Friday, February 10, 2012

Rust Belt Reset Re-Elects Obama

Obama will win the upcoming election regardless of whom the Republicans trot out to challenge him. The economy is a strong predictor of voter behavior. The New York Times with the analysis:

Ryan Avent has an eye-opening post on The Economist’s Free Exchange blog, noting that the economy is improving more rapidly in swing states than in the rest of the country.

There's a migration tale buried in the political prognostication. Michigan is one of those swing states hard hit by the recession, but recovering quickly. I blogged about a demographic report yesterday to make a point about the misconceptions about Michigan outmigration. More from state demographer Ken Darga:

"Michigan usually leads the nation out of a recession," says Darga, "and that is what is happening again. This is what normally happens during a recession."

Darga points to new numbers released recently by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget. Those stats show over the past 3 years, fewer people appear to be leaving Michigan for other states ... especially young adults. Darga says that could be because the economy is improving and more jobs are being added in the state. He says part of that is due to interest rates. As rates go down more people buy cars and more jobs are created in Michigan to deal with the demand.

Emphasis added. Michigan's charge out of the recession is already showing up in the migration data. That's bad news for the GOP. The downturn did spark an exodus from Michigan. That's over now, along with the Republican chances of reclaiming the White House.

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