Richard Florida Fires Back

Richard Florida has plenty of fans. He also has his detractors. I blogged about the controversy concerning Florida's creativity index and the Milken Institute's urban performance rankings. I didn't make clear the distinction I see between the two data sets. I understand the creativity index as a predictive model. I see the Milken numbers as a measure past performance. Rich finally responded to the criticism in the Globe and Mail, confirming my suspicion:

At bottom, the basic difference between the Milken measure of best-performing cities and my own creativity index stems from what we try to measure. The Milken measure attempts to gauge year-over-year economic performance through factors like employment growth. My creativity index focuses on the key factors that shape economic development in the long-run.

The debate about causality and correlation aside, calling out Rich because his results don't mirror Milken's struck me as shoddy thinking. However, I was more interested in the Memphis story. Stakeholders in Memphis expressed dismay about their rankings in the Milken Report. They expended to see a dividend from applying Florida's empirical research.

Should better results in the creativity index lead to a rise in the Milken rankings? If so, what is the time frame for improvement?

Bollystan

My interest in diaspora networks started with the works of Salman Rushdie. Rushdie is one of the seminal writers in the postcolonial genre. Rushdie provided me with an introduction to postcolonial theory and postcolonial geography. From Rushdie's ideas spring forth Liminal Youngstown and other post-industrial landscapes where the seeds of Rust Belt revitalization are planted. What I find most compelling is the economy that exists between two places, India and everywhere else:

Arguably the rest of the world is feeling the Indian diaspora's rise more than India itself. Lakshmi Mittal bought Luxembourg steel giant Arcelor, Tata bought Jaguar, and Reliance Petroleum is building what will become the world's largest refinery. But these family-run conglomerates, like Greek shipping magnates or modern multinationals, are enriching themselves far more than their home countries. Powerful Indians connect in stateless nodes, virtually and in airport lounges, building networks of technology and finance with no need for India itself as the middleman. As the Indian diaspora globalizes itself further, seven hundred million Indians remain distantly marginalized from the globalization equation. Meanwhile, Satyam, a leading Indian outsourcing vendor, is building goodwill in America by setting up training centers and hiring tech workers in Ohio.

I imagine powerful Pittsburghers connecting in stateless nodes, the ungeography of globalizaiton. There is no need to wait for parochial Pittsburgh to untangle itself. I'm watching Liminal Pittsburgh blossom online, growth evading the usual metrics. The wayward Yinzer is finding success throughout the world. And like India, Pittsburgh is ambivalent.

Take a gander at this map of "Bollystan," the powerful Indian Diaspora. Mapping is not a knowledge-neutral exercise. It is a builder of identity and pathway for trust. It is also a powerful fiction, as Rushdie articulates in Midnight's Children. Somewhere, out there, is Yinzerstan. But you won't find it in Pittsburgh.

Brain Drain: Long Island

I'm curious about the brain drain plaguing the regions surrounding New York City. Is the Big Apple really all that? Long Island is reeling:

Long Island's brain drain is getting worse.

According to statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau, the region continues to have the highest rate of decline of residents 25-to-44 years of age in the state. The Island has lost 19 percent, or nearly 160,000, of its residents in that age group since 2000.

To compare, the average rate of decline in New York City was 2.24 percent, and the drop in the other New York suburbs was 14.43 percent, nearly 5 percent below Long Island's precipitous drop.

Nationally, the rate of decline for people between 25-and-44 years of age was 1.93 percent.

The city is where the young professional demographic resides. They are fleeing the burbs. However, NYC is a bit below the national average. There are a number of cities that would be shrinking if not for immigration.

The other part of the story is that Long Island has a lot of the costs of, say, Manhattan, but none of the benefits. Why pay for expensive real estate only to commute into the city? I'm wondering if Rust Belt cities have similar disparities between the core city and the burb periphery in terms of the 25-44 demographic.

Blog Release: Cleveburgh Regional Learning Network

From Janko:

SAVE THE DATE! MORE INFORMATION AND REGISTRATION TO FOLLOW.

Friday, November 7, 2008

9:00am to 4:30pm

At the Youngstown Club, Youngstown, Ohio

With generous funding from the Surdna Foundation, we are able to offer this event and transportation to Youngstown free of charge,

but participants must register in advance. Registration will begin Monday, October 6, 2008.

On the Agenda:

The Tech Belt Initiative – Cleveland, Youngstown and Pittsburgh

Keynote Address by:

Congressman Tim Ryan (confirmed), Youngstown, Ohio

Congressman Jason Altmire (invited)

Panel Discussion with:

Baiju R. Shah, President & CEO, BioEnterprise Corporation, Cleveland, Ohio

John W. Manzetti, President and CEO, Pittsburgh Life Sciences Greenhouse, Pittsburgh, Pa.

Rich Lunak, President and CEO, Innovation Works, Pittsburgh, Pa.

How Vital Neighborhoods and Downtowns are Key to Economic Revitalization and Business Attraction

Telling Our Stories Effectively – Interactive workshop with Dick Brooks, Action Media, Minneapolis, Minn.

Multi-neighborhood community development: a new model for delivery of services

Jo DeBolt, LaPiana Associates

Representative from Pittsburgh Partnership for Neighborhood Development (PPND)

Community organizing / inspiring people to act

Mark Seifert, Executive Director, Empowering and Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), Cleveland, Ohio

Kirk Noden, the Mahoning Valley Organizing Collaborative, Youngstown, Ohio

John Bixler, COO, Mon-Valley Initiative, Youngstown Ohio

Reports from Learning Exchange participants

Youngstown, Pittsburgh, Cleveland – over a dozen learning exchanges between these 3 cities have happened since our June gathering -

hear a quick update from some of the participants on their "take aways" from these unprecedented learning opportunities.

Buffalo Urban Laboratory

Ed Morrison over at Brewed Fresh Daily posted links to a number of interesting stories. All of them are excellent blog fodder, but the article about Buffalo is most relevant to my own crusade:

The idea that Buffalo could become a national laboratory dedicated to solving the vacant-housing crisis has its roots in Blueprint Buffalo, a two-year-old report developed by a team of experts and now touted by City Hall and local leaders.

Schilling gave new life to the proposal last month with a published article, “Buffalo as the Nation’s First Living Laboratory for Reclaiming Vacant Properties.” ...

... Supporters say the creation of a one-of-a-kind living lab would bring with it national talent and expertise, the likes of which Buffalo is not likely to have access to otherwise.

This vision for Buffalo is what I have in mind for Youngstown. Instead of studying the vacant properties problem, Youngstown would be a living laboratory for dealing with economic globalization. Youngstown is already attracting scholars from domestic and foreign universities. Of all the struggling Rust Belt cities, Youngstown strikes me as the least risk averse and potential hotbed for urban policy innovation.

As for Pittsburgh, I'm hoping my favorite city will be a living laboratory managing brain drain. The presence of Rand places enough talent in the region to make it the center of talent migration research. Also, Pittsburgh's impressive Diaspora makes for a best case scenario for the success of an urban alumni initiative that takes advantage of increasing geographic mobility, instead of fighting the flow.

At the other end of Cleveburgh, Richard Herman is the center of gravity for a living laboratory designed to figure out how to attract more immigrants. Mr. Herman has already advanced a few policy innovations garnering national attention. However, both Cleveland and Pittsburgh are much more risk averse. Getting stakeholders in either city on board won't be easy.

Rust Belt Diaspora: Charlotte

Fleeing hard times in states such as Ohio, people from the Postindustrial Heartland continue to flock to Charlotte, NC:

Midwestern Rust Belt states accounted for more newcomers in 2007 than the previous year, with Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania entering the list of top six places people moved from.

There are so many of the Burgh Diaspora residing there that Charlotte is sometimes referred to as "Pittsburgh South." Charlotte ending up as a hub for US Airways is more than symbolic. The ties between the two cities seem to get stronger each year.

Buffalo Trading Post

How might Rust Belt cities better plug into global trade? The first step is maximizing the opportunities already located in your backyard:

Over the past decade, geography, NAFTA and globalization have conspired to create a bigger opportunity for Buffalo and Western New York. Thus far, unlike the residents of Buffalo in the 1800s, we have not taken advantage of it. And like most opportunities, this one won’t last forever.

The opportunity being presented to us is to attract overseas companies that currently import goods into North America. We can combine our advantageous location with our rail infrastructure and substantial trade and logistics sector to attract these companies.

The Rust Belt could take advantage of globalization if the region first stopped spending so much energy fighting it.

Blog Release:Globalization Youngstown

The seminar is slated for today, so I'm probably too late with my alert:

A group of East High School students will have an opportunity to discuss education with a group of young leaders from Asian and Pacific Rim countries.

The 18th New Generation Seminar, sponsored by The East-West Center, will be in Youngstown on Monday and will meet with seven selected students at East as the group explores “The Politics of Globalization.”

The seminar is made up of leaders age 20-30 from Cambodia, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States. Youngstown Mayor Jay Williams is one of the 17 panelists.

Seminar participants explore the perceptions, politics and realities of the impact of globalization in the United States and how election-year politics affect popular opinion, shape globalization debates and influence national policies.

Participants will examine these issues firstand in a visit to Youngstown, a Rust-Belt manufacturing town that is emblematic of the economic, political, social and cultural challenges posed by the global economy.

The East-West Center is an education and research organization created by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to strengthen relations and understanding among the peoples and nations of Asia, the Pacific and the United States.

Each year the East-West Center invites rising young leaders from the United States and Asia Pacific to participate in The New Generation Seminar, a two-week intensive educational, dialogue and study-tour travel program that provides participants with an opportunity to strengthen their understanding of Asia Pacific — U.S. developments and challenges, build a regional network and to become leaders with a more international perspective.

The first week of the program is in Hawaii, and the second involves field travel to either the United States or Asia Pacific for exploration of the program theme.

This year, the group is traveling to Youngstown, Cleveland and Washington, D.C.

The first New Generation Seminar was in 1988, and since then a total of 262 participants from 24 Asia Pacific countries and the United States have participated in 17 seminars.

In addition to Williams, this year’s U.S. participants are William Campos, legislator, Prince George’s County Council, College Park, Md.; Joseph Earl Dorman, Oklahoma state representative and assistant Democratic floor leader; and Timothy Keith Moore, North Carolina state representative.

I wanted to post the above article for my own reference. I think Youngstown is in a unique position to require its students to learn about global civics and globalization.

Urban Frontier Hypothesis

Sean Safford wonders if New York City is heading down the same road as Youngstown, OH. Actually, Mr. Safford sees two possible Rust Belt paths for the Big Apple to take in the midst of the credit crunch gouging the financial industry:

The question is whether it will go the road of a Youngstown (i.e., struggling, still, to recast its identity in what is now a globalized, knowledge driven world) or whether it will be more like an Akron, Pittsburgh or Allentown; places that aren't exactly thriving but have adapted and are doing ok.

I've reread that post more than a few times and my reactions are all different. This past weekend, I settled on a foil, Charlotte, NC:

But there's no longer anything trifling about Charlotte. With $2 trillion in assets being managed from the glossy bank towers of Tryon Street, the city is now the nation's No. 2 financial center behind New York City. In early September, Bank of America, the behemoth of North Tryon and the largest U.S. bank, swallowed the beleaguered investment firm Merrill Lynch, while Wachovia, its competitor on South Tryon, considered a merger with Morgan Stanley. And while the rest of the country is sinking, Charlotte is soaring, with 28 construction cranes downtown. It's got the nation's least-battered metropolitan-housing market, lowest office-vacancy rates and fastest-growing airport. It hosts the NBA's Charlotte Bobcats and the NFL's Carolina Panthers. Its center-city population has doubled since 2000, and its light-rail system, just a year old, is already approaching its ridership goal for 2025. Meanwhile, ribbon-cuttings are scheduled for the NASCAR Hall of Fame, three museums, a theater and an African-American cultural center by 2010.

If whither NYC, then whither Charlotte? Charlotte is a frontier boomtown, not a mature alpha world city like London. Power brokers, such as those in Pittsburgh, won't let the global urban elite decay as Youngstown has done. In this era of globalization, that would seem to be a bad idea. Look at the geographic variance in the economic success of Chinese cities:

What explains these differences? Being near the coast is a help in China, because of access to external ideas and because coastal areas were permitted to experiment with reform first. An intriguing pattern is that governance is best in coastal cities that had very little industry when reform began in 1978. Shenzhen now has the highest per capita GDP in China. The same holds in Jiangmen, Dongguan, Suzhou--all were industrial backwaters in 1978, and responded to China's opening by creating good environments for private investment and learning from outsiders. Cities that already had industry tended to protect what they had and reform less aggressively.

Using the above model, I would expect Charlotte to better weather the storm. But I would also expect Youngstown to be in a better position "to recast its identity in what is now a globalized, knowledge driven world." On the other hand, Pittsburgh's future doesn't look as bright because there was something left to protect when big steel collapsed. The sitaution in Cleveland seems to be even worse than it is in Pittsburgh. Neither pole of Cleveburgh is well known for political reform. As a booster of Pittsburgh, I look to Youngstown.

What Black and Gold Can Do For You

In his Post-Gazette Diaspora Report, Bill Toland wonders what Pittsburgh expatriates can do for the homeland:

Even if bringing natives back can't be our ultimate goal, the Pittsburgh Diaspora no doubt can be a channel of communication between those who are here and those we hope to bring here one day. But what's the message?

Ideally, the message would be about the opportunities existing in the Pittsburgh region. But I doubt those words would have much impact coming from someone who left. Bill is trying to figure out how the Burgh Diaspora could increase domestic and international in-migration to Pittsburgh, but former Pittsburghers might be as clueless about the strong value propositions in existence as, apparently, outsiders are.

What is the value proposition of going to Harvard, or any other highly selective university? People are begging to go there with someplace else in mind. Harvard is an excellent stepping stone to bigger and better things. Perhaps of greatest use is the network of alumni who will help you get a great job.

My blasphemous idea is to reinvent Pittsburgh not into a destination for talent, but a key stop in your climb up the global ladder. Pittsburgh residents, and businesses, can take advantage of the global network of expatriates. The approach is similar to the Pittsburgh Promise. People are attracted to the City of Pittsburgh in order to provide their children with better opportunities. I'm looking forward to hearing the conspiracy theories about how the Pittsburgh Illuminati are setting the new world order.

Geography of Fear

While I was a graduate student, I took a couple seminars about the geography of economic development. The orientation was decidedly international. We were being trained to do research abroad. I was uncomfortable with what I perceive to be a type of cultural imperialism. I was interested in promoting human rights, but locals don't take kindly to outsiders telling them what they should do. The best advocates for human rights are the people who live there.

I was reminded of this while reading an article about the value of suburbanites actively helping communities in Detroit:

Through most of college, I thought working in international development would be the best way for me to make the world a more just place -- until someone asked me a difficult question: "Why are you so focused on international issues? You live a half an hour away from one of the poorest, most disenfranchised cities in America. Why aren't you working there?"

The question troubled me. When I answered it honestly, the answer was fear. It was a fear that, when traced to its roots, was born out of years of tension between the city and the suburbs -- the effects of poverty, racism, inequality and injustice.

Strange how half an hour away can be such a greater distance than half a world away. For whatever reason, troubles in a nearby inner city aren't as romantic as destitution in another country. For you social theorists out there, I see an entrenched post-colonial geography at work.

As for the fear, this is the geography of Deliverance. Mythology fills up the space of the lesser know parts of our intimate world. Dehumanizing stories about asocial behavior literally scare you from going to a place where you can't trust anyone. Folk tales are an effective way to transmit knowledge across generations and help you identify other people you can trust. If someone shares your heritage tale, then you she or he will help you.

Communities can only cover so much territory. So, the demonization of inner-city Detroit probably doesn't extend to every other country in the world. There is some anxiety about traveling abroad, but the fear is vague enough to facilitate the adventure. Thus, suburban Detroit often is more connected to regions thousands of miles away than the neighborhoods ringing downtown.

Skilled Immigrants Call The Tune

Attracting talent is only the first step. Once the geographically mobile arrive, your city or country must labor to keep them. Canada is learning this lesson the hard way:

About 40% of our economic immigrants leave within a few years because they're so disappointed in the Canadian experience. Considering Canada takes in about 140,000 economic-class immigrants yearly (more than half of our annual intake of permanent residents), that's a staggering loss of talent.

Newcomers -- especially skilled workers and wealthy business-class immigrants -- simply have much higher expectations than they did in the past. If Canada doesn't live up to their dreams, well, they just move on. And Canada loses out.

"We have a very globalized world now so people will go where the jobs are," says Naomi Alboim, an immigration expert with the School of Policy Studies at Queen's University.

Can policy keep up with economic migration? Australia continues to churn out a number of innovations in order to attract talent. The country is also a global leader for studying the flows of human capital and the battle for their skills. If the will was there, then I think Rust Belt cities could follow Australia's lead and learn from Canada's mistakes.

A few words of caution: Geographic mobility continues to increase and the sooner regions embrace out-migration as a fact of life, the better. Work with the migration patterns, not against them.

Steelers Nation Economy

According to the Economist, LinkedIn is a very busy social network in the midst of the current financial turmoil. Xing is LinkedIn's European rival, but both websites are a good place to do business:

LinkedIn is well on its way to becoming the networking site of choice for English-speaking businesspeople with global connections. But this does not mean that Xing will get squeezed out. If it plays its cards right, it could become the European alternative that takes more account of cultural differences in the way business is done.

Following the advice of a successful Pittsburgh entrepreneur, I settled on LinkedIn as the platform to network the Burgh Diaspora. Our IntoPittsburgh group on LinkedIn is on the cusp of 600 members. Recently, LinkedIn added a discussion feature, which has enjoyed active use among those folks IntoPittsburgh. People are using this network to boomerang back home and find jobs. The amount of intereaction surprised me.

However, the Steeler Nation group serves a similar function and is eqaully popular, if not more so concerning membership discussion. For the most part, these are business people who enjoy talking Steelers, but not much else. A recent study suggests that we shouldn't expect fellow fans to engage in anything beyond sharing the Steelers experience.

After reading Jim Wexell's new book about Steelers Nation, I'm less inclined to agree with the above research results. During Wexell's tour, we learn that Paul Sams (the man behind World of Warcraft and Blizzard Entertainment) was able to do business with Thomas Tull (the man behind The Dark Knight and Legendary Pictures) because both men are Steelers fans:

Blizzard employees wear an ID tage fastened to a lanyard, and Sams' "is a Steelers lanyard that I wear every day." So when Tull, another lifelong Steelers fan, walked into the room, he noticed Sams' Steelers lanyard. Tull thought he was being set up, that this was being done to gain his favor. He was a bit miffed before realizing it was no set-up.

"We ended up hijacking the first 45 minutes of the meeting talking about the Steelers," Sams said. "I've got executives all there, but it was like there was no one elsein the room except me and Thomas. All we were talking about was the Steelers.

"Honestly, we joke about it now, but really what pushed us over the edge, to feel like we could have a trust, was because we had this bond of being Steelers fans. Everything after that came very easy because there was an immediate trust."

The result of that trust is that Legendary Pictures will get to make the World of Warcraft movie. That trust made the transaction possible. That trust could drive a Steelers Nation economy.

Rust Belt Chic: Pittsburgh

Via Null Space, I see that Pittsburgh is [finally] getting younger. The article in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review is a good balance of data and anecdotes. The numbers are encouraging, though I share Chris Briem's measured enthusiasm (see his quote in the Trib article). Regardless, I notice evidence that Pittsburgh's buzz stock is on the rise:

Katrina Struloeff came to Pittsburgh from Oregon for a graduate degree and stayed for the scenery, affordable living and the social and civic opportunities that larger cities don't generally offer young adults.

"You're not just another face in the crowd," said Struloeff, 24. "You can find your niche and get involved fairly easily."

Ms. Struloeff articulates the heart of Rust Belt Chic: Opportunity in an urban frontier. Young adults can shape the city, enjoying the benefits of being a big fish in a small pond. Austin, Seattle, and Minneapolis were like this in the early 1990s. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is getting younger while most other cities are aging.

I'm still amazed that Pittsburgh has done so well with the demographic deck stack against it. I predict that the region will continue to enjoy relative economic prosperity over the next decade or so. The Burgh is back.

Brain Drain: New Jersey

Is talent mostly coming or going? New Jersey isn't sure:

Star-Ledger readers recently were confronted with seemingly contradictory assertions about the consequences of the domestic migration patterns that affect NJ. The contradiction appeared in two articles on the same front-page of the "New Jersey" section. One story reported on an alleged "brain DRAIN" that NJ is experiencing. The other story reported on a "brain GAIN."

The author of the above article goes on to describe how the misunderstood issue of brain drain is used to sell tax payers on some new program or initiative:

NJ's public higher education community uses the "brain drain" argument to advocate for policies that they insist will encourage more NJ residents to choose NJ schools. ...

... The report's touting of brain gain was a pathetic attempt to justify state government policies that have made NJ an unattractive place to live and an undesirable place for businesses to expand and locate.

I very rarely see such a nuanced understanding of talent migration reported in the popular press. The picture is complicated, which is all the more reason to approach policy formation carefully. Weekly, I read stories about states and cities throwing money at a red herring.

Blogging about this issue for over two years, I've learned how difficult it is to piece together the nature of the problem. I am confident that the brain drain hysteria plaguing Pittsburgh is unfounded, but the labor market is confusing and full of contradictions. For example, just because job creation is anemic does not mean that there isn't a talent shortage. I also have no doubt that a region or state can experience both brain drain and brain gain. Just looking at different sectors of the economy would make that perspective obvious. Unfortunately, our leadership is failing to present us with these numbers.

Sticky Detroit

GLUE provides some press for a Detroit-based initiative named Fusion. A major reason for the shrinking of Rust Belt cities is that the population is aging. Fusion's mission:

Fusion will serve as the premier organization attracting and retaining young professionals and new business. To proactively shape the future workforce of the region, as well as building up the next generation of leaders, Fusion will:

• Build relationships between future generations, businesses and the community
• Focus on attracting and retaining talent to the Detroit Region
• Develop, educate and motivate the future leaders of the region
• Empower future leaders to take responsibility in the future of the region; economic and community development
• Provide a voice on issues affecting young professionals
• Work to make Detroit the place to live, work and play

How is this initiative different from existing ones in other Rust Belt cities? Fusion should take a look at the shortcomings of the Propel Pittsburgh Commission:

The 35-member Propel Pittsburgh Commission is dedicated to meeting the concerns and needs of the City of Pittsburgh’s young adults and young professionals. Composed entirely of members aged 20-34, and chaired by the Mayor himself, the objective of the Commission is to encourage greater participation in government, identify or create programmatic or policy opportunities in issues affecting young adults and young professionals in Pittsburgh, and to inform various elected and appointed officials representing young people about issues specific to them. The Propel Pittsburgh Commission will help to give the young adults and young professionals of Pittsburgh a major role in moving the City of Pittsburgh forward.

The "function" of Propel Pittsburgh isn't expressly designed to retain and attract young professionals, but that goal is the primary reason this commission exists. Propel Pittsburgh and Fusion seem to me to be going about this in the same way. We'll see if Fusion can sustain its energy better than Propel Pittsburgh did.

I don't think anyone can change Detroit to keep people from leaving. However, I am all in on trying to attract more young adults to any Rust Belt city. Regarding the Fusion forums, they reach out to the wrong audience. These idea expeditions should be held in other Rust Belt cities.

Craddle To Grave Rust Belt

The Rust Belt is full of shrinking cities. The most common reason for the decline is out-migration. People must work and the jobs are elsewhere. There was an exodus, but that's not the issue now. The Industrial Heartland is where the most inert Americans reside. It is also home to the smallest numbers of foreign born:

However, in certain areas of the country, the number of people who hail from abroad is astonishingly low. In Pittsburgh, for example, a city as well known in the 20th century for its Polish-, English-, Italian- and Irish-born communities as for its steel mills, only 3.1% of the population is foreign born, the lowest of the 40 metro areas measured here.

Cincinnati, Ohio, St. Louis, Mo., Indianapolis, Ind., and Cleveland, Ohio, round out the top five.

Why are there so few immigrants residing in Pittsburgh? Chris Briem points his finger at the glut of talent:

Christopher Briem, a professor at University of Pittsburgh who studies the history of migration in the city, as well as its current and historic demographics, says that despite the fact that the fall of Pittsburgh steel industry happened over 20 years ago, there is still a "labor overhang." In laymen's terms, there are too many people for too few jobs.

"Any demand in the region has been internally displaced," says Briem. "The number of colleges is disproportionate to a region our size." (The estimated population of Pittsburgh's metropolitan statistical area is 2.3 million for 2007, down 15% from 2.7 million 1970.)

While Pittsburgh produces plenty of skilled graduates--some of whom have traveled from as far as India and China to attend the city's world-class colleges, including Carnegie Mellon University and University of Pittsburgh--the job market, which today primarily consists of health care and technology positions, simply isn't big enough to provide work for all qualified candidates.

I'm taking liberties with Mr. Briem's explanation. Forbes Magazine states the common thread linking all the cities is a lack of job opportunities. Obviously, that situation exists in Pittsburgh. Job growth would seem to be a strong predictor of immigration destination. But the direction of causality is still a mystery.

I think the problem (if you see it in that light) is that too few people leave cities such as Pittsburgh. I've come to this conclusion looking at out-migration rates and average wages. The people currently living in the Rust Belt aren't inclined to leave, even if the pay is much better elsewhere. This reinforces the prevailing parochial attitude and makes these shrinking cities even less attractive to newcomers. Chain in-migration has been effectively destroyed.

If Pittsburgh wants more foreign born to live there, then the region must export more of its locally cultivated talent.

Blog Release: Tech 50

From the Pittsburgh Technology Council:

The Pittsburgh Technology Council, now in its 25th year of operation, will feature 50 of southwestern Pennsylvania’s premier technology companies at its 12th annual Tech 50 awards on Thursday, October 16, 2008.

Presented in partnership with Morgan, Lewis & Bockius LLP, the awards recognize the premier companies among southwestern Pennsylvania’s technology sector, and it showcases small and large companies alike. Each year, the Tech 50 event honors those technology companies that demonstrated the strongest growth and advancement in product or sales success, financial strength, corporate citizenship, job growth and retention and innovative product or technology.

During the selection process, the Council surveyed the region for the most distinguished public and private technology-oriented companies. To be considered for the 2007 Tech 50, a company must be headquartered in the southwestern Pennsylvania counties of Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Butler, Cambria, Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Lawrence, Somerset, Westmoreland or Washington.

Brain Drain Report: Zero Sum Game

The Ohio exodus continues. Scrambling to stick a few more fingers in the talent dam, Columbus is churning out a fresh round of initiatives. Spearheading the charge is Compete Columbus. However, the telling quote comes from Urban Ventures:

"We believe that this age group is the creative energy and entrepreneurial spirit that drives the 21st-century economy," said Mike Brown, the city's Urban Ventures coordinator.

The city should try to keep or lure back young people who attended school or worked in their first jobs here, Brown said.

Plus ca change ...

In Wisconsin, the flagship university for the state located in Madison plans to reach out to graduates to reprise their college days:

A new partnership of the Wisconsin Alumni Association (WAA) and Competitive Wisconsin Inc. (CWI) will encourage University of Wisconsin-Madison graduates to return to Wisconsin to live and work. The partnership is funded in part by a $25,000 grant from the Wisconsin Department of Commerce.

The grant will support targeted marketing efforts to reverse the state's so-called "brain drain" and increase per capita income in the state by matching Wisconsin businesses, regional partnerships or early stage investment groups with UW-Madison alumni to explore employment, advancement or investment opportunities in Wisconsin.

"Brain drain," you say? Not according to one study:

Despite all the talk of a "brain drain," most Wisconsinites never move out of the state, according to a new study. The study says if natives do move out of state, they are likely to come back.

The U.S. Census Bureau says 3 out of 4 adult Wisconsin residents who were born in America were born in the state. The figure ties Iowa for the 7th highest percentage of adult natives.

This is both good and bad, according to observers. Researchers with the Brookings Institution says more folks care about their communities because they have such deep roots here. But states with fewer natives tend to have higher population growth, like Florida and Nevada.

Within the state, Appleton has the highest percentage of natives still hanging around at 78 percent. Madison has the lowest percentage of natives at 63 percent.

Appleton Mayor Tim Hanna says Wisconsin needs to do a better job of attracting outsiders. He says it will happen slowly as the state drifts away from some of its manufacturing roots.

Hanna says Wisconsin has an excellent quality of life. One reason is that it doesn't take long to get to work. The Census Bureau says the state’s average commute was 21 minutes last year, the 38th longest in the country.

To be fair, Wisconsin is primarily talking about attracting talent, not retention. But one state's gain is another state's loss. There aren't enough people of working age to raise all economic boats. Usually, the United States can fall back on large numbers of immigrants, but other countries (notably Australia) are bending over backwards to steal a greater market share. Furthermore, America is settling into a protectionsit/isolationist mood. The fight for domestic graduates will only get more fierce.

Richard Florida's Failure?

Richard Florida has his boosters and detractors. Count his adopted city of Toronto as one of the skeptics. An article in the Globe and Mail details the disparity between Florida's rankings and those of the Milken Report measuring city health:

Would you expect to find, based on Mr. Florida, that San Francisco, his own top-ranked American city in 2002, now ranks 74th in a non-ideological ranking of the 200 largest U.S. cities? And that San Diego, his own No. 2, now ranks 65th? And that Boston, his own No. 3, now ranks 118th?

What might I make of these numbers? I am reminded of the floating baseline problem facing scientists trying to improve meteorological data. I was privy to the early evaluation of wind profilers. How could we tell if the numbers we were seeing were better than what we were currently using?

Memphis came up with an interesting way to relate the two data sets:

The [Milken Report] is often used by the private sector to evaluate locations for new businesses and expansions, and on the public sector side, officials use the rankings to identify strategies that are needed for economic development. The rankings were comprised of jobs growth, wage and salary growth, short-term job growth, relative high tech GDP growth, high-tech GDP location quotient, and number of high-tech GDP LQ>1.

Memphis did not finish in the top 100 in even a single category, and in the number of high-tech GDP, Memphis was #181, which seems to be the highest hurdle that we need to clear.

It shouldn’t have been this way. Memphis was the first city to apply the research of Richard Florida (before he’d even published his now-famous book on the creative class) in an effort to develop a city that attracts and retains creative workers. Then, Memphis Manifesto Summit (now printed in Dr. Florida’s book) convened 135 “creatives” in our city to write their manifesto for cities seeking them as citizens and workers. Finally, the first research about 25-34 year-olds and recommendations for cities seeking them began here (in collaboration with Portland economist Joe Cortright).

The suggestion seems to be that if Memphis followed the advice of Richard Florida, then Memphis should rise in the Milken rankings. Dr. Florida would be the best person to answer this charge. Given my own understanding of Florida's work, I'd expect the cities scoring well in the Creative Class indices to attract more domestic migrants, particularly the young and well-educated adults. Whether or not that should translate into a better score in the Milken index, I'll leave that for others to judge.

Are the Milken numbers a fair measure of Richard Florida's plan for Memphis?