tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post6008462003675835704..comments2023-10-27T03:16:03.213-04:00Comments on Burgh Diaspora: Big Fish Small Pond Talent MigrationJim Russellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-41834881931459536232013-02-11T17:17:13.822-05:002013-02-11T17:17:13.822-05:00Pittsburgh is getting younger while a community in...Pittsburgh is getting younger while a community in Florida is rapidly aging because of the influx of retirees. The usual analysis is that the city in Florida is doing better than Pittsburgh because its population is growing. Pittsburgh's isn't.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's workforce is growing and getting smarter. The main narrative? Shrinking city. Just looking at population change is poor analysis.Jim Russellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-82486540543429198442013-02-11T16:51:58.209-05:002013-02-11T16:51:58.209-05:00We'll have to agree to disagree that absolute ...We'll have to agree to disagree that absolute population growth compared to absolute population decline tells a different story.<br /><br />I'm struggling to understand what you mean by when you say that a community with population growth via in-migration that is also aging is in demographic decline.<br /><br />I'm not aware of anywhere in the Western world that isn't getting older because of long-term trends in the developed world. <br /><br />While I grant you that baseline demographics in different cities will definitely show varying rates of aging, I think the megatrends towards smaller family sizes and delayed childbirth in the West are widespread enough that net in-migration or out-migration (and the influence of who is doing the migrating)is going to be important.<br /><br />I read your Miami post and it is well stated; I would much rather have NYC's brain drain instead of Miami's. <br /><br />I still think the size of the "big fish/small pond" seeker market should be a subject of high interest to cities/metros with relatively stable population bases.CityBeautiful21http://www.citybeautiful21.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-79475141087356063352013-02-01T16:07:34.226-05:002013-02-01T16:07:34.226-05:00CityBeautiful21,
Qualifying demographic decline o...CityBeautiful21,<br /><br />Qualifying demographic decline only in terms of population change is absurd. A metro that is growing population thanks to inmigration <i>and</i> aging rapidly is experiencing demographic decline. Demographic analysis is much more nuanced than you allow. Regardless, I'm speaking specifically to domestic net migration. Your comments about population change are a straw man.<br /><br />That said, I take your point about NYC's thick labor market. I argue that the negative net migration is a sign of health. See this post about assessing Miami's brain drain:<br /><br />http://burghdiaspora.blogspot.com/2012/03/assessing-brain-drain-miami.html<br />Jim Russellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-79609241091823520432013-02-01T15:35:40.634-05:002013-02-01T15:35:40.634-05:00No, I'm saying that describing New York City a...No, I'm saying that describing New York City as "dying" or in "demographic decline" is absurd given conditions on the ground in NYC, and that thick labor markets are not about to crumble under the weight of their "ceilings," when instead their high levels of competition naturally leave some people unhired. This condition is bad for the unhired individuals but good for the hired individuals, cities and their economies.<br /><br />Given the infinite world of human preference, there will be individuals who choose the opportunities of Detroit over those of NYC. There are also those who prefer arena league football to the NFL.<br /><br />Mr Xiao's story is interesting and in a city as troubled as Detroit, the question of how well and often his choices could be facilitated and replicated for the good of the city is valid.<br /><br />However, what might be good for Mr. Xiao's personal preferences and career, may he be successful in all he does- is not necessarily a harbinger of some great opportunity for the city.<br /><br />Quantitatively- how big is the group of people who are looking to be, as you put it- "big fish in small ponds?" And how big is that group compared to those aspiring as little fish to be bigger fish in bigger ponds?CityBeautiful21noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-23574984678434649942013-02-01T11:52:43.332-05:002013-02-01T11:52:43.332-05:00CityBeautiful21,
My comment you quote is about ne...CityBeautiful21,<br /><br />My comment you quote is about net migration, not population change. You are confusing the two.Jim Russellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13078184665418828961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29127973.post-45742893535887163432013-02-01T11:29:11.554-05:002013-02-01T11:29:11.554-05:00"Every year, thousands more leave than arrive..."Every year, thousands more leave than arrive. New York is dying. People vote with their feet."<br /><br />You have some interesting things to say but this portion of your narrative is just patently false.<br /><br />New York City has fixed borders and has added the population of roughly 2 and 3/4 Pittsburghs since 1990.<br /><br />Within the combined 5 boroughs, NYC has never had a larger population than it does today. And yes, they are gaining people without degrees. And that is partially because there is a baby boom going on in Manhattan, and those children all arrive uncredentialed.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_york_city#Demographics<br /><br />The big fish/small pond talent migration hypothesis is interesting, and I think valid.<br /><br />Instead of misrepresenting NYC and its differential opportunities from the Rust Belt, your time pursuing this issue would be better spent trying to figure out how *LARGE* in raw numbers the big fish/small pond talent move is on an annual basis compared to small-or-big-fish/big pond talent migration.<br /><br />If that movement is in fact significant in terms of numbers, that's data that economic developers can work with and actually craft strategies around. Good luck.CityBeautiful21noreply@blogger.com