Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Fleeing New York and San Francisco for ‘Cleveland’

Once again tackling housing supply versus demand at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and gentrification.

Subject Article: "Affordable Housing Draws Middle Class to Inland Cities."

Other Links: 1. "Exotic Romancing at Tennessee Williams Fest."
2. "Urban Geopolitics: Why Chicago Is Dying."
3. "The Way the Modern World Works: World Hegemony to World Impasse."
4. "And the Global City shatters into a million pieces. 'Affordable Housing Draws Middle Class to Inland Cities'"
5. "When Social Scientists Fail Demography."
6. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
7. "Expat Cuts Hit Hong Kong Luxury Rentals: Market Struggles as Multinationals Trim Packages for Relocated Employees."

Postscript: More from Other Link #7:

The normal summertime surge in demand for high-end apartments in Hong Kong's top neighborhoods was weak again this year as companies changed the way they pay for housing for their expatriate employees and the finance sector continued to struggle.

A shift away from banking and toward retail and other sectors, among companies relocating staff, has pushed down demand. Hong Kong's efforts to cool its housing sector have weighed on the market as well.

Expatriate families relocating to Hong Kong, the main prospective tenants for high-end leases above 80,000 Hong Kong dollars (US$10,300) a month, usually move in the summer months before the school year begins. The start of the third quarter is the "traditional busy time" in the high-end leasing market, according to Edina Wong, senior director of residential leasing at Savills, a real-estate consultancy company. This year, "there's been a minor bump, but not as big as previous years'."

It hasn't been nearly enough to make up for the longer trend: a decline in luxury rental demand by 30% to 40% over the past two years, according to Ms. Wong. "It's a huge drop," she said. "The higher the rental, the quieter it is."

The above quoted passage accomplishes two things. First, putting aside the tax intended to cool the real estate market, the demand slack has a dramatic impact on prices. Second, the overall real estate market is segmented, providing a more nuanced picture of housing affordability in Hong Kong. In my next post, I tackle the disaggregation of housing markets.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

LeBron James Migration: Big Chef Seeking Small Pond

The return of LeBron James to his hometown doesn't make him a pioneer at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Return migration and economic development.

Subject Article: "Chefs Move Beyond New York."

Other Links: 1. "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
2. "Irrational Choice Theory: The LeBron James Migration From Miami to Cleveland."
3. "Who says Cleveland needs saving?"
4. "Fleeing Los Angeles for Harrisburg."
5. "Ironic Migration: Invisible Inflows."
6. "Think people, not place in rural migration."
7. "Dispatches from the Field: Return Migration in Mexico."

Postscript: LeBron James coming home to Northeast Ohio might catalyze more return migration. If others start looking into return migration, I think they will find a well-established trend that defines the current economic epoch. The psychogeographic pivot in Buffalo:

Signs of a new Buffalo became obvious in no time: cranes all around town and local enthusiasm beyond typical civic pride. From its industrial heyday in the early 1900s, Buffalo sank to downtrodden at best. Its population is about half what it was in the 1950s. But today, residents are excited about the makeover underway, and everyone seems to know college graduates moving back to the city, or people coming here for jobs.

Emphasis added. Residents of Rust Belt cities are finally noticing return migrants.

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Geographic Scale and Talent Migration: Washington, D.C.’s New Silver Line

Amenities don't drive migrants across the country at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: You go where you know, knowledge and migration.

Subject Article: "The Silver Line is a new weapon in the local war for talent."

Other Links: 1. "Wisconsin's brain drain and transportation priorities."
2. "Not About LeBron James: Economic Restructuring in Cleveland."

Postscript: I'm working through some ideas about the relationship between geographic scale, labor markets, and migration. My goal is to figure out how to leverage migration patterns for economic development in Northeast Ohio. A numbers of subsequent posts will serve as pieces to the overall puzzle that I will eventually put together in a comprehensive post.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Confusing Population Change With Migration

Population growth and net outmigration happening in the same metro, at the same time at Pacific Standard magazine. 

Theme: Ironic demography.

Subject Article: "Do Millennials Prefer Houston and San Antonio to Dallas and Austin?"

 Other Links: 1. "10 Surprisingly Hot Markets for Millennials."
2. "How Many People Left Pittsburgh During the 1980s?"
3. "As Deaths Outpace Births, Cities Adjust."

Postscript: As national (and international) demographics have changed, perceptions have failed to keep pace. The outdated view holds that population change is primarily a function of domestic migration. More and more places around the world post birth rates unable to replace those who die. As women become more educated, families get smaller. Birth rates of immigrants glossed over the transformation in the United States. But even foreign born populations are beginning to converge demographically. Journalists need to get with the times.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Battle of the Public Intellectuals: Edward Glaeser vs. Richard Florida

The rent is too damn high in free-building Houston at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic demographics.

Subject Article: "Houston, New York Has a Problem: The southern city welcomes the middle class; heavily regulated and expensive Gotham drives it away."

Other Links: 1. "Cost of Living Is Really All About Housing: Places where the rent really is too damn high."
2. "Map: Cost of Rent."
3. "Not So Much ‘New York Poor’ as ‘Pittsburgh Rich.’"

Postscript: "California Screaming: The tech industry made the Bay Area rich. Why do so many residents hate it?":

Conway, an unofficial adviser, and a generous donor, to San Francisco’s mayor, Edwin M. Lee, agrees that something is going wrong in the city’s socioeconomics. But the solution, he thinks, is to bring more of Silicon Valley north. “In ten years, I would hope that eighty-five per cent of tech workers who live in San Francisco work in San Francisco,” he said. “For every tech job, there’s four support jobs, and we need to make sure those people live inside the city limits as well.”

Tech’s shift to the city is already under way. Last August, Yahoo caused a stir when it moved into the San Francisco Chronicle building; Square, the credit-card-processing company founded by Jack Dorsey, was already there, and Twitter’s offices are nearby. Conway supports the Mayor’s new “seven-point housing plan,” which calls for thirty thousand low-, moderate-, and middle-income homes. The developments are planned largely for former industrial sites like Candlestick and Bayview-Hunters Points—a wharf neighborhood that has had limited appeal; up to half of the city’s homicides take place there, and it adjoins a shipyard that’s still being cleansed of toxic and radioactive waste. In Conway’s dream, lower- and middle-income families (defined as four-person households earning $145,650 or less) will have a secure place in such housing, while market-rate homes will continue to attract job-creating tech workers.

In some ways, this is a puzzling solution to the real-estate crisis. Wouldn’t moving more tech companies into the city drive prices even higher? Conway thought that maybe techies could be induced to put down payments on the homes of their poorer employees. “It’s not building anything, but it’s taking qualified people who can afford housing but not the down payment,” he said. “And that’s probably the least costly.” The effort would have to be conducted in an ad-hoc way in order to get it done—a good-hearted C.E.O. here and there stepping up and launching a project.

Yet there’s a broader difficulty in solving San Francisco’s problems through tech growth: the industry, which derives its competitive edge from efficiency, appears to be better at capital accumulation than at job creation. This is one reason, some economists think, that unemployment has remained more or less flat since 2000, even as productivity has continued to increase. An old-line company like Citigroup has some two hundred and fifty thousand employees; Facebook, which is worth more, employs about six thousand, and most tech startups are far smaller. (When WhatsApp was acquired by Facebook, for nineteen billion dollars, it had fewer than a hundred employees.) Tech has brought good jobs to San Francisco, but almost any other industry, charged with similar growth, would have brought many more.

This has been no secret to those in power. Nine years ago, Ted Egan, who is now San Francisco’s chief economist, was hired by the Mayor’s Office to plot a long-term economic path for the city. He recommended four measures that would mitigate rising inequality. The city should try to diversify its tech growth away from Internet firms to include industries like biotech, which supplies large numbers of both specialist and nonspecialist jobs. It should work on attracting big companies, which offer residents a range of jobs, rather than only small startups, which rest on the shoulders of a few founders. It should promote tourism more creatively, and focus more intensely on sustaining its blue-collar industries. Egan submitted his report. City Hall appeared to love it. Then, he says, it was filed away.

There are problems on both sides of the housing market, supply and demand. But demand is the much bigger issue. More from the above article:

“If you’re in a region that is adding jobs, you need parts of that region to be pro-growth to allow the housing supply to increase commensurate with the jobs,” Gabriel Metcalf, the executive director of SPUR, a pro-growth urban-policy think tank, told me. Building advocates like Yarne and Metcalf, who are friends, blame San Francisco’s public process for slowing down construction and driving up housing prices. John Rahaim, the Planning Department’s director, encourages such growth but shares the widespread opinion that it would take a huge amount of building—some people say around a hundred thousand new units, over a period of years—to shift San Francisco’s supply-demand curve.

Adding homes at the high end of the market could also entice more rich suburbanites into town. Supply-side urbanists like Metcalf and Yarne solve the problem by zooming out on the map. It’s O.K. if San Francisco vacuums in the most affluent elements in the region, they say, provided that greater San Francisco doesn’t remain a suburban hinterland. Yarne is fond of pointing out that the BART commute from downtown Oakland to downtown San Francisco is a lot faster than most streetcar commutes within San Francisco. Let’s have more of that, he says, and turn the Bay Area as a whole into a clean, efficient metropolis.

Ironically, "supply-side urbanists" fail to see the big picture.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Irrational Choice Theory: The LeBron James Migration From Miami to Cleveland

LeBron James migration as economic development at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Return migration.

Subject Article: "God Loves Cleveland: Why LeBron James — unparalleled NBA genius, heir to Michael (and Larry and Magic) — went home."

Other Links: 1. "Miami Is Dying."
2. "Quality of Place and Migration."
3. "In Cleveland, Income Growth Without Population Growth."
4. "Unhappy Cities."
5. "LeBron: I'm coming back to Cleveland."
6. "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
7. "That New York City Magic."
8. "Let the People Go: The Problem With Strict Migration Limits."
9. "LeBron's Location Decision."
10. "Kool-Aid Man (Family Guy)."

Postscript: A few months back, I read about a critique of the push-pull model for migration theory. At first, it was unsettling. Push-pull is the crux of rational choice. One place is better (pull) than another (push). Long ago, I decided the push factor was nonsense. Migration is aspirational, all pull. However, push-pull assumes that places develop and then people. I do believe, I think that migration is economic development. Still, I struggled to reconcile that with the critique of push-pull. Reconciliation came in the form of realizing that migration had a bad image. Relocation is a negative outcome, not a positive one. If someone moves, then something must be wrong. In both LeBron James migrations, everything was right. What was wrong was (is) how we perceive his journey.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Not About LeBron James: Economic Restructuring in Cleveland

LeBron James moved back to Northeast Ohio because that's where the action is at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Legacy Economy and return migration.

Subject Article: "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."

Other Links: 1. "The Center for Population Dynamics: Reports and Blogs."
2. "The LeBron James Story Has Always Been A Tale Of Two Cities."
3. "Is LeBron James Now The Most Powerful Person In Cleveland? No -- This Guy Is."
4. "Eds And Meds Economic Geography."
5. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
6. "This guy is nuts (end of story) ..."
7. "Jane Jacobs: Why Urban Planning’s Legendary Heroine is Famous for a Reason."
8. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
9. "Cleveland's healthcare jobs power shifting from hospitals to research labs."
10. "Captive Labor Markets and Migration."

Postscript: In Northeast Ohio:

The study found that the medical sector has grown by 20 percent since the turn of the century, adding 177,000 jobs and offsetting losses in other industries. Momentum stalled during the recession but Moody's Economy.com projects the industry will add another 6,000 to 8,000 jobs over the next few years, Team NEO reports.

I don't know how much of medical sector growth is of the diverging tradable sort. But those kind of jobs drive migration and are associated with brain gain (i.e. more people with college degrees moving into the region than leaving). Furthermore, tradable Innovation Economy jobs are converging. Cleveland didn't benefit much from "The New Geography of Jobs." But that world is getting less spiky by the day. Your choice: Cleveland rich, or San Francisco poor?"

Friday, July 11, 2014

Affordable Housing: Geography of Supply and Demand

The geographic scale of supply and demand matters at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and gentrification.

Subject Article: "Bakken Oil Boom Brings Growing Pains to Small Montana Town: An influx of workers leaves housing scarce—and the jail full."

Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
2. "Why Foreign Money is Irrelevant to Increasing Density."
3. "Everyone's Moving to Seattle, and It's Stressing Out Sushi Lovers."

Postscript: A bit of demography and geography for Frederick County, Maryland:

County planning director Jim Gugel said the area’s relatively low cost of living has historically attracted people.

“One thing that drives people to move to Frederick County and the outer (Washington) suburbs is the cost of housing,” he said.

It was business opportunities that brought Eagar to Frederick. He is a manager at XeoHealth, a health care technology company that aims to simplify claims. The business set up its U.S. headquarters in Frederick, he said, because of its strategic location near the I-270 technology corridor and airports.

I think this is a good example of how the geography of supply scales regionally. I live in this area and I can see the rapid (and ironic) shift of economic geography away from the urban core. Along those lines, read about how the future of urban density is in the suburbs.

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

The Geopolitics of Gentrification

Making geopolitical connections to gentrification in the United States at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and gentrification.

Subject Article: "Chinese Lead Way as Foreigners Step Up Purchases of U.S. Homes."

Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."

Postscript: I'm interested to know if the EB-5 investment visa helped pave the way for non-visa related real estate investment. Betting geographer David Ley could tell me, "Transnational Networks of Business Immigrants Between East Asia and British Columbia."

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Demographic Tale of the Tape: Vox vs. FiveThirtyEight

Matthew Yglesias fails demography at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic demographics.

Subject Article: "Map: The 25 cities nobody wants to live in."

Other Links: 1. "Population Shifts Had Nothing to Do With Cantor’s Defeat."
2. "Vox is our next."
3. "Fastest-Shrinking U.S. Cities: Detroit and other Michigan cities continue to lose population."

Postscript: A journalist screwing up demographic analysis is nothing new. But I have to wonder if Yglesias' poor grasp of demography influences his understanding of the relationship between zoning regimes and housing affordability. Greater density makes a lot of sense with such a superficial look at population change.

Monday, July 07, 2014

Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable

The real estate market isn't local anymore at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and gentrification.

Subject Article: "Why Vancouver housing is unaffordable and what to do about it."

Other Links: 1. "Gentrification Is in the Eye of the Beholder."
2. "Stash Pad."
3. "Gentrification of the City."
4. "New Globalism, New Urbanism: Gentrification as Global Urban Strategy."
5. "S.F. falls behind planning for growth."
6. "Apartment Rents Rise as Incomes Stagnate."
7. "More NYC—a Progressive Campaign for Upzoning New York."
8. "The quiet, massive rezoning of New York."
9. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
10. "Pity the bohemians and their high-rent woes."

Postscript: Save for the last two paragraphs of the article by Doug Saunders ("Pity the bohemians and their high-rent woes."), I thought I was reading a piece that would support David Ley's model of the Vancouver housing market. Instead, Saunders shoehorns in the conventional wisdom about greater density. As a geographer, the scale mismatch is obvious. But I'll take a few steps back. Should we expect local planning tools to deal effectively with international flows transforming the urban landscape? Does scale matter? Anyone familiar with urban planning theorists who discuss dealing with globalization?

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts

Debunking the Jane "Jacobs spillovers" at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Geography of innovation.

Subject Article: "What Can a 'Science of Cities' Offer Planners?"

Other Links: 1. "The Case For Investing In California Businesses."
2. "Chile teaches the world a lesson about innovation."
3. "Keeping the Focus on People, Not Places, With Jim Russell."
4. "Job Hopping: Driver of Regional Tech Growth?
5. "Job Hopping, Information Technology Spillovers, and Productivity Growth."

Postscript: Intrinsically, cities aren't cauldrons of innovation. Cities draw people from a diverse set of places. Cities also provide more inter-firm labor mobility opportunities. Most migration covers a short distance. You go where you know. Thus the observation of a positive correlation between urban density and innovation/productivity. Right connection, wrong explanation.

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Friday, June 20, 2014

Density Boondoggles: Innovation Districts

Zero-gravity innovation at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Geography of innovation.

Subject Article: "Does Innovation Always Lead to Gentrification?"

Other Links: 1. "Confronting Suburban Poverty in America."
2. "Anchor Institutions and Economic Development: From Community Benefit to Shared Value."
3. "The Rise of Innovation Districts: A New Geography of Innovation in America."
4. "Knowhow and the Wealth of Nations: Overcoming the Productivity Curse."
5. "Modeling Migration."
6. "Is Israel Losing Its ‘Startup Nation’ Title?"
7. "Pittsburgh officials put out welcome sign for immigrants."

Postscript: The density fetish is wrapped in Michael Porter's theory about industry clusters. Vivek Wadhwa debunking the cluster myth:

Legions of consultants have been advising regions to build science parks next to research universities and to offer financial incentives to selected industries to locate there, touting Harvard professor Michael Porter’s cluster theory. Porter had observed that geographic concentrations of interconnected companies, specialized suppliers, and service providers gave certain industries a productivity and cost advantage. His followers postulated that by bringing these ingredients together into a “cluster,” regions could artificially foment innovation.

They couldn’t. The formula doesn’t work. The top-down industry cluster is a modern-day snake oil.  Chile proved that it is people, not industry, who power innovation.

People develop, not places.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Demographics: 1; Gentrification Hysteria: 0

Xenophobic anti-gentrification hysteria at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Demographics and bad journalism.

Subject Article: "When Brooklyn juries gentrify, defendants lose."

Other Links: 1. Urban Dictionary entry for "groovy uvy".
2. ".@zephoria Not even if you count Hispanic people is Brooklyn 50% white. @nypost should correct that article."
3. "Population of Kings County, New York: Census 2000 and 2010 Interactive Map, Demographics, Statistics, Graphs, Quick Facts."

Postscript: Xenophobia is deeply ingrained in our society. It's a bias that informs poor analysis. Nate Silver takes down the New York Times:

I warned you to be suspicious of novel theories about the defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his Republican primary last week. It probably had something to do with Cantor’s identification with the Republican establishment at a time when it is deeply unpopular. But to the extent that Cantor’s defeat was like an earthquake, that means we can’t pin down its causes all that precisely. We might even think of it as having been somewhat random. Why did Cantor’s district give way when so many others held? (Only 1 to 2 percent of Republicans running for re-election to the House of Representatives have been denied their nomination since 2010.)

But here’s one such theory, as described by a New York Times article published Sunday: Perhaps Cantor’s defeat — and the near-defeat of Republican Sen. Thad Cochran in Mississippi — has something to do with migration patterns. If more people are moving into areas where they are less familiar with the incumbent, perhaps the incumbency advantage has waned. ...

... But it’s less clear that this has much to do with migration patterns, or at least not in the way that The New York Times proposes. More of the evidence contradicts rather than supports its hypothesis, in fact.

The theory doesn’t align well with the results in Virginia. If migration to Virginia was a major contributor to Cantor’s defeat, you’d expect Cantor to have done worse in counties where there were more transplants.

Instead — as can be seen in the graphic below — there was essentially no relationship between the percentage of the population that was born outside Virginia (as based on American Community Survey estimates) and the share of the vote that Cantor received in a county.

The newspaper jumped to the newcomer conclusion because that's the stock stereotype at hand. Silver has carved out a career using social science techniques to dispel the mythologies of conventional wisdom. Outsiders change things, except when they don't.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Quality of Place and Migration

At Pacific Standard magazine, why don't we rank places in terms out-migration rates?

Theme: Brain drain and real estate development.

Subject Article: "Young adult survey: LI needs more housing options, jobs to keep us here."

Other Links: 1. "Symposium on Small Towns, Understanding Rural Migration: Myths, Trends, and Opportunities Exposed."
2. "Not So Much ‘New York Poor’ as ‘Pittsburgh Rich’."
3. "A geographer rolls his eyes at the Horizon District development pitch."
4. "Long Island’s Young People: Why They Will Continue to Leave Long Island."
5. "Symposium on Small Towns challenges narrative of rural decline."

Postscript: Headline, "Manchester is 'ugly, unfriendly and lacking vibrancy', hard-hitting tourism poll finds":

Mancunians may think their city is the best place on the planet... but many overseas visitors are not so sure, a summit on improving the city has heard.

People in other countries view Manchester as ‘ugly’, ‘unfriendly’ and ‘lacking vibrancy’, according to a hard-hitting poll into the city’s tourism appeal.

But the good news, at least, is that these stereotypes are shattered when travelers actually visit the city.

That's right. When outsiders visit the city, the perception changes from negative to positive. Whereas, a place might have a positive image undermined only by residing there. Geographic stereotypes significantly impact migration patterns. Real estate development projects do not.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Housing Affordability and the New Geography of Jobs

Housing affordability is about income, not supply constraints, at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Economic divergence of innovation.

Subject Article: "Bill Witte on Housing Affordability: A Supply and Demand Problem."

Other Links: 1. "Race, Jobs, and Gentrification."
2. "The Planning Report: Insider's Guide to Planning & Infrastructure."
3. "The Case For Investing In California Businesses."

Postscript: From Toronto Life, "Stuck in Condoland":

She got the unit pre-construction for less than $300,000, which was a steal, because really she’d purchased much more than space: she bought the dream Toronto and its developers have been selling throughout this decade-long boom. She was single in the city, blonde and svelte, with a well-paying career-track job and, soon, a condo on the edge of clubland. Toronto would be at her feet and at her service. ...

... Shannon and Paul bought into the New Toronto brand: the vertical city of luxury living, cultural experience, Momofuku food and trendy boutiques. That’s how the lifestyle is marketed by politicians and developers alike, and it’s incredibly appealing to young adults in all their forms: staid professionals, graduating millennials, hipsters. ...

... Condos are the only affordable option when the average detached Toronto home costs $965,670. The reason prices have shot so high is because no one is building new detached or semi-detached homes for the city’s emerging glut of new families. For developers, the payoff of condo construction far outstrips that of detached housing. The lack of supply explains why every empty nester’s house—even a dilapidated gut-job reno that reeks of cat pee—sparks a bidding war when it goes to market. ...

... Condo developers generally boost their profits by selling smaller units and more of them. There’s also a tax incentive: provincial and municipal land-transfer tax rates are higher for units valued at more than $400,000, so that price has become a kind of magic number for developers and buyers alike: $399,900 is a de facto maximum price point, discouraging the construction of larger units that would cost more. The dependency on pre-construction sales also skews the market. Developers minimize their risk by selling as many units as they can before they ever put a shovel in the ground—70 to 80 per cent of units must be sold before a lender will provide construction financing. Smaller units sell fast on launch weekend to eager young first-timers. But buyers of larger condos generally prefer to see the unit before they buy it, which means developers must carry the cost and the risk of those unsold units until construction is complete, sometimes years later.

Greater density informs greater dislocation, income inequality, and segregation. It's not a solution for gentrification. It is one of the causes of gentrification.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Race, Jobs, and Gentrification

Houston, we have a gentrification problem at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Geog 101.

Subject Article: "Fighting Gentrification With Money In Houston."

Other Links: 1. "Bill Witte on Housing Affordability: A Supply and Demand Problem."

Postscript: Why are Worcester's housing prices stuck?

What accounts for Worcester's lower incomes and weak real estate prices? A look at Worcester's largest employers may shed some light on the question. These include big insurance companies such as Hanover, Commerce, Mapfre USA; abrasives and materials — as in Saint Gobain; St. Vincent Hospital and UMass Memorial Health Care; colleges — like Holy Cross, WPI, and Worcester State; and some pharmaceuticals researchers.

The common thread among all these employers is relatively slow growth when compared to the high technology employers located further east. Moreover, many of these employers hire many workers that do manufacturing and service jobs with relatively low pay and a smaller number of higher paid jobs — including executives, doctors, scientific researchers, and professors. ...

... Worcester economic leaders I've interviewed like to tout its low real estate prices as a draw to potential employers. But those low prices do not mean that real estate in the city is a good investment unless there is a catalyst for faster economic growth that would boost demand — and hence prices.

Or, Worcester could reduce the supply of housing, and hence raise prices. But the central issue for housing affordability is demand, not supply. Which is why no-zoning Houston has a gentrification problem.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Not So Much ‘New York Poor’ as ‘Pittsburgh Rich’

Popping the cool city migration bubble at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic migration.

Subject Article: "Career ambitions, higher cost of living erode Austin’s ‘Slacker’ vibe."

Other Links: 1. "'Pittsburgh Rich' or New York poor?"
2. "A Message to the City Builders of Tomorrow."
3. "Young people are NOT leaving Pittsburgh: Statistics in hand, Chris Briem is happy to explode the myth of a continuing exodus."
4. "The Rise of the Creative Class: Why cities without gays and rock bands are losing the economic development race."
5. "Young And In Debt In New York City."
6. "Watch out Portland, Pittsburgh's lookin' hip: Is it really possible we are actually, authentically cool?"
7. "The young people myth: Pittsburgh is attracting talented young workers and could be poised to become one of the nation’s most youthful cities."

Postscript: I've woven a bunch of blog themes into this little post. A good as spot as any to double down on the producer city versus consumer city. Check out page 11 of this presentation. The scholar compares Pittsburgh with Asheville, two metros with similar gains in college graduates. Pittsburgh has 4 out of 4 positive labor market outcomes associated with its brain gain. Asheville has 0 out of 4. Portland, OR is also 0 for 4, sporting negative labor market outcomes across the board. I think the difference is talent production instead of talent attraction. Amenities as a lure wastes talent. A more organic boost to the college educational attainment rate informs a better labor market and healthier economic development.

Saturday, June 07, 2014

Racism, Reparations, and Migration

The broader category of xenophobia deserves more attention in the discussion about reparations at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Human rights and migration.

Subject Article: "The Case for Reparations: Two hundred fifty years of slavery. Ninety years of Jim Crow. Sixty years of separate but equal. Thirty-five years of racist housing policy. Until we reckon with our compounding moral debts, America will never be whole."

Other Links: 1. "How Housing Discrimination Created the Idea of Whiteness."
2. "Story of Ireland: The Age of Union."
3. "Black, British And 'Brain Drained': Playwright Takes Charge In Baltimore."
4. "'I was constantly moaning in London'" When actor and playwright Kwame Kwei-Armah left the UK to become artistic director of Baltimore's Center Stage theatre in 2011 he jumped headfirst into America's racial politics."

Postscript: I'm playing around with the idea that racism as a discourse fits within the broader category of xenophobia. Xenophobia is often confused (conflated?) with xenophobia. The rancor in Vancouver, BC over rising housing prices is a good example:

“The fact these millionaires (buying real estate in Vancouver) are mainly Chinese is not relevant to the debate, and that is why I am a bit distressed that this is being characterized as a racist discussion,” says Ian Young, the Vancouver correspondent for the South China Morning Post.

The geography of gentrification in Vancouver is relevant. That the real estate investment comes from China matters. But the spotlight continues to be on the suspected gentrifiers. Pointing a finger at a gentrifier is not racist. It is xenophobic. Xenophobia transcends racial discourse. The United States hasn't had "thirty-five years of racist housing policy." The United States has had thirty-five years of xenophobic policy. We cannot have a meaningful discussion about reparations without broadening the scope of the discussion to xenophobic citizenship law and practices.

Monday, June 02, 2014

Superstar Neighborhoods and the Concentration of Wealth

When grappling with gentrification, easier to deal with the demand than increase supply at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Gentrification and migration.

Subject Article: "Superstar Cities."

Other Links: 1. "Giving Up on Urban Neighborhoods."
2. "Turning Real Estate Market Fundamentals on Their Head."
3. "No MetroCard Needed: Bikes Change Your Brooklyn Apartment Hunt."
4. "The Geography of Anti-Gentrification: Google Buses and the World Trade Center."
5. "Tech booms: Too hot for jobs."
6. "On being priced out of downtown Detroit."
7. "The rise of the global capital: ‘Many ambitious Dutch people no longer want to join the Dutch elite. They want to join the global elite’."
8. "The Silicon diaspora: why the tech geeks are swapping Old Street for Stratford, Croydon and Kentish Town."
9. "AIG Sees Labor-Cost Arbitrage as Jobs Move to Philippines."

Postscript: "Hong Kong’s West Kowloon Cultural District – and its real estate: Were this an emerging arts hub in almost any other city, property prices would surely be soaring in anticipation."

As with much of Hong Kong’s high-end housing, West Kowloon’s residential market has gone into reverse. Prices are at present about 13 per cent off the highs, in line with falls elsewhere in the city, after the government introduced cooling measures – such as a tripling of stamp duty on purchases made by foreigners. It also coincided with the economic slowdown in China, a crackdown on corruption and lavish spending by the new government in Beijing, and the prospect of higher borrowing costs as the US Federal Reserve begins tapering its asset purchases. Knight Frank expects property prices to fall up to 15 per cent by the end of the year, while many analysts are even gloomier.

Emphasis added. The "cooling measures" attack demand for residential real estate. Zoning deregulation and more construction cannot target gentrification pressures in this manner. I've yet to encounter any consideration of demand side policy regarding gentrification in the United States. This is an egregious oversight.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Turning Real Estate Market Fundamentals on Their Head

Quality of demand for housing, not supply restrictions, driving geography of gentrification at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Gentrification mesofacts.

Subject Article: "No, really, it's about supply."

Other Links: 1. "Superstar Cities."
2. "Giving Up on Urban Neighborhoods."

Postscript: A sincere thank you to Daniel Kay Hertz for challenging my take on "Superstar Cities." What I love best about blogging is the exchange with other bloggers. Hertz's criticism forced me to revisit the paper on the superstar city phenomenon and I gained a better appreciation of how that analysis adds to the discourse about income inequality, which I overlooked the first time around. More about that in my next blog post.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Giving Up on Urban Neighborhoods

Letting urban neighborhoods die at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Rust Belt urban revitalization.

Subject Article: "Rehab aid focused in gentrifying areas, distressed areas languish."

Other Links: 1. "Neighborhoods by the Numbers: Data-Driven Tools for Neighborhood Revitalization."
2. "Money to L.A.'s 'Promise Zone' could displace poor, experts say."

Postscript: The policymakers are upfront about the decision to give up on the parts of the city overwhelmed with vacant buildings. Given the limited resources, what else can communities do? If you don't like it, take your grievance to the federal government. Until funding priorities change, urban neighborhood triage is the status quo.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Geography of Income Equality and Gentrification

Thanks to the globalization of real estate markets, cities are unable to manage gentrification at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and gentrification.

Subject Article: "Superstar Cities."


Postscript: Fun tool from Planet Money that allows for an apple-to-apples comparison between cities, taking "annual income for typical, full-time workers in different metro areas" and "adjusts that figure for the cost of living in each metro area". Plug in the Cleveland MSA and discover that the cost of living burden in Northeast Ohio feels like San Francisco. Also of note, Rochester, MN has the highest median wage after adjusting for cost of living. That's what tradable health care will generate.

Migration and Development in an Age of Growing Economic Inequality

For community and economic development, migration matters more than place at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: People develop, not places.

Subject Article: "Migration and Development Research Is Moving Far beyond Remittances."

Other Links: 1. "Reinventing Older Communities: Bridging Growth & Opportunity."
2. "The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000."
3. "The great escape: Emigration may not relieve pressure on wages in weak economies."

Postscript: An example of how migration is poorly understood in the realm of economic development:

The first (pervasive) misconception is that Africa  is urbanising exceptionally fast due to intensive rural-urban migration. This is simply not true. Africa’s rate of urbanisation (i.e. change in the percentage of Africans living in urban as opposed to rural areas) is far lower than that of East Asia, for example, and not unusually rapid by historical standards. However, what is true is that Africa’s urban population has been growing at an historically unprecedented rate for decades. It is important from a policy perspective to appreciate this distinction between rates of urbanisation and rates of urban population growth. Most policy makers don’t. ...

... From a practical perspective, the pressing challenges of providing adequate housing, infrastructure, employment opportunities and security in African cities relate to rapid urban population growth, not urbanisation. And yet governments and aid agencies have mistakenly sought to deal with these challenges by targeting rural-urban migration based on a misunderstanding of the dynamics shaping Africa’s urban transition. For those interested in easing demographic pressure in urban areas, the only humane policy option is to try to reduce population growth by promoting fertility decline through voluntary family planning initiatives. And for those interested in promoting economic development in the region, investment in urban areas should be top of the policy agenda.

Likewise, in US urban neighborhood policy, population decline is usually understood as a function of migration. Places growing in population are winning the vote with your feet election. Places with declining population suffer from brain drain. This misperception is rampant in the press and among policymakers, hindering our ability to address income inequality issues.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Myths of Population Decline and Fiscal Stress in American Cities

Growing cities have fiscal stress, too at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Mesofacts and municipal finance.

Subject Article: "Fiscal Stress in the Postindustrial City."

Other Links: 1. "Reinventing Older Communities: Bridging Growth & Opportunity."
2. "Gentrification Is in the Eye of the Beholder."
3. "Could the U.S. Become a Third-World Country?"

Postscript: Public safety and pension costs were cited as the two main components of fiscal stress. The same person who made this observation also used Vallejo's (California) bankruptcy as an example of how to play Moneyball with rising fiscal costs. Vallejo experienced decades of robust population growth leading up to the fiscal stress. The people in power couldn't blame a shrinking city. I think demographic decline has become a red herring for fiscal stress in Rust Belt cities. Brain drain makes a nice scapegoat in places where nonprofits that can't be taxed gobble up prime urban real estate.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Does Geographic Context Matter When Reinventing America’s Older Communities?

For revitalizing urban neighborhoods, geography is dead at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Geographic scale and policy efficacy.

Subject Article: "Reinventing Older Communities: Bridging Growth & Opportunity."

Other Links: 1. "Pittsburgh’s “Brain Gain:” A Model for San Antonio?"
2. "Keeping the Focus on People, Not Places, With Jim Russell."

Postscript: I think we can come up with a comprehensive list of neighborhood typologies that would inform good policy. The scale of intervention is the neighborhood, not the city or metro. These neighborhoods are dealing with global forces, not regional ones. In that regard, geographic context is not useful.

Monday, May 12, 2014

Gentrification Is in the Eye of the Beholder

Shrinking cities with appreciating rents at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic demographics and gentrification.

Subject Article: "Developers Turn Former Office Buildings Into High-End Apartments: In Cleveland and Other U.S. Cities, Rents for Residential Units Rise Amid Sluggish Office Demand."

Other Links: 1. "Who likes Pittsburgh? The answer shows up in low office vacancy rates."
2. "Real estate notes: Views on Pittsburgh apartment market."

Postscript: I am at the "Reinventing Older Communities: Bridging Growth & Opportunity" conference in Philadelphia today. This morning, I toured an urban neighborhood attempting to revitalize. Missing from the discussion is an understanding of how migration impacts community and economic development. I figure that's why gentrification pressure in dying Cleveland is so surprising. At best, the demographic analysis is superficial. Sometimes the analysis is just wrong. I'm angling to make migration a part of the reinventing older communities conversation.

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Why Is Brooklyn Dying?

Explaining Brooklyn's "demographic decline" at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: People develop, not places.

Subject Article: "Brooklyn’s Chinese Pioneers: Hardworking Fujianese immigrants use the borough as a launching pad to the middle class."

Other Links: 1. "Ironic Demographics: Brooklyn Is Dying."
2. "Income per Natural: Measuring Development as if People Mattered More Than Places."
3. "Spike Lee’s Amazing Rant Against Gentrification: ‘We Been Here!’"

Postscript: "The number of kids in the US would be shrinking if it weren't for immigrants":

A new report says that the number of children in the US increased during the recession — entirely because of the increase in children of immigrants. It's another reminder that America's immigrants are saving the country from the population decline facing a lot of the rest of the developed world.

State or municipal policy doesn't drive immigration. I'm tired of reading bogus claims about how a growing population is an indicator of economic health. Libertarian think tanks are the worst offenders, trying link population decline with legal regimes that are business unfriendly. Concerning demography, absolutely no thinking going on in those tanks.

Monday, May 05, 2014

Ironic Demographics: Brooklyn Is Dying

Gentrification is dying at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Geography of mesofacts.

Subject Article: "MORE ON THE LIMITS OF ANTI-GENTRIFICATION POLITICS: BROOKLYN IS GETTING POORER."

Other Links: 1. "Brooklyn Is Dying."
2. "Brooklyn And Park Slope Are Getting Less Alike, Not More."
3. "Pinsky: Middle class doesn’t need housing help."
4. "Voting With Your Feet."
5. "Rust Belt Resurgence: World Is Flat."

Postscript: "Brooklyn’s Chinese Pioneers: Hardworking Fujianese immigrants use the borough as a launching pad to the middle class"

While Brooklyn has gained international fame in recent years for its artisanal pickle-makers, hip-hop impresarios, and concierged condos, New York City’s largest borough has also undergone another—less media-friendly but (at least for longtime residents) equally unlikely—transformation. Over the past several decades, hundreds of thousands of mostly poor and sometimes undocumented immigrants from the Chinese province of Fujian have crammed themselves into dorm-like quarters, working brutally long hours waiting tables, washing dishes, and cleaning hotel rooms—and sending their Chinese-speaking children to the city’s elite public schools and on to various universities. The new Chinese immigrants are quietly having as great an effect on Brooklyn’s social, economic, and cultural landscape as are the borough’s hipsters and “trustafarians.” In turning a once-forgotten, now-overcrowded portion of Brooklyn into a launching ground into the middle class, they’re challenging new mayor Bill de Blasio’s portrait of New York as “a tale of two cities.”

This immigration probably explains Brooklyn's "dying" demographics.

Friday, May 02, 2014

In Cleveland, Income Growth Without Population Growth

Dying cities doing better economically than growing cities at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic demographics.

Subject Article: “Unexpected brain gain boosts Cleveland toward new economy, study finds.”

Other Links: 1. “Globalizing Cleveland: A Path Forward.”

Postscript: Rural towns are not dying”:

“The worse possible way to gauge success in a community is by looking at the population sign coming into town,” Linscheid said. “It’s the poorest measure of what is really going on and all of the changes happening.”

Measures and metrics have a history. Each one was born of a certain time and place, a specific political-economy. The population numbers is not so much a fact as an artifact of an economic epoch.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Explaining Gentrification: Real Estate Bubble Trouble in Stockholm

The microeconomics of housing supply pale in comparison to the macroeconomics of housing demand at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and gentrification.

Subject Article: "A Housing Surge in Sweden: Recent changes Sweden's tax system has attracted wealthy homeowners to the capital. But expect steep prices in Stockholm."

Other Links: 1. "Explaining Gentrification: Geography of Knowledge Hubs."
2. "Sweden's House Prices Have Tripled In Ten Years, But Is It Really A Bubble Waiting To Be Burst? Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman Thinks So."
3. "Scandinavia Is Looking Scary."
4. "Swedish Housing Surges to Unsafe Value as Debt Soars."
5. "East European oligarchs rush to snap up London property."
6. "The Chinese take Manhattan: replace Russians as top apartment buyers."
7. "Boston Mayor Looks to Skyscraper Housing to Forge Tech Capital."

Postscript: Don't shoot the messenger, "The High Cost of Geographically Illiterate Economists":

Prices on the San Francisco Peninsula won’t go down just because supply goes up. This one must just torture economists who continue to stare at their 2-D graph showing how demand always goes down when supply goes up. There are loads of factors that drive real estate prices. Sure supply is one factor. Here are a few others: proximity to employment opportunities, good schools, high-quality entertainment and other cultural amenities. Turns out the San Francisco Peninsula might be one of the best places to live in the entire world if your primary goal is to find a high-paying job near great Thai food restaurants and outdoor live music venues. People also like to live in places with great weather and they like a view of the ocean or the mountains or a lake or a park with trees and flowers. You know, the commodity you refer to as “open space”. Yes, people definitely like open space. Kids like to run around and play. Adults like to walk dogs. In fact, a regular dose of nature is good for our physical and mental health. The ability to conveniently access this type of open space is good for quality of life and when you provide a high quality of life this funny thing happens: people want to live in the vicinity and, voilà, housing demand and real estate prices go up.

Emphasis added. Geographers think about how people and places are connected across space. Economists analyze markets in isolation. What seems irrational to an economist, is perfectly rational to a geographer. When it comes to the demand side of the gentrification equation, economists (and urban planners) suck at geography.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Explaining Gentrification: Geography of Knowledge Hubs

University, not restrictive zoning, as agent of gentrification at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic gentrification.

Subject Article: "Introduction, Knowledge Hubs: Infrastructure and the Knowledge Economy in City-Regions."

Other Links: 1. "Hub Cities in the Knowledge Economy: Seaports, Airports, Brainports."
2. "Growth Without Growth: An Alternative Economic Development Goal For Metropolitan Areas."
3. "Penntrification: Mom-and-pops keep feeling the squeeze in West Philly."
4. "Explaining Gentrification."
5. "Explaining Gentrification: Global Jobs Versus Local Jobs."
6. "Black Bottom Blues: Revisiting the neighborhood that Penn and Drexel gobbled up."

Postscript: "The Chinese take Manhattan: replace Russians as top apartment buyers":

The Chinese are also venturing out to Long Island, where they are buying Gatsby-esque mansions set atop rolling greens.

Broker Shawn Elliott ferries around groups of Chinese buyers in Rolls Royce and Mercedes-Benz luxury sprinters every week, often catering to entire families at a time.

"They're looking for trophy properties," said Elliott. "They're looking for their children to be comfortable, and to be near Columbia or New York University."

The quality of the real estate buyers is more important than the quantity of real estate buyers. The mantra "increase supply" in order to abate gentrification is reductionist, in the worst way.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Explaining Gentrification: Global Jobs Versus Local Jobs

Explaining ironic gentrification in Pittsburgh at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Global talent migration.

Subject Article: "Pittsburgh renting rates rising quickly."

Other Links: 1. "The cost of blight: vacant and abandoned properties."
2. "Urban Decline in Rust-Belt Cities."
3. "Explaining Gentrification."
4. "Sky's the limit for Atlanta rents: Ponce City Market leases are just a sampling."
5. "University Circle aims to help small businesses rise with the neighborhood: gentrification 101."

Postscript: Lack of housing supply is not the only cause of gentrification. In this post, I show how global labor markets push up rents in shrinking cities where the housing supply is ample to meet demand. Yet gentrification still exists.In a forthcoming post, I explore the real estate bubble in Stockholm, Sweden as another possible cause of gentrification.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Explaining Gentrification

Constraints on talent supply, not affordable housing, better explains gentrification at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: War for talent.

Subject Article: "Housing markets: The spectre haunting San Francisco."

Other Links: 1. "Rudy Giuliani: Press Release - Mayor Giuliani Cleaned Up New York City."
2. "Aberdeen, the city outpacing even London’s property boom."
3. "Oil and gas expansion to create 20,000 Scottish jobs."
4. "Bright Flight From Silicon Valley."

Postscript: I don't buy the argument that housing supply is the primary driver of gentrification. "Still More Bounce in California":

Silicon Valley tops the list of highest paid metropolitan areas when it comes to tech talent, with an average annual salary of $108,603 and an average annual bonus of $12,458. The seven percent year-over-year increase in salary was partially driven by those tech professionals earning more than $250,000 being included in this year’s results. Excluding those highly paid professionals, Silicon Valley salaries still increased at a greater rate than the national average or five percent year-over-year.

Looking at median rent as a share of median income, the supposedly exceptionally tight San Francisco market isn't the least affordable city. It ranks 7th nationally. To date, all I've read is anecdotal data supporting the claim that artificial housing supply restriction is the culprit for gentrification. Meanwhile, gentrification is occurring just about everywhere (even in dying Rust Belt cities) in a variety of policy geographies.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Friday, April 11, 2014

Thursday, April 10, 2014

The City Is Dying

The ironic geography of dying cities at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Demographic decline.

Subject Article: "Population of rural America continues to fall."

Other Links: 1. "Peak Urbanization."
2. "The Era of Dying Places: Everyone Is Starved for Talent, but Migration Is a Thing of the Past."
3. "Urbanization As Opportunity."
4. "Los Angeles Is Beginning to Look a Lot Like Pittsburgh."
5. "Which Poor Neighborhoods Experienced Income Growth in Recent Decades?"
6. "The Case for More Babies."

Postscript: For example, Los Angeles is dying:

But the most worrisome blow by far is a scathing verdict on Los Angeles’s civic health that was delivered in a one-two punch — the second on Wednesday — by a committee of lawyers, developers, labor leaders and former elected officials who make up something of the Old Guard here. The Los Angeles 2020 Commission presented a catalog of failings that it said were a unique burden to the city: widespread poverty and job stagnation, huge municipal pension obligations, a struggling port and tourism industry and paralyzing traffic that would not be eased even with a continuing multibillion-dollar mass transit initiative.

Their conclusions amounted to an indictment of a city and its culture, a place that the commission said was brimming with talent and resources but was nonetheless falling behind other major cities across the globe.

“Los Angeles is barely treading water, while the rest of the world is moving forward,” the commission said. “We risk falling further behind in adapting to the realities of the 21st century and becoming a city in decline.”

It was a good run.

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Peak Urbanization

The city is dying at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Demographic decline.

Subject Article: "Austin or Bust: America's Biggest Cities Lose People to the Urban B-List."

Other Links: 1. "Bright Flight From Silicon Valley."
2. "The End Of Geography."
3. "End Of Urban Hierarchy."
4. "Rust Belt Geographic Arbitrage: Buffalo."
5. "After years of brain drain, young people are moving back to Buffalo."
6. "Mesofact Migration."
7. "Website of Samuel Arbesman."
8. "The World Is Spiky: Globalization has changed the economic playing field, but hasn't leveled it."
9. "Why the Rent Is Too Damn High."
10. "People Develop, Not Places."

Postscript: To presage the next post, a teaser:

In developed countries, the urbanization project is basically complete. The remaining urban growth will play out almost entirely in developing countries. In 2010, the urban population in the regions that the United Nations classifies as less developed stood at 2.6 billion. In 100 years, it is likely to be three times larger. Moreover, as Angel (2012) shows, the historical pattern of urban growth suggests that over this time horizon, urban population density in developing cities could easily fall by half.

Emphasis added. If not for immigration, that would be obvious by now in the United States.

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Bright Flight From Silicon Valley

Talent outmigration ravaging Silicon Valley at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Ironic talent migration.

Subject Article: "Cities See a 'Bright Flight': Highly Educated Americans Increasingly Move to More Affordable Metro Areas in South, West."

Other Links: 1. "Is Silicon Valley Similar to Detroit?"
2. "Tech-savvy drawn to warm climate and cool image of Barcelona."
3. "Silicon Rust."
4. "In Silicon Valley, a New Investment: Eviction."
5. "Los Angeles Is Beginning to Look a Lot Like Pittsburgh."
6. "Bye-Bye, Baby."

Postscript: Blog fodder for my next post, moving down the urban hierarchy:

As a professional thirtysomething who has lived in both New York and Los Angeles, I sometimes feel as if everyone I know is hatching plans to flee to somewhere less expensive, less massive, less hectic, and—again for good measure—less expensive. I know people who have moved in recent years from Los Angeles to Charlotte, from Boston to Durham, from New York to Seattle, from the Bay Area to Denver. Thanks to new U.S. Census data, I now know I am not going crazy. The flight to second-tier cities is thriving.

While the big name prognosticators cling foolishly to the past and claim the world is getting spikier, the undercurrents of flat world have finally gone mainstream. Goodbye, Silicon Valley.

Thursday, April 03, 2014

Silicon Rust

The un-tethering of innovation from geography at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Convergence of Innovation Economy.

Subject Article: "Vivek Wadhwa: Location No Longer Determines Success."

Other Links: 1. "Silicon Shore: How Newcastle Quietly Became A Tech Hub."
2. "The New Geography of Jobs."
3. "Talent Is the New Oil: OPEC of Tech."
4. "Cleveland's 'trouble-making' demographer gets a center to plot the region's growth."
5. "Cost-of-living chasm buoying tech firms."
6. "Midnight in the Rust Belt."
7. "Creating Reagan's image / S.F. ad man Riney helped secure him a second term."

Postscript: To put a bird on Silicon Valley decline, Financial Times story about the H-1B visa rush:

Last year, that allotment went in the first few days after applications opened. This year, immigration attorneys and company executives say, the race will be as tough, if not tougher, as rising tech valuations have fuelled demand for coders.

That is pushing some companies to think more strategically than before about immigration, said John Bautista, a partner with Orrick, a law firm in Silicon Valley.

In the past few months, he says, some companies with US-only operations have started asking whether they could open a new office abroad in order to recruit people and then bring them into the US on a type of visa allocated to existing employees for internal transfers.

“Before [corporate boards said], ‘We’ve got someone we want to hire, what’s the best way to bring him over?’”, said Mr Bautista. “Now it’s, ‘We have a hiring problem, let’s use the immigration laws to come up with an overall strategy to bring teams of people onboard.’”

Silicon Valley has a hiring problem. It no longer corners the market on tech talent.