Monday, November 03, 2014

Does Population Change Drive Demand for Housing?

A better way to measure housing demand at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and gentrification.

Subject Article: "Affordable housing and the legit big-city whinge."

Other Links: 1. Brian Kelsey, principle and founder of Civic Analytics.
2. "78704 population didn't change much 2000-2012 but % w/ bachelor's degree or higher increased 37% to 50%. #atxaffordability"
3. "Congratulations, Your City Is Dying!"
4. "Understanding Population Change and Density in St. Louis (UIC & nextSTL @ PXSTL)."
5. "Democalypse 2014 - South by South Mess: Mex Tex."
6. "The Other Side of the Growing Disconnect Between Where You Live and Work."

Postscript: "No Need to Fear a Fall in Population":

But the rate of population does not affect the growth rate of per capita GDP. Here’s a scatter diagram (Graph A) for the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) member countries over the last forty years showing the average growth rate of GDP per person and the average growth rate of population.  This reveals that and there’s absolutely no correlation between the two. For example, in Mexico, where the average annual growth rate of population was whopping 2%, the annual growth rate for the GDP per capita was only 2%. There is even a country with a negative population growth rate having a growth rate of per-capita GDP at more than 5%.

Population growth does not equal economic growth. Demographic decline does not equal economic decline. Population change does not take the temperature of a regional economy or real estate market.

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