tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post2347221678404176479..comments2023-10-27T03:16:03.213-04:00Comments on Burgh Diaspora: Cheap Energy GeographyJim Russellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-55230370847764195552009-10-13T21:08:19.943-04:002009-10-13T21:08:19.943-04:00Ah, you cornucopian economists. A couple of reacti...Ah, you cornucopian economists. A couple of reactions from someone who obsesses over this topic on a daily basis:<br /><br />The jury's still out on just how 'cheap' the new gas sources are. It's easy to declare energy shortages over when we're in a deflationary demand trough. I honestly don't see people calling this stuff 'cheap' if we return to sustained 2007-level global growth.<br /><br />Then there's the fact that this is still a sequestered hydrocarbon that we intend to release into the biosphere. Bye bye Maldives.<br /><br />There's also the fact that none of these alternatives give us something matching Diesel's ability to power our resource extraction industries (biodiesel gums up at low temps and is not nearly as efficient per gallon). None of these alternatives are an answer for commercial or military aviation.<br /><br />Finally, the EROEI on every single alternative actively entering the market (including all these 'cheap' new gas sources, which at proposed prices would have been laughably expensive a mere decade ago) is drastically lower than even the non-conventional oils coming out of Canada and Venezuela.<br /><br />Even if we manage the minor miracle of cobbling together a distribution network and the consumer technology to use these as a replacement for our current infrastructure before conventional oil demand exceeds supply, we will still have to learn to work harder than we used to for every BTU we need. Demand edged over supply for just a few days in April 2008, causing widespread global disruptions for months. When the economy - especially China, India and Russia - get steaming back to 2007 levels again, there is likely to be a much longer period of supply-demand inversion.<br /><br />I'm still putting my bets on resource Armageddon ahead of technological messiah for the coming decade...Mark Arsenalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17577014392699564592noreply@blogger.com