houston in coming weeks to talk to Continental officials about Cleveland's role as a Continental hub.

The most recent episode of NEOtropolis looks at regionalization in Northeast Ohio. The show's introduction references the television market of Western Reserve Public Media. The reach covers the TechBelt geography plus Erie. But the discussion about regionalism is more of the usual Cleveland+ talk. Regardless, the problems highlighted are the same facing the TechBelt. Speaking and acting with one voice is a big help when trying to attract business. I would say the same thing about trying to attract talent. More about that later at Greater Youngstown 2.0.

Possible Talent Retention Strategies

2009-12-09T16:56:00.002-05:00

I've read the full report I referenced yesterday. The author strikes a somewhat optimistic tone about effectively retaining talent:

Given these findings, one might ask how this information is useful for policymakers, employers, and officials trying to stem the net loss of human capital from their communities. The first point to make here is that, unfortunately, this research shows that the highest achieving students are apt to leave if given the right opportunity. But perhaps it does not have to be so. Some of the more surprising findings are found in the motivations and future priorities students expressed in their senior years of college. For instance, students who were more likely to stay in their home state cited being “well-off financially” and “having time for extracurricular activities” as being important to them. They also noted that they wanted to pursue “intellectually challenging work.” These provide some clues to what it takes for students to want to stay local, and policymakers and employers might want to think of programs that might keep the brightest students from moving away. In some ways, this is not unlike the ideas that sprang forth after Florida’s (2002) suggestion that states find better ways of attracting and retaining the “creative class.”

I'm still skeptical. The conclusions drawn don't demonstrate a strong understanding of talent migration. For example, the following paragraph:

Of course, this is another way of preventing the brightest students from leaving. If they are moving to another state to pursue opportunities, it is also perfectly feasible that these students might have stayed in the area if the opportunities were there as well. This is evidenced by the highly significant relationship between mobility and economic outcomes. States with higher real GDPs, higher employment, and more firm growth tend to correlate with a movement and pull of students toward them. These are also the states that, according to the Beacon Hill Competitiveness Index, strongly embrace innovation and knowledge. If this is the case, state-level policymakers should devote their energies to growing their economies, and in so doing, economic opportunity might stem the loss of talent. That said, a rising tide might not be enough to stop all “brain drain,” as some occupational choices will almost certainly take students elsewhere.

This hypothesis is easily tested. Look at the out-migration rates of talent from states with "higher real GDPs, higher employment, and more firm growth." Do those local graduates tend to stay put more readily? At this point, the study begins to unravel. Once again I note how net migration is confused with out-migration.

We are stuck with an outdated mode of thinking about workforce development. The model doesn't fit the economy. Yet we cling to it as if we didn't have a choice in the matter. We do have other options.

Brain Drain Report: Educational Attainment And Geographic Mobility

2009-12-08T13:32:00.002-05:00

The more educated you are, the more likely you are to leave your hometown. That paradox is my blog obsession. A report from U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy confirms the relationship. A regional investment in human capital exacerbates out-migration. I've only read the executive summary, so I'll use another blog reaction as a policy sounding board:

This report is likely to frustrate policymakers and economic development officials who would like to stem the loss of talent from their states. With that said, states who seek ways to grow their economies might be able to stop the “brain drain” from their regions (and perhaps prompt more in-migration). In addition, staying local can be more attractive to students who seek a balance between work and leisure time, and as noted earlier, those individuals who are married, with children, and/or homeowners are less likely to leave.

Once again, brain drain is confused with out-migration. States that don't have a brain drain problem have more in-migration than states that do have a brain drain problem. This simple fact seems elude every libertarian who writes on the subject. Meanwhile, policymakers ignore the data and insist on recycling the same ineffective brain drain plugs. (e.g. Rhode Island, Central New York, and Louisiana)

The disconnect between talent migration research and popular perception is vast. I don't see how shrinking cities can bounce back without coming to terms with the realities of brain drain. Leadership isn't interested in helping the community face up to the challenge. Instead, it leverages the anxiety to bolster support for an expensive project or just to provide a feel-good moment. And then we have the flimflam artists who promise that their consults will keep the wayward graduates close to home. Nothing will change save your region being thousands of dollars poorer.

Xenophobia Of Talent Rentention Policy

2009-12-07T16:50:00.003-05:00

The post title is a reference to Vivek Wadhwa's recent article at TechCrunch. I think the anti-immigrant sentiment and brain drain hysteria are cut from the same cloth. A guest piece at Generation Y Michigan will help me to explain:

Everyone in Lansing is talking about talent retention. “How do we keep students in Michigan?” With over 54 percent of students in Michigan leaving the state after they graduate, the “brain drain” is certainly a problem.

So I have a solution: let’s build a wall around every campus in Michigan. It will certainly keep our bright students here and away from those evil places like Chicago and D.C. Sure, it might prevent those smart and talented young adults from Ohio and the East/West coast from getting in.

The sarcasm isn't that far fetched if you remember the buffoonish Border Guard Bob:

The focus on retaining vs. attracting workers is pervasive in local policies. One marketing character thought of by the Pittsburgh Regional Alliance, whose mission is to promote Pittsburgh, was the genial "Border Guard Bob." The image was of an older, uniformed sentinel on Pittsburgh's borders keeping our citizens, in particular the younger workers, from leaving the region. This is the same logic that inspired the East Germans to build a wall around Berlin and is likely to have as much success in the long-run. An advertising campaign with Bob or any of his relatives is focused on selling Pittsburgh to Pittsburghers. Why money or time is spent on selling the region to the people who know it best is a mystery.

Michigan would like to build an Iron Curtain around the state. I'm sure the surrounding states would split the cost for the wall along the shared border. The point being is that more and more people recognize the absurdity of brain drain policies. They speak to local passions, but fail just about any economic test. That would also describe the anti-immigrant fervor that Wadhwa felt the need to address.

Ironically, the writer who disdains the word "retention" came to the same conclusion I did via a commitment to do something about the brain drain problem:

The inspiration for the company came from 12 students sitting around and looking at the statistics like 54% of Michigan university graduates leave the state and its 15.4% unemployment and the fact that a family leaves Michigan every 8 minutes. The group of us realized that we cannot just let this go on anymore and need to step up and take action and put all of our research and knowledge into legitimate action. We just couldn’t watch these things get worse and worse and realized we HAD to do something.

One doesn't need to dig very far into this issue to see how dysfunctional the framework is. At best, attraction strategies get lip service. At times, I feel like the policy debate is hopelessly backwards. I see the same dynamics in play concerning immigration reform. Natives first, economic development second.

Costs Of Brain Drain

2009-12-07T00:51:00.002-05:00

GlobalIrish wonders if there are any comparisons between Ireland's and Michigan's brain drain. Earlier this month, the Land Policy Institute published a report looking at the costs of out-migration. Indeed, population decline is bad for the local economy. What to do about it?

First, an important reminder about policy humility:

Population loss in many Michigan counties in the face of growing national population is cause for concern. There is a need to better understand the sources of population dynamics, the reversability of population shifts and the optimal strategies for population attraction and retention.

Despite all the fanfare, we still don't know how to best deal with the brain drain problem. I've linked to a post from 2008 that cites some studies of brain drain policies from 2003. The Land Policy Institute report indicates that not much, if anything, has improved. I'm looking forward to the next LPI publication.

Now, I'll quote part of the policy recommendations:

The loss of economic activity due to population decline is likely to be an increasingly important issue as the economy transitions further from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based one. If jobs do follow people, as proponents of the New Economy concept propose, it makes sense to add to the retinue of existing strategies such policies that have the potential of attracting population. Many states, including Michigan, continue to focus on the attraction of job-laden businesses. However, in states experiencing population loss, it may be prudent to also consider policies to attract population, especially people with greater tendency to create jobs by their presence in the local economy. Evidence from the literature suggests that the entrepreneurial class, the talented, the creative class and other knowledge-based workers are attracted to places that are rich in amenities and that offer great quality of life (McGranahan and Wojan, 2007; Deller et al.; 2001). Therefore, strategies to recruit people to an area may well be fruitful, if they result in raising the demand for services and attracting knowledge based workers.

I've added the emphasis to the key part of the passage. I didn't see any mention of retention strategies save in conjunction with attraction and as a generic reference. I might be wrong, but I'd bet that side of the equation gets short shrift in the upcoming policy paper. Attraction receives all the attention in the current publication. The reason we know so little about attraction strategies is that our focus has been solely on talent retention. I'm still looking for a proven retention policy.

The main idea offered is seeking the job creators. Via Richard Herman (don't forget the book launch party tomorrow on Monday), we know a lot about the role immigrants play. What kind of domestic migrants already think like an immigrant?

I'll recycle a quote I used in a 2007 blog post:

[El Paso Representative Susie Byrd] believes there are two types of expats: those who are looking to build a comfortable life with a clear career ladder and not much risk; and those who are entrepreneurs, the ones willing to take risks.

While she said she finds nothing wrong with those who have invested in their education and are looking for a stable career path, she feels that El Paso might not be the city to pursue those goals because the city’s wages are not competitive enough.

“But, hopefully, people like that (entrepreneurs) will see opportunity here,” she said. “We have a lot of folks like that in our economy right now, and we need even more of those.”

Christine Borne should find the above quote useful. When looking to turn the migration arrow around, target expatriates who would run through a wall to return home. These are the folks who moved the farthest away and/or thrived in an alpha global city. Rust Belt refugees would make for the best attraction target concerning domestic migrants.

But all of this might be in vain. Consider the Iowa case:

Iowans have made countless efforts to stop the state's rural population drain. Former Gov. Tom Vilsack recruited former Iowans and welcomed immigrants. Groups worked to gussy up Main Street for a kind of nostalgic small-town tourism. Conference attendees listened to speakers who touted attracting a young, creative class of artists and entrepreneurs. Experts waited for the telecommuters who never came. Economic development officials hustled for small manufacturing plants that sometimes didn't pay much.

Population growth strategies of any kind seem to a lousy track record. I'm not too concerned since this is a policy frontier. And I still think the boomerang migration incubator is a winning idea. But I won't forget that we are just beginning to look at this problem with methodical analysis instead of the usual brain drain hysteria.

Beware of boondoggles and snake oil salespeople selling a cure for out-migration.

Rust Belt Job Hunting

2009-12-05T10:51:00.002-05:00

Christine Borne contacted me via email and asked me a few questions about my boomerang migrant incubator idea. She comments on yesterday's blog post and you can get the gist of her line inquiry. Not every boomerang migrant is or wants to be an entrepreneur or a freelancer.

The bottom line is that Big City is likely the best place for conventional job seekers. Ms. Borne bristles at the prospect:

There is a odd and ruthless undercurrent at work here. One that says, if you're not willing to leave your home and family in the pursuit of cold hard cash, you're being sentimental and backwards, a drain on society. There's an expectation in America that if you're not willing to relocate to look for work, there's something wrong with you. Maybe I'm just being sensitive, but I feel like the Rust Belt is hit the hardest by this idea, because more so than any other region, we were defined not by our character or our land, but by our industry. By our jobs.

The move to improve is a great economic strategy, but there is more to life than income. I'm not sure what the answer is for those who cannot or are unwilling to create their own job. I'm inclined to think that most of us have to choose between place and career. The relationship between the two variables is a zero-sum game. In a sense, living where you want to live is an entrepreneurial act. You find a way to make it work.

Not to be all doom and gloom this morning, there might be another way. I suggested to Ms. Borne that boomerang migrants could be better networked. Talking with people who share your pain or predicament is a good approach to a creative solution. Imagine a Cleveland Boomerang Club. Someone who wants to move back could contact this group full of members who have the same vision for their hometown. They are motivated to grow their ranks and help another return. In essence, they build the city they most desire. My boomerang pioneers, the entrepreneurs, will need talent to grow the business. But the position will likely still require a career leap. There is still a compromise to make.

MPowered Boomerang Migrants

2009-12-04T13:33:00.002-05:00

Back in late October, I looked at university entrepreneurship programs that aim to benefit the host community. Montana State is producing entrepreneurs only to see them leave for greener pastures. I see a similar story in Ann Arbor, Michigan:

MPowered began a few years ago when two students had a dream to make Ann Arbor the Silicon Valley of the Midwest. Today, it’s a student group at the University of Michigan that gives members the skills they need to become entrepreneurs. It has almost 100 members and is growing fast. ...

... “So it doesn’t matter if people want to start their own business or go into finance or go into engineering or become a musician, people always need leader. People need that creative mindset, people who actually can lead and make that first step. We feel that we are actually instilling that unique quality into students and I feel like that is really invaluable,” Chan said.

And if these students stay in Michigan and start a business here, that’s a double win for the state.

Of course, that's a big "if". I will tell Michigan the same suggestion I made for Montana. MPowered should train (prospective) boomerang migrants to be entrepreneurs. Finding a way to make a living in your hometown or home state is tough. And Rust Belt communities could use more risk takers. Moving back is a lot like managing a startup.

The biggest dividend is educating entrepreneurs who will live and work in Michigan. Young college graduates are the most likely to leave the state. Why not invest in the people who are the most highly motivated to move there?

Shrinking City Brain Gain

2009-12-02T12:49:00.006-05:00

Both Null Space and the Cuyahoga County Planning Commission Weblog reference a report titled, "Immigrants and the Economy: Contribution of Immigrant Workers to the Country’s 25 Largest Metropolitan Areas". Chris Briem notes, "Pittsburgh ranked number 1 in terms of the net benefit of international immigrants to the regional economy." One of the comments takes a pessimistic view:

I hate to be negative, but the study also shows pgh has the smallest share of the labor force among the 25 metros. And, of course, if trends keep up pgh will be out of the top 25 in five years (replaced by Orlando).

Pittsburgh confounds common (i.e. rudimentary) demographic analysis. The headlines remind us that the population is shrinking and more people are leaving the region than moving into it. This is interpreted as an indication of economic weakness and that the leadership is doing something wrong. Briem often posts in vain why all this anxiety completely misses a more important story:

Seriously, there are today roughly 300K jobs located within the city limits of Pittsburgh, which is roughly the exact number of jobs that were located in the city in 1960. Few cities like Pittsburgh can claim any such comparison. When you realize that a lot of those jobs in 1960 were retail and service jobs supporting the much larger population, then the ability of Pittsburgh to retain jobs is a remarkable story.

That's nice, but the population is shrinking! Never mind that since 1970 educational attainment and per capita income are dramatically improved, out-pacing Pittsburgh's Rust Belt cohort. Further citing Bill Testa's work, a similar story exists concerning immigration:

The numbers of immigrants may be small, but the impact is disproportionately large. That might help to explain why some are calling for the creation of an entrepreneurship visa. From Vivek Wadhwa:

Richard Herman, a Cleveland-based immigration attorney and co-author of the upcoming book Immigrant, Inc.—Why Immigrant Entrepreneurs Are Driving the New Economy (and how they will save the American worker), says that allowing thousands of founders to get special immigration status could spur sufficient economic activity and innovation to realize billions of dollars in real economic gains for this country within a short time span. We're talking years, not decades.

How palatable would such a program be politically? U.S. Representative Jared Polis (D-Colo.), himself a former entrepreneur, is developing legislation to make it easier for foreign founders of investor-backed startups to secure visas to remain in the U.S. On the other end of the political spectrum, even Newt Gingrich, the Republican former Speaker of the House, has blogged about the need to make the country "more accessible to skilled immigrants." He wrote this after witnessing "the dynamic entrepreneurial and high-tech business culture in Tokyo, Beijing, and Seoul"—countries with which we are competing for top talent. Representatives of both ends of the political spectrum can agree on this issue.

Relative to the population of the entire world, the numbers of "top talent" are very small. The issue is total numbers of in-migration, but the quality of that in-migration. The result is a wealthier and more productive city that no one notices because its population declines every year. Considering all of the above, perhaps you can see how my proposed boomerang migration incubator could work.

Burgh Energy Report: Shale Gas Economics

2009-12-03T17:18:00.002-05:00

GlobalPittsburgh relays the press release that speaks to Southwestern Pennsylvania's coming energy boom. It isn't a question of if, mostly a matter of how big. There are already reports of "explosive growth" of the LNG industry in Australia. What does that have to do with Pittsburgh? Funny you should ask:

America’s natural-gas stocks are at record highs and prices have collapsed. The country, one authority proclaimed in July, suddenly has 100 years of supply. There is even talk of converting planned import terminals for gas into export terminals.

To say that speculators are bullish on shale gas and LNG exporting is an understatement. All the excitement provides a wonderful example of the globalization of energy markets:

Production of natural gas from shale has dramatically changed the U.S. energy resource picture, and although experience elsewhere is limited* it is increasingly obvious that this not just a North American story. Nick Grealy, at No Hot Air, considers the implications for the UK.

UK energy security is an American domestic issue. Drill, baby, drill all you want. That won't insulate our country from the rest of the world. We will still have geopolitical interests in European gas supply or Chinese demand for Australian resources. And sooner rather than later, Pittsburgh will be one of the global centers for all this activity.

Allegheny Conference Misstep

2009-12-01T14:09:00.002-05:00

From The Tribune-Review:

The Allegheny Conference on Community Development said today it has formed an organization to create jobs by leveraging the region's energy resources.

Called the Energy Alliance of Southwestern Pennsylvania, the group will coordinate various local activities to foster energy innovation, production and manufacturing, it said.

Great, but the looming problem is a talent shortage in the energy industry. Review how Calgary, Alberta dealt with its energy boom. Or, talk to Westinghouse in Cranberry. What's the plan to attract workers? The ACCD isn't saying.

Immigration As Leading Economic Indicator

2009-12-01T12:35:00.002-05:00

Tracking the US immigration numbers for signs of recovery bears fruit:

The 20,000 H-1B advanced degree exemption closed several weeks ago. As reported previously on this blog, employers should immediately assess whether they have any H-1B needs--including whether to file H-1B petitions for F-1 students working pursuant to OPT status early, as well as other candidates who may require H-1B processing--as next year the cap may be reached early if the economy continues to improve.

As far as I can ascertain, domestic migration is much more sluggish in seeking emerging opportunities. Of course, immigration queues usually represent pent up demand. But that doesn't seem to apply to the H-1B visa program.

Suburban Failure

2009-12-01T12:06:00.002-05:00

Instead of pooling in the core, the poor are increasingly on the urban periphery:

Of particular note, the [article] discusses the significant increases in food stamp receipt occurring in many suburban communities, now that a majority of the nation’s metropolitan poor live outside central cities. Indeed, the counties in which food stamp receipt has doubled, and which have at least 5,000 recipients today, are largely suburbs--around Atlanta, Florida’s Gulf Coast, Austin, and Youngstown. As my colleagues Elizabeth Kneebone and Emily Garr reported earlier this year, however, increases in food stamp enrollment in outer suburban counties have been somewhat lower than might be expected based on the rapid unemployment increases they have suffered. Lack of familiarity, distance to the nearest welfare office, stigma, or real eligibility differences may be to blame for under-enrollment in these farther-out areas.

The mention of Youngstown caught my eye. The pattern cuts across every American city. This raised doubts in my mind about the hypothesis that place-making projects are displacing the middle class from central cities around the country. In the December issue of Planning (not yet online), the executive director and CEO of the American Planning Association succinctly describes the concern on a global scale:

Lacking good governance, [the most vulnerable] are often the victims of an end-state type of planning that seeks to sanitize and beautify cities at their expense.

I think Aaron Renn highlights this problem in an American context in his latest New Geography article. Via my experience with the local planning and zoning commission, I can vouch for how real estate interests dominate our deliberations. But the result isn't a gentrifying core that pushes out the underclass. Far from it. There are plenty of residential areas around town that someone living on a meager income can afford. The same could be said about Youngstown (to state it mildly).

The mentioned push factors of migration don't add up. More likely, greater numbers of the rural poor are moving into cheap suburban tracts and those who moved out of the Braddocks of the world for a better life are now experiencing extreme economic duress. The most distressed neighborhoods tend to be the most geographically immobile. Those being priced out of town wouldn't travel all that far. More likely, they'll find another part of the city where real estate is still cheap or they will find a way to mitigate costs in the current residence.

The Creative Class displacement is overstated.

Brain Drain Report: Boomerang Michigan

2009-12-01T11:23:00.002-05:00

Florida needs to talk with New Jersey. At the bottom (I hope it's the bottom) of the Great Recession, I see the Sun Belt going down the road all too familiar to Frost Belt states. To wit:

For many of Florida's top high school graduates, attending college in state, where tuition is cheap and financial assistance is generous, seems like a no-brainer.

But hefty tuition increases and changes to Bright Futures scholarships could prompt more students to go out of state, potentially costing Florida some of its most talented students and future workers.

You might remember my recent post about New Jersey wondering if such subsidies actually worked or might be unfair to high school graduates who are more likely to stay instate. I suspect the usual funding gambit (brain drain boondoggle) is being used in Florida. Regardless, the policy logic is deeply flawed. Superstars come and go, but getting more adults into community college is worthy of investment.

Which brings me to yesterday's promise to further explore Michigration:

I work in government workforce development, which basically means I’m surrounded by a lot of self-proclaimed old white guys. All of these men ask how can we save Michigan? How we can transform Michigan? How we can revitalize Michigan? And how we can attract and retain “talent”?

So, as a 20-something blonde female who graduated from Michigan State University and has made my home and career in greater Lansing, I’m often held up as a poster child for said talent. As the end result of what good things will come to Michigan if more people like me stay. “See, she’s smart and talented and spends money in the community and values the arts… let’s get more of her!”

And yes, I intended to leave Michigan after graduation, so maybe I really am the poster child. I grew up in Illinois and when my family moved to Michigan in middle school, I still considered Illinois my home. I planned to return, but somehow I ended up at MSU. And then I planned to go to New York or Chicago after graduation, but I got a job, and met a boy, and settled down here. That was seven years ago. ...

...And now, with equity in my home and a solid career, I’m watching a lot of my friends boomerang back to Michigan. They’re in debt up to their eyeballs because of extravagant lifestyles with high costs of living. They’ve been saddled with D.C. and California size mortgages. They have no connections and are struggling to find jobs. They’re lonely, so they call me a lot, and I feel bad because a lot of the time I’m already busy with my “other” friends. I kind of want to say to the boomerangers, “See, you should have stayed too…” but I don’t.

I see lots of plans to reach out to the brains who left, but few (if any) ideas about how to facilitate the boomerang migration. The prevailing attitude, articulated above, is still "you shouldn't have left." What to do about the superstars who will, inevitably, leave?

I know for certain that retention isn't the answer. Your latest brain drain plug initiative will fail. Instead, I suggest building a boomerang migration incubator. The idea is starting to get noticed in other policy circles. I hope to scale up what I'm doing in Youngstown to the entire state of Ohio. But any shrinking Rust Belt city would be a good candidate for the program. I'd love to see it come to fruition in my hometown of Erie (PA). But perhaps Flint would be interested?

My Battle In Seattle

2009-11-30T16:33:00.002-05:00

I've got a bunch of articles about brain drain and a Burgh Energy Report update. I'll get to those, and more, later this week. Today's the last day of my blog homage to Richard Herman's new book, "Immigrant, Inc." I'll remind you that the book launch party is next Monday. I wish I could be there. Also, Richard would appreciate your vote for his book (takes just 30 seconds to do).

During November, I think I've focused more on the globalization theme than international migration. For a variety of reasons, I've got globalization on the brain. Today is the 10th-year anniversary of the shutdown of the WTO Ministerial in Seattle. There are a lot of stories in the press commemorating the event and I had a hard time finding one that could serve as a good sounding board for my own reflections. I settled on this celebration of US Senator Sherrod Brown because both of us were there during the riots and both us are working to address brain drain concerns in Ohio:

Fair Trade is vital to our nation's economic future.

Trade can create new jobs in exporting industries, but trade can destroy jobs when imports replace the output of domestic firms. Because current trade policy has accelerated the trade deficit, eliminated manufacturing jobs, and stagnated wages, more jobs have been displaced by imports than created by exports. The United States has lost more than 3 million manufacturing jobs since 2000 – that's one in six good paying jobs.

Trade deals like NAFTA, CAFTA and China PNTR were written and negotiated by multinational corporations and lack protections for workers, the environment, and food and product safety.

Those are Brown's words. He was part of the union march against the WTO and he has seen how globalization can ravage a community. In 1999, I shared the same sentiments. I was about two years removed from a lobbyist internship with Amnesty International in Washington, DC. A friend of mine from my stint at the University of Vermont was a staffer for "Socialist Congressman" Bernie Sanders. You can get a sense of his pro-labor activism here. He made enough of an impression upon me that I tried to push Amnesty International to back the anti-globalization movement. Ironically, AI would eventually join the cause and I've come to think that the expansion of their mission was a mistake. That's another story for another time.

As a graduate trainee in the Globalization and Democratization program at the University of Colorado, I intended to go to Seattle to study international civil society. My impressions of economic globalization were beginning to moderate, but I was mainly interested in how citizens could engage in the debate about global policy. Globalization from below resonated with me and my experience in DC. I felt that people had a great deal of power to influence governments. The conversation about trade was too exclusive, all the way up to developing countries such as India. I understood how the United States was dictating the terms (see hegemonic stability theory or Washington Consensus). The political forum of the WTO struck me as grossly unfair.

Whatever romantic view I had of the anti-globalization movement, the Battle in Seattle dispelled them. I went over completely to the dark side. As I'm sure my more regular readers can tell, I'm pro-globalization.

Like Senator Brown, I'm from a community run over by globalization: Erie, PA. My father managed to stay employed as an engineer for General Electric until retirement (albeit a premature one), but we couldn't stay in our hometown. Erie is one of the many communities that globalization has left behind. But I'm not nostalgic for the way of life that was razed. I merely regret that most of the warriors equipped to benefit from globalization had left the Rust Belt.

That perspective was forged in Seattle. I looked at and analyzed all the documents various protest groups and NGOs had published. There wasn't any coherent narrative. Instead, the world views were highly polarized. The only thing these strange bedfellows (e.g. labor and environmentalists) had in common was an enemy: The World Trade Organization. Take away the object of all the anger and international civil society would quickly Balkanize. At least, that was the conclusion of my research.

Few people I interviewed had any idea how to define globalization or knew what the WTO was charged to do. There was a dramatic democratic deficit (something the India-based NGOs barked unheeded). The opaque bureaucracy fueled wild conspiracy theories. I started to think about the glaring need for global civics education and a better understanding of geopolitics and international political economy. That became my crusade once I returned to university and resumed teaching.

Ultimately, that proved to be unsatisfying. As much as I enjoy lecturing about globalization, my students didn't need my help. I started thinking about more disadvantaged populations such as those still trapped inside of the Rust Belt. I did get a chance to get in front of community college students and teach my unique take on world regional geography. I loved it.

Thus, I'm greatly encouraged by Richard Longworth, the blogger and the work of the Global Midwest Initiative. Through that lens, we might begin to better grapple with Fair Trade policy and how to best revive Ohio. Along those lines, I would suggest the model developed by a University of Michigan undergraduate exploring the brain drain problem in that state. The latest guest essay blew me away with its frank discussion of workforce development issues. (More about that tomorrow) I can easily ascertain the information and knowledge gaps while taking note of some innovative thinking that could attract more talent to Rust Belt communities.

In other words, the shortcomings of various policy options on the table are obvious and open to more people for debate. I'm hoping that Richard Longworth's baby is the kind of political space that was so obviously lacking during the Battle in Seattle. If we can learn anything from the riots, I hope it is the need for an inclusive forum concerning globalization which I consider to be the great debate of our time.

Celebrating Brain Drain

2009-11-29T10:44:00.002-05:00

New Jersey is debating the wisdom of financial incentives that keep the brightest high school student in the state. Our model for workforce development is broken. The investment in local talent is paying big dividends in Texas and Colorado, but not in New Jersey. There has to be a better way. There is:

Indo-US ties have for decades been driven by individuals and corporations, rather than governments. During the Cold War, India's governmental relations were warm with the USSR and cool with the US. But a million Indians migrated to the US while none went to the USSR. Indians galore went to US universities, enjoyed American books and music, and got jobs in US firms. They got on well with Americans, but had no such affinity with Russians. Thus, person-to-person relations strengthened Indo-US ties even when the two governments bickered. With the end of the Cold War, the relationship grew: The two governments caught up with the people. They still had strong differences (Pokharan II, the Iraq war) but found natural affinities too.

Indian migration to the US was once castigated as a brain drain. More recently, it has been rechristened brain circulation, with many migrants returning to India. Economist Deena Khatkhate (see his book Money, Finance, Political Economy) was among the earliest to contest the brain drain thesis. He saw the exodus as a safety valve for educated Indians unable to find enough jobs in India's licence-permit raj. He also highlighted the way the Indian Diaspora catalysed changes in social, political and economic attitudes in India, paving the way for economic reform.

It now seems that the Diaspora played an even bigger role: It changed US attitudes. The brain drain steadily increased the number of influential Indians in the US. Indo-US economic relations and the size and clout of the Diaspora grew fast together, most prominently in Silicon Valley.

The relationship between India and its Diaspora has been rocky. Those who emigrated to the United States were characterized as abandoning their country, their culture. The result is a large population caught between two nations, belonging to neither the place of birth nor the current place of residence. These people inhabit a liminal, global space; the New Argonauts at the frontier of globalization.

In this regard, India and New Jersey could be similar. Instead of luring native talent to state colleges and universities, spend that money on cultivating a global network. Better yet, subsidize the export of the best high school graduates to important centers of innovation. These ambassadors can remake New Jersey's image while connecting the state to new business opportunities. Those who go the furthest away from home will make the best entrepreneurs. They will always remember who gave them a leg up, providing New Jersey with an avenue to recoup its investment in human capital that was going to leave anyhow.

Green Urban Frontier

2009-11-27T11:07:00.002-05:00

I'm still trying to get Blogger to unlock my Youngstown blog. While I navigate the bureaucracy, I'll post some of queue content here. Youngstown is my archetype for Rust Belt economic redevelopment. It has strong urban frontier assets, much like what you used to find in the Sun Belt. The Mahoning Valley still has substantial legacy costs, to be sure. But there is also ample space to realize just about any vision you might have.

I recognize that the Youngstown value proposition is still a vague concept. Perhaps the story of Vandergrift, PA can provide some clarity:

Imagine: It's 1895. A steel baron hires New York's Central Park designer Frederick Law Olmsted to build a town in western Pennsylvania where mill workers can live, work and play. By the turn of the century, Vandergrift's rounded buildings and roads flow along the contours of the Kiskiminetas River.

Reality: Pretty much all that's left of that town is in the imagination.

So 114 years later, Vandergrift residents — from baby boomers who grew up during the town's heyday to students as young as their grandchildren — are reviving Olmsted's vision and making the community environmentally sustainable for the 21st century and beyond.

Their goal is to attract people to live or shop in the boutiques of the quaint town of just 5,000 people — which lost residents, jobs and allure along with steel.

From bringing back green spaces paved-over for parking to seeking how to harness electrical energy for the town from the fast-flowing river, Vandergrift is investing millions toward environmentally sustainable revitalization — a concept gaining popularity in Rust Belt towns that have few viable options for renewal.

"This community is such a wonderful template for demonstrating (sustainability) not just for themselves, but, I think, way outside of Vandergrift," said University of Pittsburgh professor Lisa Mauck Weiland, looking over the skeletal wooden remains of what was once a JCPenney. The building is now the object of a "green" renovation with the input of students from Pitt and a local high school.

Vandergrift isn't a totally blank canvas (neither is Youngstown, by the way). There is an impressive foundation, great bones on which to build another wonderful city. The Rust Belt is full of such opportunities, but the local political climate isn't always conducive to embracing the radical makeover. Buffalo might be a good example of this drag on civic innovation. Then again, it might offer another example of the trend.

Ironically, what differentiates one Rust Belt opportunity from another is the thoroughness of economic devastation. The key part of the passage about Vandergrift is the sense of desperation. What else can the community do?

Another piece is a champion who will lead the charge:

"This community is such a wonderful template for demonstrating (sustainability) not just for themselves, but, I think, way outside of Vandergrift," said University of Pittsburgh professor Lisa Mauck Weiland, looking over the skeletal wooden remains of what was once a JCPenney. The building is now the object of a "green" renovation with the input of students from Pitt and a local high school.

While many communities are embracing sustainable revitalization, Vandergrift's strategy is all-encompassing: to create an energy independent, ecologically low-impact, economically viable town from the ashes of its postindustrial wasteland. It aims to renovate buildings with sustainable materials, from carpet textiles to solar roof panels. A farmers market has been expanded. Trees are being planted and green spaces recovered.

Perhaps the most ambitious is the river energy project. With Weiland's guidance and a grant from the National Science Foundation, University of Pittsburgh students are seeking to exploit the hydrokinetic forces of the Kiski River to offset energy costs downtown, without building dams or coal-burning electrical facilities.

There is still something missing. What's the strategy for attracting newcomers? I think I've discovered a new policy muse.

Social Media And Economic Development: Youngstown Case

2009-11-25T17:11:00.003-05:00

Over the past year, I've had the opportunity to learn a little about the world of economic development. How professionals become practitioners is a post for another time. Today, I want to explore the social media frontier:

The survey results clearly indicate that social media is still a "new thing" for economic developers. While 57 percent of respondents use social media in their organization's communications efforts, most of this use has only begun in the past year. In fact, of those using social media, only 37 percent of respondents have used social media for longer than one year. As DCI President and Chief Creative Officer Andy Levine noted, "Economic development groups are just getting their feet wet with social media. We're in the very early days of this work." ...

... The survey results suggest that social media is going to be a core part of future communication programs for economic developers, and this shift will require a new mindset. As Levine notes, "Social media requires a quick response, and moving quickly means some loss of control. Some economic developers are uncomfortable with this shift." He expects that social media will play an especially important role in crisis response. To date, no economic development group has faced a major public relations crisis akin to that facing corporations such as JetBlue's flight delays in winter 2007 or Wall Street's financial firms responding to criticisms of exorbitant pay packages. But, if an organization does face a major crisis, social media will have to be part of an effective crisis control effort.

Finally, Levine expects to see a lot of innovations in the use of social media. For example, he envisions that communities could create "digital ambassadors" to discuss the benefits of living and working in a certain region or community. These ambassadors, people who have many Facebook followers or LinkedIn connections, would serve as a very credible advocate for local economic development efforts. He expects to see lots of experimentation and new approaches over the next several years.

I wouldn't characterize myself as an expert in either of the fields of economic development and social media. However, I do consider myself to be one of the pioneers at the intersection of the two trades with a bit more experience with the social media community:

Rust Belt Bloggers
The meet and greet was Friday (7/11) at the BrewErie. It was a good icebreaker to hang out over fine craft beverages with Dale Hannah, Jim Russell, Chris Briem, Michael Mahler, Locobone and Justin. Saturday was the main event and in addition to the Friday night crew, we were joined by Phil Kidd, Janko and Hunter Morrison (Center for Urban and Regional Studies at Youngstown State University) from Youngstown and our Pittsburgh blogger in podcamp crime, Cindy. Most of the meeting was giving our introductions and a brief overview of who we are, our backgrounds and what we’re looking to accomplish. I was hoping that Erie would have had more of a presence since they played host but I also understand people were called away for the weekend. eh, it’s the first one, they have time to redeem

The surprise of the summit for me was the pitch thrown out by Youngstown. Yeah I know, you’re thinking “wtf, Youngstown? Isn’t that a haven for mobsters“. That was my thinking also until I talked to these guys. I was 100% sold that I need to get up there and check things out. The youth movement (40 and under) have taken over the city and it’s now a hot bed of untapped resources to make a viable force. Did I mention they’re opening a new brewery too Listening to how passionate they are about Y-town I was ready to go that day. Again, that is saying A LOT for me!

Overall I think this was a great starting point for those of us in the Rust Belt to get moving forward (and… DRINK). The key item is that it doesn’t turn into another “yeah, we had this idea once” and then bask in the gloriousness of that weekend. It did show me that I have an interest in redevelopment, just a matter of finding out how to use my skills to be effective.

The Rust Belt Bloggers Summit was a humble yet inspiring experience. My interest shifted from Pittsburgh to Youngstown, the hotbed for social media informed economic development. Social media initiatives are a dime a dozen. In Youngstown, it made (is making) a big difference.

The Reuters Great Recession Tour is winding down with Youngstown being the second to last stop before terminating in Evansville, Indiana. The Youngstown Business Incubator gets its due, but the economic redevelopment narrative starts here:

For years the city spent time casting around for the next big company to come and save it, hoping that it could regain its former glory.

But new leaders like Mayor Williams have decided on a new way forward, with a strategy called Plan 2010.

“We have accepted that this is a smaller city and have embraced that,” said James Cossler, CEO of the Youngstown Business Incubator, which has focused on bringing in business-to-business software companies and currently has 28 firms in its portfolio.

Crossley said that the incubator has already encouraged many younger former residents, who have been leaving for decades to look for work, to come home again.

The new plan also involves painful decisions for a city that has some 4,500 vacant homes and neighborhoods that have been coming apart at the seams for years. With limited resources to cover fewer residents, the city’s leadership and other have come to the conclusion that some neighborhoods simply don’t have enough people left to remain viable.

“We are aiming to focus on the neighborhoods that can be saved,” said Phil Kidd, a community organizer at the nonprofit group Mahoning Valley Organizing Collaborative. “But we have to accept the fact that we are going to have to wind down some neighborhoods gracefully.”

The MVOC is trying to organize residents to form into groups and drive much of the change themselves because the city cannot afford to do everything itself.

“We’re all in this together, so we’re going to have fix our problems together,” Kidd said.

I highlighted the part of the passage where I come in ("Cossler" not "Crossley"). But the focus should be on Phil Kidd and the Defend Youngstown crew. While I'm late to the party, I know a good thing when I see it.

There is a great deal of interest in channeling the social media revolution towards productive ends. If you want to see what that future looks like, then go to Youngstown and look up Phil Kidd. There are other people who should be celebrated, but Phil is the face of the movement. Not to take anything away from Cossler, Mayor Jay Williams, and Congressman Tim Ryan; Phil is the spoon that stirs the cauldron of innovation that is the Mahoning Valley.

Youngstown is the most exciting place I've visited this side of Berlin. I believe in what they are doing there. Time for the American Planning Association to figure out what is going on in the Yo.

Happy Boomerang Day

2009-11-27T10:09:00.002-05:00

A recent World Bank economic development report, "Reshaping Economic Geography" begins with the US Thanksgiving story. 35 million people get into cars or hop on planes in order to make the journey home. This annual boomerang migration is used as an indicator of economic prosperity. The dramatic brain drain is good for the nation. The World Bank then lays out some policy prescriptions that would allow developing countries to foster increasing geographic mobility within their borders.

Internationally, brain drain is also good ... for the entire world. The global economy grows faster with more talent migration. This pattern scales well, from the local on up. In the United Kingdom, we have one story and two headlines:

"Record number of people leaving Britain".

"Rise in immigrants coming to UK, ONS data shows".

See if you can match the article passage quote with the headline:

For those leaving the country, Australia, Poland, Germany, Spain and France had been the most popular countries to head to in 2008, the ONS said.

That year saw the highest number of people emigrate since 1991, the first year with comparable records.

The ONS said there had been a large increase in the number of people emigrating for work-related reasons, particularly those with a fixed job to go to.

And ...

The number of non-Britons leaving the country has risen by 50% from 169,000 in 2007 to 255,000 last year.

Home Office minister Phil Woolas said the figures showed immigrants were coming to the UK to work and then returning home.

I'll give you a hint. Which passage (and headline) sounds more nativist? I see the same slant in the States concerning brain drain. Highlighting the out-migration makes for the more sensational headline. The obsession of the people leaving often glosses over all the people who are coming. Massage the numbers to suit your preferred narrative. Submit your policy recommendation.

I'm guilty of the same deception. Akin to the World Bank, I take the perspective that brain drain offers an opportunity and that it should be encouraged. In the UK story, I see workers returning home to Poland, bringing back experience and a more global network. Polish prosperity is sure to follow.

Happy Boomerang Day!

Immigrant, Inc. Book Launch Party

2009-11-23T13:41:00.000-05:00

What: A book launch party

Why: To celebrate a book that will change the way America looks at immigrants

When: 6 pm, Monday, December 7

Immigrants and their friends from throughout Northeast Ohio will gather at an Ohio City nightclub Monday, December 7, to welcome a book that tells their success story.

Richard Herman and Robert Smith will team up with their publisher, John Wiley & Sons, to celebrate the launch of Immigrant Inc. -- Why Immigrant Entrepreneurs Are Driving the New Economy (and how they will save the American worker).

The book highlights the accomplishments of immigrant entrepreneurs across the country, including several business founders in Northeast Ohio, as it reveals the astonishing success of immigrants in the New Economy and their power to create jobs, new industries, and to lift communities.

India's Businessworld magazine finds that Immigrant, Inc. breaks new ground:

The book goes beyond praising talented immigrants to explore their mindset, cultural specificities and their high level of determination and innovative thinking. The book also touches upon the issue of anti-immigration attitudes, in turn, suggesting how Americans need to tap their ‘inner immigrant’ to succeed.

Sponsors of the launch party include Huntington Bank, the high-tech trade group TiE Ohio, and the Hispanic Chambers of Commerce of Ohio. More than three dozen globally-minded civic and business groups have signed on as co-sponsors. (See attached flyer, also posted at http://www.scribd.com/doc/22678284/Flyer-Book-Launch-party-6-pm-December-7.)

“The authors’ passion comes through in this fantastic book that points to the power and importance of intercultural partnerships in a global economy,” says Connie Atkins, executive director of the Consortium of African American Organizations, which is co-sponsoring the launch party.

"This book, filled with stirring stories testifying to the ongoing power of the American Dream as a magnet, challenges us all to build an inclusive culture of welcome, access, opportunity and empowerment,” said Leonard M. Calabrese, president of Catholic Community Connection, another co-sponsor.

Lute Harmon, Sr., publisher of Inside Business and other magazines calls Immigrant, Inc. a "must-read." http://tiny.cc/1pSBz

The party runs from 6 to 9 p.m. at Speakeasy, a new nightclub beneath Bier Markt, at 1948 W. 25^th Street, across from the West Side Market. Partygoers will enjoy free appetizers and a cash bar. Copies of Immigrant, Inc. will be available for sale and for author signings.

Herman, an immigration lawyer, founded the Cleveland law firm of Richard T. Herman & Associates. Smith, a distinguished journalist, covers international cultures for The Plain Dealer.

To order their book beforehand, go to www.ImmigrantInc.com. To attend the book launch, please RSVP by emailing richard.t.herman@gmail.com. For more information, call 216-696-6170.

Interstate Talent Wars

2009-11-21T15:56:00.002-05:00

Chris Briem (Null Space) sees an evolution of the Pittsburgh global brand in a Christian Science Monitor article. Again, Pittsburgh is shown in a positive light and the preferred myth celebrated in during the G-20 hype has taken root. Reinvented Pittsburgh is now a cliché. Solely my own speculation, but the groundwork is in place for substantially more in-migration. I still think there is a talent rush in the pipeline.

Actually, something else in the CSM piece about the urban archetypes of the "new economy" piqued my interest:

Demographics will drive change, too. Cities that have expensive housing may find themselves at a disadvantage in attracting young people. “We’re going to be facing what I call the third civil war – it’s going to be a war between cities and metro areas over where young people will settle, because we’re going to have to fill a lot of jobs,” says Barry Bluestone, an economist at Northeastern University in Boston.

Many of these young workers will be going to places where they sense a think-outside-the-box culture. “It’s hard to be a dynamic economy if you’re a culture that does not tolerate risk,” says Susannah Malarkey, who heads a trade group, the Technology Alliance, in Seattle.

First thing you should notice is that there is no mention of retaining young people. Cities that spend any bandwidth on plugging the brain drain will be on the losing side of the war for talent. It's a futile effort with very little (if any) upside.

The second point is the looming talent shortage. Everyone sees it coming, but the suggested coping strategies come up woefully short. I've yet to see any outside-the-box thinking when it concerning talent attraction. The usual suspects are recycling the same tired material and cities continue to eat it up.

Lastly, moving far away to an unfamiliar place is part of the risk culture. This talent will be the greatest prize, not the graduates who stay close to home. A relatively inert population will not be able to compete in the new economy. Attract brains or fail.

Brain Drain Texas

2009-11-20T15:34:00.002-05:00

And you thought the brain drain was bad in Michigan:

Investing in our universities is investing in our future.

The development of more Tier One universities in Texas will give our brightest high school graduates more top-level choices for college educations in their home state, easing a brain drain of Texas young people to prestigious schools elsewhere.

If low taxes, small government and robust job creation won't keep talent from leaving, then what will? I recommend an internship program. That should plug the brain drain.

Flight Of The Kiwi

2009-11-20T12:23:00.002-05:00

Concerning brain drain from OECD countries, New Zealand stands head and shoulders above the rest. The primary destination is Australia, where Kiwis can earn a greater return on their education. The home country is getting serious about luring these expatriates back:

Last night, the economic think tank the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) held a forum in Sydney called ''Flight of the Kiwi to Australia'' to discuss ways of reversing the trans-Tasman brain drain. The former Fairfax chief executive and All Black captain David Kirk, CIS policy analyst Luke Malpass, business broadcaster Andrew Patterson, and Dr Don Turkington from the New Zealand Government's regulatory responsibility taskforce, canvassed issues such as wage disparity, tax structures, streamlining Anzac business, career prospects and social and cultural changes.

The CIS exploits the wounded pride, laying the talent exodus at the feet of lousy economic policy. People wouldn't leave if the homeland prospects were relatively brighter. Tapping brain drain anxiety for political gain is a classic ruse. For another example, see the Empire State Exodus report.

Plugging the brain drain is a snipe hunt. However, catalyzing boomerang migration could work. Trying to attract talent is an even better idea. Some policy innovation from Detroit:

Monika Johnson is 20 and the Midwest Coordinator for the Roosevelt Institute. It's a student-run policy organization that put together a two-day event called Midwest Version 2.0. ...

... "Detroit has so many great opportunities and potential for change," Johnson said. "In fifty years, this could be a great city. It could rival Chicago. I would consider staying in Michigan if I had an opportunity to participate in Detroit's revitalization."

Detroit is New Zealand and Chicago is Australia. The money is in Chicago, but Detroit offers a unique opportunity. Detroit shouldn't try to catch up with Chicago. Instead, offer a viable alternative experience. Call home all Rust Belt refugees to rebuild the region, starting with Detroit. Ironically, the CIS sets the stage with the following snarky comment:

Maybe New Zealand suffers from the supposed generation Y complex—we want it all, we want it now, and we want it at no cost.

That describes the frontier mentality. The urban pioneer lifestyle appeals to this demographic. Chasing Chicago is foolish. That ship has sailed. But Chicago can't be all things to all people, either.

Recovery Pittsburgh

2009-11-19T16:29:00.003-05:00

I'm locked out of my other blog while Blogger assesses whether or not I'm a spambot. I've become accustomed to posting twice-a-day and I have the itch to write. I'll circle back to Pittsburgh and how its coping with the Great Recession:

To form our list, we ranked the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas--geographic entities that the U.S. Office of Management and Budget defines and uses in collecting statistics--in five categories: unemployment rate, GMP (a measure of the size of a city's economy), foreclosures, home prices and sales rates.

We ranked September unemployment rates (the most recent available by metro) using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the percentage of a metro's homes in foreclosure with September data provided by RealtyTrac; and the change in GMP between the first and second quarter of 2009 from the Brookings Institution's MetroMonitor. We also included the second-quarter 2009 year-over-year change in Freddie Mac's ( FRE - news - people ) Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index--a measure of housing price inflation--and the average days on the market for properties currently on sale (to measure sales rates), using data from Zillow.com. We then averaged the scores for each measure to arrive at an overall ranking.

While there is no foolproof method for resisting recession, a common thread in thriving cities is an economy fed by multiple industries. Former Northeastern industrial hubs like Pittsburgh, and Rochester, N.Y., while they may not seem the likeliest models of economic health, have been able to supplement industrial sector decline with a boost from public-sector jobs that have pumped up the economy even as the private sector declined. They land in the fourth and seventh spot on our list, respectively.

The emerging theme is one of resilience, as opposed to the latest boomtown infatuation. Sustainable Pittsburgh is a great place to raise a family. Don't worry about bubbles popping or the other shoe dropping. What you see is what you get.

The humility grabbing a hold of the United States would seem to suit Pittsburgh, the economic tortoise outlasting the hare in Charlotte. Stranger for me is the pattern of recovery. The region of my youth (Appalachian Rust Belt) is, relatively speaking, thriving. This is the non-Midwestern part of America's manufacturing heartland.

Keep that in mind while reading Richard Longworth's challenge concerning Midwest studies:

I know that, all across the Midwest, good people are worrying about the same issues. They need help in thinking about these issues and where they fit into the Midwestern reality. If Midwesterners who are paid to think don't do this thinking, then it won't get done.

How might we rethink geographic regions in terms of globalization? Regions are dynamic, not static. Throw out the boundaries that no longer serve a purpose. Economic backwaters are easily defined. The Midwest has defied definition because of the heterogeneity. The migration from the rural South to the industrial North transformed both landscapes.

Regional studies is more anthropology than sociology. We're obsessing artifacts of a great civilization in decline. That's the definition of "Southern studies". Midwestern studies is yesterday's news.

Great Recession Geography: US Immigration

2009-11-19T13:56:00.002-05:00

Migration can be both a lagging and leading economic indicator. A lagging example is the continued arrival of newcomers to recession ravaged cities such as Charlotte (NC) and Portland (OR). International migration tends to be more sensitive to shifting fortunes with the most geographically mobile riding the bow wave:

USAToday reports that more Americans are seeking work abroad than in the past. Although “the trend reverses a longtime pattern of far more foreign workers seeking jobs in the U.S.” sounds like an overstatement, there are signs that Americans are more willing to consider working abroad. The country’s largest staffing company, Manpower, says it has 500 clients seeking overseas work, compared a few dozen six months ago. And a recent survey of executives in the U.S. revealed that 54 percent would be likely to take a job in another country, compared to 37 percent in 2005. The top prospects? India, China, Brazil, Dubai, and Singapore.

That trend stood out to me as indicative of a globalization reset, but the entire Brookings narrative seems to be pushing the same conclusion. I doubt the abatement of the usual immigration patterns will last. I expect the expatriate community to continue to grow.

The best talent will be attracted to the core of globalization, which is shifting from the United States to the countries listed above. Concern about brain drain from America would be novel. This might further exacerbate the populist mood swing and result in a larger drag on what is sure to be slow growth. The impressive domestic geographic mobility will be increasingly global.

Talent Dividend Ohio

2009-11-18T11:52:00.002-05:00

CEOs for Cities is in Columbus, Ohio to talk to the leadership there about the Talent Dividend. The policy recommendation is useful. Regions benefit economically from a greater concentration of brains. However, how to achieve that goal remains shrouded in mystery and myth:

ColumbusChamber CEO Ty Marsh, a participant in Wednesday’s discussions, said the importance of boosting the region’s talent pool stems from a growing desire among companies to set up shop in areas that can continue to produce viable job prospects.

“One of Columbus’ great assets has been the quality of its work force, but one of the opportunities and challenges of the new century is, ‘How do you attract them and how do you keep them?’ ” Marsh said.

Columbus would begin the effort, Marsh said, on strong footing with an internship pipeline with the state’s colleges and a better-than-average share of residents with four-year degrees.

The latest rage in fighting brain drain is a more effective (and well-funded) internship program. Allegedly, that's the reason for the Philadelphia Miracle. I took a snarky look at this talent retention strategy. Today, I'll take a more measured approach to revealing the folly.

I'll start with the usual hysterical fanfare:

Recent reports published by various entities including the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston show an alarming trend: The Greater Boston area is losing recent college graduates at a startling rate. The ability of an economic region to grow and thrive is largely due to these knowledge workers. The recent reports shed light on three distinct questions: Why are students engaged in Greater Boston higher education fleeing the state after graduation, where are they going, and what can be done to increase the retention rate within the region. This report seeks to provide answers to these questions.

Intern Bridge is the company behind this analysis. Surprisingly, there is cause for concern in Boston:

A separate analysis by William H. Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer, found that Dallas and Houston were attracting less-educated migrants and identified large brain drains from Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland and, to a lesser extent, New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago and Boston.

Meanwhile, Atlanta; Seattle; Austin, Tex.; San Francisco; and Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., were magnets for better-educated people who were relocating.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has suggested that internship programs could be an effective talent retention policy:

Still, contrary to the usual reasons offered to explain why individuals leave the Bay State, recent college graduates appear to be moving primarily to seek the best job opportunities. That suggests that states can take tangible steps to retain more recent college graduates.

One potential solution is to build stronger ties between colleges and local employers, to help graduates, particularly non-natives, learn about local job opportunities and form networks in the region. For example, the Colleges of Worcester Consortium in Massachusetts has expanded internship opportunities through an online regional database that students can tap into from any of the consortium’s 15 member institutions. Internships create a win-win-win situation, because they allow students to try out a job or firm, lower recruiting costs for employers, and enhance the reputation of a college or university.

There are a number of reasons why investing in internship programs is a good idea. But can it generate a talent dividend? I've been reading about the same line of thinking in Detroit at Generation Y Michigan. Michigan is engaged in its own internship efforts. Demographer Ken Darga brings some numbers to the discussion:

But Darga insists the problem is exaggerated. He says every state thinks it has a brain drain, but ignores the fact that migration rates for young people tend to be much higher than any other age group. Besides, he argues, the number of recent college graduates leaving has leveled out, and it’s a tiny percent of the total state population.

Greater Boston or Columbus or Detroit would have to retain a lot more college graduate to generate a 1% gain in the number of residents with a degree. Brain gain cities such as Atlanta; Seattle; Austin, Tex.; San Francisco; and Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C. aren't succeeding because they do a better job of keeping talent close to home.

Rust Belt cities are content to fight for table scraps. Columbus isn't talking about how to become a talent magnet. The primary initiative is to build a better dam. Thus, the brain gain game is over before it even gets started. I would add that no city or state is thinking about leveraging the migration trends that Darga describes. The only discussion I see is how to stop it.