Jeremy Aguero, principal analyst for the consulting firm Applied Analysis, said he expects that outbound migration will continue to overshadow incoming migration. Fewer driver’s licenses have been surrendered at the DMV compared with past years, meaning fewer people have been moving here and turning in their old licenses, he said.In July, 4,683 licenses were surrendered, down 3.3 percent from 4,845 in July 2009. The figure has been dropping since 2004, when 8,889 licenses were surrendered in July, the highest on record, Aguero said.There has also been an increase in one-way bus tickets out of Las Vegas, he said. ...... David Stevens, a 35-year-old Henderson resident, rented a 26-foot U-Haul truck this week to take his father’s furniture to California. He said his parent had gone to San Francisco because of medical issues but planned to return to Las Vegas to be with his grandchildren. Then his Las Vegas property lost half its value.“He was going to move back out here, but the economy tanked and the house market crashed,” Stevens said.So Stevens spent the day filling up the truck with bedding, sofas, tables and other furniture to make the 12-hour drive.He added that many of his friends have left town for Arkansas, Utah and other states because they’ve lost jobs.
As I would expect, the story of outmigration is much more complicated. I'd guess the decline of inmigration is more dramatic than the bump in people leaving town. As the article indicates, a lot of people are stuck. But the situation is looking increasingly desperate. I figure the worst of the outmigration is yet to come.