At Pacific Standard magazine, innovation is increasingly flat (not spiky).
Theme: Economic convergence.
Subject Article: "L.A. tech economy is underrated, venture capitalist Peter Thiel says."
Other Links: 1. "Bay Area growth crisis: 114,000 new jobs created and 7,000 new housing units."
2. "Big tech start-ups bypass Silicon Valley."
Postscript: Whatever you want to call the economic era after manufacturing (if you think there is a successor to manufacturing), I see evidence of convergence. Economic convergence is decline. In less normative terms, convergent economic activity diffuses geographically. Economic activity that used to concentrate in Silicon Valley now happens elsewhere. The world goes from, in Richard Florida parlance, spiky to flat. However, the world still looks spiky, but less so. I'm not interested in the false dichotomy (spiky vs. flat). I'm interested in the trend (spikier vs. flatter or divergent vs. convergent).
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Monday, October 27, 2014
The Other Side of the Growing Disconnect Between Where You Live and Work
Importing cheap labor into high wage regions at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Workers paid $1.21 an hour to install Fremont tech company's computers."
Other Links: 1. "The Geography of Foreign Investment in Real Estate."
2. "Consumer City."
Postscript: Rents don't have to rise for gentrification to occur. "The Housing Crisis We Don’t Talk About":
I think economic dislocation should be defined as "gentrification". The focus on the one side of the housing affordability equation (i.e. rent) has informed some really bad policy recommendations.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Workers paid $1.21 an hour to install Fremont tech company's computers."
Other Links: 1. "The Geography of Foreign Investment in Real Estate."
2. "Consumer City."
Postscript: Rents don't have to rise for gentrification to occur. "The Housing Crisis We Don’t Talk About":
Chester is what is known, in real estate industry jargon, as a “weak market city.” The phrase means what it sounds like. The city is poor and its economy stagnant. The median home sale price in Chester in 2012 was $20,000, compared to $69,350 in nearby Wilmington and $98,000 in Philadelphia. Fewer than half of Chester’s working-age adults are employed, and a third of the population is living at or below the poverty line. In a city where median rent is $790, 51.5 percent of households pay 35 percent or more of their income to their landlords.
I think economic dislocation should be defined as "gentrification". The focus on the one side of the housing affordability equation (i.e. rent) has informed some really bad policy recommendations.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Congratulations, Your City Is Dying!
Shrinking cities have stronger economies at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Low birth rates can actually pay off in the U.S. and other countries."
Postscript: Most people are well aware of the legacy costs stemming from an aging population. Less discussed are the costs of a young and growing population. That a growing population is better than demographic decline is just assumed. Once again, folk wisdom drives policy instead of analysis.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Low birth rates can actually pay off in the U.S. and other countries."
Postscript: Most people are well aware of the legacy costs stemming from an aging population. Less discussed are the costs of a young and growing population. That a growing population is better than demographic decline is just assumed. Once again, folk wisdom drives policy instead of analysis.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Cheating Demographic Doom: Pittsburgh Exceptionalism and Japan’s Surprising Economic Resilience
Doing the demographic decline at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Ironic demography
Subject Article: "Where Young College Graduates Are Choosing to Live."
Other Links: 1. "The U.S. Cities Attracting The Most Families."
2. "How Many People Left Pittsburgh During the 1980s?"
3. "The Young and Restless and the Nation’s Cities."
4. "Growth Without Growth: An Alternative Economic Development Goal For Metropolitan Areas."
5. "The Metro Story: Growth Without Growth."
6. "Gender Wage Disparity in the Pittsburgh Region: Analyzing Causes and Differences in the Gender Wage Gap."
Postscript: Manhattan is dying, "The emptying of New York City: Nearly 1 million fewer people live in Manhattan now than a century ago. One reason: It got richer." Manhattan has lost more people than Pittsburgh ever housed at its population peak. As you all know, population decline is a strong indicator of a city in substantial economic decline.
Theme: Ironic demography
Subject Article: "Where Young College Graduates Are Choosing to Live."
Other Links: 1. "The U.S. Cities Attracting The Most Families."
2. "How Many People Left Pittsburgh During the 1980s?"
3. "The Young and Restless and the Nation’s Cities."
4. "Growth Without Growth: An Alternative Economic Development Goal For Metropolitan Areas."
5. "The Metro Story: Growth Without Growth."
6. "Gender Wage Disparity in the Pittsburgh Region: Analyzing Causes and Differences in the Gender Wage Gap."
Postscript: Manhattan is dying, "The emptying of New York City: Nearly 1 million fewer people live in Manhattan now than a century ago. One reason: It got richer." Manhattan has lost more people than Pittsburgh ever housed at its population peak. As you all know, population decline is a strong indicator of a city in substantial economic decline.
Friday, October 17, 2014
Seattle, the Incredible Shrinking City
The gentrification of your single family home at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Gentrification and migration.
Subject Article: "Scrunched in Seattle: Is this hipster hovel the future of the American city?"
Other Links: 1. "Tech Company Wagons Ho! Geography of the Urban Land Rush."
2. "Overflowing Fairfax Homes Split Neighbors."
Postscript: Read the following this morning, thinking about the connection between concerns about gentrification and NIMBYism:
Passive residential displacement (is that gentrification?) can take two forms. The first, being priced out of a neighborhood, is the common understanding of the term "gentrification". Less common is the kind described above in the quoted passage. The quality of the neighborhood changes and no longer feels like home. The two forms of passive residential displacement weave together, but the common thread is a sense of place (how we define home).
Turning the concept on its head, consider preemptive gentrification. I want to move my family to a neighborhood where the schools are better and the streets safer. I can't because the rent is too damn high there. But I have no standing, no claim to that place because it isn't my home. I can't afford it. Tough luck.
Being priced out of a place is quite common. It would be more common if residents didn't go through extreme measures to stay put or move into the best school district. The main rub, outside of academic considerations, concerns quality of place and sense of home. But such changes could render a neighborhood more affordable. We balk because it no longer feels like home.
Theme: Gentrification and migration.
Subject Article: "Scrunched in Seattle: Is this hipster hovel the future of the American city?"
Other Links: 1. "Tech Company Wagons Ho! Geography of the Urban Land Rush."
2. "Overflowing Fairfax Homes Split Neighbors."
Postscript: Read the following this morning, thinking about the connection between concerns about gentrification and NIMBYism:
Your question posits whether there is a need for more housing in East Dallas, which I find somewhat off the mark. I suspect, rather, that developers are speculating on a potentially profitable market for people who want to live here. That said, I’m OK, in general, with some new apartment and condo development in East Dallas. My support depends entirely on what is being torn down and where, plus the size and appearance of what is to be built. If the wrecking ball and huge North Texas-style developments are headed for our older, traditional, single-family homes and neighborhoods, I object. A number of Dallas developers have been steadily decimating East Dallas since the 1950s. Once upon a time, Live Oak and Ross were known as Painted Lady Rows, a beautiful gateway to downtown … leveled for parking lots, gas stations and cheap, soon blighted, commercial buildings and apartments. We almost lost the incredible Swiss Avenue in the 1970s. Then the 1990s McMansion craze began its broken-tooth effect on previously charming streetscapes. If this is another wave of destruction headed for what’s left of historic East Dallas, please, let’s exercise caution before there’s little left. Guess what’ll happen once the developers have milked their short-term profits and the market for people willing to pay to live here disappears along with the old neighborhoods and the charm?
Passive residential displacement (is that gentrification?) can take two forms. The first, being priced out of a neighborhood, is the common understanding of the term "gentrification". Less common is the kind described above in the quoted passage. The quality of the neighborhood changes and no longer feels like home. The two forms of passive residential displacement weave together, but the common thread is a sense of place (how we define home).
Turning the concept on its head, consider preemptive gentrification. I want to move my family to a neighborhood where the schools are better and the streets safer. I can't because the rent is too damn high there. But I have no standing, no claim to that place because it isn't my home. I can't afford it. Tough luck.
Being priced out of a place is quite common. It would be more common if residents didn't go through extreme measures to stay put or move into the best school district. The main rub, outside of academic considerations, concerns quality of place and sense of home. But such changes could render a neighborhood more affordable. We balk because it no longer feels like home.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Comparing Apples to the Big Apple: Yes, Washington, D.C., Is More Expensive Than New York City
Contrary to what the Wall Street Journal claims, the metropolitan geographic unit of analysis for New York City is the same as the metropolitan geographic unit of analysis for Washington, D.C.
Theme: Geographic stereotypes.
Subject Article: "No, Washington, D.C., Is Not More Expensive than New York City."
Other Links: 1. "BLS report on cost of living."
2. "It’s more expensive to live in D.C. than New York, study says."
3. "D.C. is more expensive than New York? Twitter reacts."
4. "Behind a Blue-Collar Cliché: 'The Office' and returning natives help Scranton, Pa., stage a comeback."
5. "Fortresses of Globalization and Wilmington, Delaware."
6. "D.C. more expensive than New York? It’s complicated."
Postscript: Jed Kolko, Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, chimes in on the confusion:
There you have it. All the hyperventilating about comparing apples-to-oranges was for naught.
Theme: Geographic stereotypes.
Subject Article: "No, Washington, D.C., Is Not More Expensive than New York City."
Other Links: 1. "BLS report on cost of living."
2. "It’s more expensive to live in D.C. than New York, study says."
3. "D.C. is more expensive than New York? Twitter reacts."
4. "Behind a Blue-Collar Cliché: 'The Office' and returning natives help Scranton, Pa., stage a comeback."
5. "Fortresses of Globalization and Wilmington, Delaware."
6. "D.C. more expensive than New York? It’s complicated."
Postscript: Jed Kolko, Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, chimes in on the confusion:
The real problem with DC-more-$ claim is that data on average spending was misinterpreted as a cost-of-living metric.
There you have it. All the hyperventilating about comparing apples-to-oranges was for naught.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Tech Company Wagons Ho! Geography of the Urban Land Rush
Tech companies build suburban campuses in the urban core at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Space Shift: As Wealthiest Flock to Supertall Condos, Offices Go Horizontal."
Other Links: 1. "Are Millennials Willing to Spend Most of Their Income on Housing?"
2. "Why Technology Firms Are Moving Downtown."
Postscript: Millennial housing choices subsidize tech labor costs when firms locate downtown (while retaining a suburban-like footprint):
Tech companies, looking to employ well-educated millennials, are expanding their urban footprint. Millennials, looking for city-living and proximity to work, are actively shrinking their urban footprint to lower the cost of rent (or homeownership) forced up by in-migrating tech companies.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Space Shift: As Wealthiest Flock to Supertall Condos, Offices Go Horizontal."
Other Links: 1. "Are Millennials Willing to Spend Most of Their Income on Housing?"
2. "Why Technology Firms Are Moving Downtown."
Postscript: Millennial housing choices subsidize tech labor costs when firms locate downtown (while retaining a suburban-like footprint):
Seattle boasts the highest number of micro-dwellings in the country—3,000 at last count. It also permits the most audaciously minimal units, some as small as 90 square feet. That’s about the size of two prison cells put together.
It’s not for the claustrophobic, but it does come with perks—including the chance for millennials and those with modest incomes to settle in vibrant urban neighborhoods. Their presence, in turn, injects new energy to the heart of the city while tamping down suburban sprawl. Micro-housing reflects a growing zeitgeist—to stop accruing, go minimalist and reduce one’s footprint. Indeed, the name of Seattle’s leading micro-housing development company is called Footprint.
Tech companies, looking to employ well-educated millennials, are expanding their urban footprint. Millennials, looking for city-living and proximity to work, are actively shrinking their urban footprint to lower the cost of rent (or homeownership) forced up by in-migrating tech companies.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Solving the Hispanic Mortality Paradox
Place-based metrics make people seem poorer than they are at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Why Hispanic-Americans live longer: The mystery that has puzzled researchers for decades."
Postscript: I've told this tale before. How does one figure out if global cities undermine state sovereignty when the data are national and not urban? Geographer Peter Taylor grappled with this question. Geographic units of analysis are social constructs. The bias is built into the metrics. What we measure tells us more than the measurements. Scholars studying domestic poverty have fallen into this place-trap.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Why Hispanic-Americans live longer: The mystery that has puzzled researchers for decades."
Postscript: I've told this tale before. How does one figure out if global cities undermine state sovereignty when the data are national and not urban? Geographer Peter Taylor grappled with this question. Geographic units of analysis are social constructs. The bias is built into the metrics. What we measure tells us more than the measurements. Scholars studying domestic poverty have fallen into this place-trap.
Thursday, October 09, 2014
A Global City of Eds and Meds
Putting "Flyover Country" on the global mental map at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and urban redevelopment.
Subject Article: "Rochester downtown building sells for $10 million."
Other Links: 1. "The Geography of Foreign Investment in Real Estate."
2. "Are Millennials Willing to Spend Most of Their Income on Housing?"
3. "Urban Decline in Rust-Belt Cities."
4. "Increasing spatial and economic polarization in America’s older industrial cities."
Postscript: The problem with eds and meds global neighborhoods in Buffalo:
Globalization will continue to pop up in the damnedest places. But the benefits won't trickle down to the poor located in isolate neighborhoods. Tremendous wealth will reside cheek by jowl with tremendous poverty. Looking at Rust Belt cities in aggregate washes out the few places where wages and rents look quite similar to those of thriving global cities, which is why gentrification in shrinking cities strikes many as ironic (or simply unbelievable).
Theme: Globalization and urban redevelopment.
Subject Article: "Rochester downtown building sells for $10 million."
Other Links: 1. "The Geography of Foreign Investment in Real Estate."
2. "Are Millennials Willing to Spend Most of Their Income on Housing?"
3. "Urban Decline in Rust-Belt Cities."
4. "Increasing spatial and economic polarization in America’s older industrial cities."
Postscript: The problem with eds and meds global neighborhoods in Buffalo:
Henry L. Taylor Jr. has focused much of his work on reviving East Side neighborhoods, from the area around Futures Academy – in the shadow of the Medical Campus, but hardly benefiting from it – to the Commodore Perry neighborhood now being eyed for transformation.
Globalization will continue to pop up in the damnedest places. But the benefits won't trickle down to the poor located in isolate neighborhoods. Tremendous wealth will reside cheek by jowl with tremendous poverty. Looking at Rust Belt cities in aggregate washes out the few places where wages and rents look quite similar to those of thriving global cities, which is why gentrification in shrinking cities strikes many as ironic (or simply unbelievable).
Wednesday, October 08, 2014
The Urban Geography of Globalization: Global Neighborhoods
The rise of nano core neighborhoods at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and urban geography.
Subject Article: "Growing clout of global cities offers property opportunities: Top urban centres will seek to attract talent with non-traditional business districts, and investors should be looking at these new zones."
Other Links: 1. "Housing in New York, London is attractive as an investment for outsiders because it's scarce!"
2. "What draws Chinese investment? It's simple, says foreign capital expert: Direct flights to China and a Top 25 university. @LuskCenter talk."
3. "The Politics of Anti-NIMBYism and Addressing Housing Affordability."
4. "Affordable Housing: Geography of Supply and Demand."
5. "Downtown Mountain View's 303 Bryant St. sells for record price."
Postscript: I'm attempting to pivot away from critiquing the supply-side model of housing affordability. I am mainly interested in how the migration of global labor (people toiling in diverging, tradable jobs) transform regional economies. Nano core neighborhoods are popping up in cities that no one confuses as global. Tradable eds and meds are driving real estate appreciation in Rust Belt cities such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Tracking the migration of this labor force cohort should be a leading indicator of globalization and the associated real estate dynamics detailed in my latest post.
Theme: Globalization and urban geography.
Subject Article: "Growing clout of global cities offers property opportunities: Top urban centres will seek to attract talent with non-traditional business districts, and investors should be looking at these new zones."
Other Links: 1. "Housing in New York, London is attractive as an investment for outsiders because it's scarce!"
2. "What draws Chinese investment? It's simple, says foreign capital expert: Direct flights to China and a Top 25 university. @LuskCenter talk."
3. "The Politics of Anti-NIMBYism and Addressing Housing Affordability."
4. "Affordable Housing: Geography of Supply and Demand."
5. "Downtown Mountain View's 303 Bryant St. sells for record price."
Postscript: I'm attempting to pivot away from critiquing the supply-side model of housing affordability. I am mainly interested in how the migration of global labor (people toiling in diverging, tradable jobs) transform regional economies. Nano core neighborhoods are popping up in cities that no one confuses as global. Tradable eds and meds are driving real estate appreciation in Rust Belt cities such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Tracking the migration of this labor force cohort should be a leading indicator of globalization and the associated real estate dynamics detailed in my latest post.
Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Are Millennials Willing to Spend Most of Their Income on Housing?
At Pacific Standard magazine, Millennials prove to be the source of urban gentrification.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Panel: Lack of affordable housing hurts economic development."
Other Links: 1. "Arcade Fire, Spike Jonze Steal Youth In ‘The Suburbs’ Video: Canadian indie rockers' clip is a somber comment on adulthood."
2. "Transit struggles with North America's move downtown: Millennials' desire to live near their workplaces strains cities from Toronto to Los Angeles."
3. "Urban Development: Faster Greener Commutes Key to Sustained City Growth."
Postscript: From Portland, Oregon to Brooklyn, NYC, a common theme emerges. Some people are willing to endure an irrational migration to a place where the return (i.e. wages) on living in the city doesn't justify the cost (i.e. rent). Ed Glaeser, Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz looked at this "Consumer City" conundrum. In their model, certain amenities fill the deficit between wages and housing costs. In effect, a streetcar could subsidize lower wages in a cool city. Employers are happy. Real estate developers are happy. Apparently, Millennials are happy with the arrangement. Clearly unhappy are tenured residents who cannot afford the amenity dividend, as the research of Rebecca Diamond demonstrates.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Panel: Lack of affordable housing hurts economic development."
Other Links: 1. "Arcade Fire, Spike Jonze Steal Youth In ‘The Suburbs’ Video: Canadian indie rockers' clip is a somber comment on adulthood."
2. "Transit struggles with North America's move downtown: Millennials' desire to live near their workplaces strains cities from Toronto to Los Angeles."
3. "Urban Development: Faster Greener Commutes Key to Sustained City Growth."
Postscript: From Portland, Oregon to Brooklyn, NYC, a common theme emerges. Some people are willing to endure an irrational migration to a place where the return (i.e. wages) on living in the city doesn't justify the cost (i.e. rent). Ed Glaeser, Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz looked at this "Consumer City" conundrum. In their model, certain amenities fill the deficit between wages and housing costs. In effect, a streetcar could subsidize lower wages in a cool city. Employers are happy. Real estate developers are happy. Apparently, Millennials are happy with the arrangement. Clearly unhappy are tenured residents who cannot afford the amenity dividend, as the research of Rebecca Diamond demonstrates.
Monday, October 06, 2014
The Geography of Foreign Investment in Real Estate
Real estate investment doesn't bet on continued housing supply restrictions at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Here’s one idea for taxing the rich and making housing more affordable."
Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
2. "Strategist makes case for industry clusters."
3. "Odd @badler argument here that flexible supply wouldn't address problem of foreign buyers."
4. "Housing in New York, London is attractive as an investment for outsiders because it's scarce!."
5. "Indians Join the Wave of Investors in Condos and Homes in the U.S."
6. "U.S. Private High Schools Accommodate Influx of Chinese Students."
7. "The Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology Admissions Office."
Postscript: Northern Front Range of Colorado defines housing affordability problem:
Millennial demand, not supply restrictions, are pricing out tenured urban residents.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Here’s one idea for taxing the rich and making housing more affordable."
Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
2. "Strategist makes case for industry clusters."
3. "Odd @badler argument here that flexible supply wouldn't address problem of foreign buyers."
4. "Housing in New York, London is attractive as an investment for outsiders because it's scarce!."
5. "Indians Join the Wave of Investors in Condos and Homes in the U.S."
6. "U.S. Private High Schools Accommodate Influx of Chinese Students."
7. "The Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology Admissions Office."
Postscript: Northern Front Range of Colorado defines housing affordability problem:
Nick Hansen, managing partner and broker at The Group Inc. in Fort Collins, said Millennials, those in their 20s and early 30s, are exacerbating the problem in urban areas.
“Millennials are willing to pay 50 percent of their income on housing so they can live in urban settings. That drives up rents and pushes out others who can’t afford that,” Hansen said.
Millennial demand, not supply restrictions, are pricing out tenured urban residents.
Friday, October 03, 2014
The Political Geography of Economic Development
Alabama's right-to-work boondoggle at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Economic development geography.
Subject Article: "Right-to-work laws build booming Alabama-Japanese connection, employing 12k Alabamians."
Other Links: 1. "Where Indiana Goes, So Goes the Nation: The state's history with organized labor encompasses the country's pro- and anti-union forces."
2. "Sen. Shelby: How Sweet Is the Auto Business in Alabama? Not Very."
3. "Honda Worldwide: Company Overview."
4. "Know Your Rights: Michigan's Right to Work Law."
Postscript: The only way state politicians can hail the economic development benefits of right-to-work legislation is to make them up, outright lie.
Theme: Economic development geography.
Subject Article: "Right-to-work laws build booming Alabama-Japanese connection, employing 12k Alabamians."
Other Links: 1. "Where Indiana Goes, So Goes the Nation: The state's history with organized labor encompasses the country's pro- and anti-union forces."
2. "Sen. Shelby: How Sweet Is the Auto Business in Alabama? Not Very."
3. "Honda Worldwide: Company Overview."
4. "Know Your Rights: Michigan's Right to Work Law."
Postscript: The only way state politicians can hail the economic development benefits of right-to-work legislation is to make them up, outright lie.
Wednesday, October 01, 2014
The Creative Class Boondoggle in Downtown Las Vegas
The lust for greater density is pornographic at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Downtown Las Vegas Is the Great American Techtopia."
Other Links: 1. "Why Density Matters."
2. "Looking Beyond the Maps of Richard Florida’s 'The Divided City.'"
3. "The Urban Tech Revolution."
4. "STATEMENT From Tony Hsieh, 9/30/14 Downtown Project Q&A: there are a lot of misleading headlines flying around out there…"
5. "Is Jane Jacobs The Justin Bieber Of Urbanism?"
6. "Tony Hsieh: Helping Revitalize a City."
Postscript: Follow the Re/code series (6 parts of, I believe, 10 are already published) about Tony Hsieh's Downtown Las Vegas project.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Downtown Las Vegas Is the Great American Techtopia."
Other Links: 1. "Why Density Matters."
2. "Looking Beyond the Maps of Richard Florida’s 'The Divided City.'"
3. "The Urban Tech Revolution."
4. "STATEMENT From Tony Hsieh, 9/30/14 Downtown Project Q&A: there are a lot of misleading headlines flying around out there…"
5. "Is Jane Jacobs The Justin Bieber Of Urbanism?"
6. "Tony Hsieh: Helping Revitalize a City."
Postscript: Follow the Re/code series (6 parts of, I believe, 10 are already published) about Tony Hsieh's Downtown Las Vegas project.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
The Geography of Poverty and Migration
At Pacific Standard magazine, the people who most need to move tend to stay put.
Theme: Relationship between geographic mobility and poverty.
Subject Article: "Why People Move: Exploring the March 2000 Current Population Survey."
Other Links: 1. "America’s coal heartland is in economic freefall — but only the most desperate are fleeing."
2. "Decade after being declared nation's poorest big city, 1-in-3 Clevelanders remain in poverty."
3. "Misunderstanding Residential Segregation."
4. "Retail Redlining Is Reshaping Communities."
Postscript: Why the poorest staying where the jobs aren't is ironic:
The popular perception of why people move is at odds with who moves and where they go. Furthermore, net migration is a function of coming and going. Who is moving to Vermont and why? To me, that's the more pressing question. No one asks because we believe place-failure causes migration. It doesn't.
Theme: Relationship between geographic mobility and poverty.
Subject Article: "Why People Move: Exploring the March 2000 Current Population Survey."
Other Links: 1. "America’s coal heartland is in economic freefall — but only the most desperate are fleeing."
2. "Decade after being declared nation's poorest big city, 1-in-3 Clevelanders remain in poverty."
3. "Misunderstanding Residential Segregation."
4. "Retail Redlining Is Reshaping Communities."
Postscript: Why the poorest staying where the jobs aren't is ironic:
But since 2005, more people have been leaving Vermont than moving here from other states, an average of about 1,000 each year. When people vote with their feet, they are saying something about the desirability of a state.
Those people are saying that despite its many attractions, Vermont is not a popular place for people to live and work. If it was, net migration would be positive, not negative. ...
... The out-migration of people tells us something about opportunities, the attractiveness of the state to people, its desirability as a place to live, and its overall quality of life. As people weigh all those factors, more have decided to leave Vermont than to come live here.
The popular perception of why people move is at odds with who moves and where they go. Furthermore, net migration is a function of coming and going. Who is moving to Vermont and why? To me, that's the more pressing question. No one asks because we believe place-failure causes migration. It doesn't.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
The Portlandia Paradox
Joe Cortright's "second paycheck" won't pay the rent in Portland at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Portland: Hardly 'A Retirement Community for the Young.' Hey, New York Times: Portland happens to outshine many U.S. cities in entrepreneurship, job growth, productivity—and the elusive 'second paycheck.'"
Other Links: 1. "Will Portland Always Be a Retirement Community for the Young?"
2. "The Young and Restless in a Knowledge Economy."
3. "City Dividends: Gains from Improving Metropolitan Performance."
4. "Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated."
5. "No Innovation Without Migration: Portlandia Is Dying."
6. "Metrics FAQ with Joe Cortright."
7. "Distilling Portland in a Glass."
8. "Keep Portland Weird (Or Forget About a Real Estate Boom)."
Postscript: Rising college educational attainment rates positively correlate with rising per capita income. Economist Joe Cortright implied a causal relationship between the two in crafting the "Talent Dividend" initiative. Concerning economic development, that's the Portland Way. Use cool amenities to attract/retain a college-educated workforce. Voila, per capita income will go up. In Portland, the talent dividend is yet to materialize. In Pittsburgh, it has:
That tells me that Albouy understands the causal relationship between college educational attainment rate and per capita income, while Cortright does not.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Portland: Hardly 'A Retirement Community for the Young.' Hey, New York Times: Portland happens to outshine many U.S. cities in entrepreneurship, job growth, productivity—and the elusive 'second paycheck.'"
Other Links: 1. "Will Portland Always Be a Retirement Community for the Young?"
2. "The Young and Restless in a Knowledge Economy."
3. "City Dividends: Gains from Improving Metropolitan Performance."
4. "Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated."
5. "No Innovation Without Migration: Portlandia Is Dying."
6. "Metrics FAQ with Joe Cortright."
7. "Distilling Portland in a Glass."
8. "Keep Portland Weird (Or Forget About a Real Estate Boom)."
Postscript: Rising college educational attainment rates positively correlate with rising per capita income. Economist Joe Cortright implied a causal relationship between the two in crafting the "Talent Dividend" initiative. Concerning economic development, that's the Portland Way. Use cool amenities to attract/retain a college-educated workforce. Voila, per capita income will go up. In Portland, the talent dividend is yet to materialize. In Pittsburgh, it has:
"[David Albouy, an economics professor at the University of Illinois,] told me that he has always wondered why Portland doesn’t invest more in its institutions of higher education. If you took Portland’s quality of life and citizens, he said, and added Pittsburgh’s universities, you would come out with a world-class city."
That tells me that Albouy understands the causal relationship between college educational attainment rate and per capita income, while Cortright does not.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
No Innovation Without Migration: Portlandia Is Dying
Creative collisions in Portlandia fail to produce innovation at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Will Portland Always Be a Retirement Community for the Young?"
Other Links: 1. "Field Of Dreams Portland."
2. "We Got More Educated, We Are Better Off... Right? An Analysis of Regional Conversion of Bachelors Degree Attainment into Positive Labor Market Outcomes."
Postscript: In reaction to the subject article, Alan Berube (Brookings) tweeted, "Portland is 'overeducated and underemployed but GDP per head up 50% since 2001? Doesn't add up." Consider manufacturing. employment goes down while production goes up. More efficient labor means less people benefit from gains in economic output. Welp, "You Can’t Feed a Family With G.D.P.":
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Will Portland Always Be a Retirement Community for the Young?"
Other Links: 1. "Field Of Dreams Portland."
2. "We Got More Educated, We Are Better Off... Right? An Analysis of Regional Conversion of Bachelors Degree Attainment into Positive Labor Market Outcomes."
Postscript: In reaction to the subject article, Alan Berube (Brookings) tweeted, "Portland is 'overeducated and underemployed but GDP per head up 50% since 2001? Doesn't add up." Consider manufacturing. employment goes down while production goes up. More efficient labor means less people benefit from gains in economic output. Welp, "You Can’t Feed a Family With G.D.P.":
Percent change indexed to 1993 level
%
40
30
20
10
0
Per Capita G.D.P.
Median household income
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2013
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
No Innovation Without Migration: The Harlem Renaissance
The Harlem Renaissance had little to with Harlem the place, at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "In Whose Garden Did the Harlem Renaissance Grow?"
Other Links: 1. "The Southern Diaspora: How the Great Migrations of Black and White Southerners Transformed America."
Postscript: All will tell the same story, of migration:
Wherever the migrants ended up, a great music scene flourished. No innovation without migration.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "In Whose Garden Did the Harlem Renaissance Grow?"
Other Links: 1. "The Southern Diaspora: How the Great Migrations of Black and White Southerners Transformed America."
Postscript: All will tell the same story, of migration:
Alphabetically we can list a hundred names of blues and jazz greats from Perry Anderson to Muddy Waters and all will tell the same story: grew up in the South, honed their skills in the bordellos or clubs of a southern city, went on to fame, if rarely fortune, in one of the music capitals of the North or West.
Wherever the migrants ended up, a great music scene flourished. No innovation without migration.
Monday, September 15, 2014
No Innovation Without Migration: Do Places Make People?
People make places innovative, not places make people innovative at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography
Subject Article: "Scientific ties that bind?"
Other Links: 1. "Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities."
2. "Turning Buffalo from a Rust Belt City into a Start-up City."
Postscript: I'm spending a lot of time exploring theories about innovation geography because I'm trying to understand how universities can spur regional economic redevelopment. I hypothesize that migration is missing from the policy analysis and discussion. Could migration be driving Rust Belt urban redevelopment?
Theme: Innovation geography
Subject Article: "Scientific ties that bind?"
Other Links: 1. "Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities."
2. "Turning Buffalo from a Rust Belt City into a Start-up City."
Postscript: I'm spending a lot of time exploring theories about innovation geography because I'm trying to understand how universities can spur regional economic redevelopment. I hypothesize that migration is missing from the policy analysis and discussion. Could migration be driving Rust Belt urban redevelopment?
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
No Innovation Without Migration: ‘Most Migrants Only Proceed a Short Distance, and Toward Centers of Absorption’
Looks like agglomeration, but short distance migration drives innovation at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography
Subject Article: "Job Hopping, Information Technology Spillovers, and Productivity Growth."
Other Links: 1. "Ernest George Ravenstein: The Laws of Migration, 1885."
2. "Local and Global Networks of Immigrant Professionals in Silicon Valley."
3. "No Innovation Without Migration."
4. "Triumph of the Entrepreneurial City."
5. "No Innovation Without Migration: Breaking Convention."
6. "Silicon Valley fights order to pay bigger settlement in hiring case."
7. "Your Knowledge Is Nothing If No One Else Knows You Know It."
Postscript: The introduction of the subject article makes the point better than the passage I quoted in the blog post:
Mind you, this forthcoming publication is dated January 2013. So we forge ahead with innovation districts regardless of how little empirical research has been done on the matter. Instead, we give the benefit of the doubt to theorists such as Jane Jacobs. That's a lousy foundation for policy and wholly ignorant of legitimate competing explanations with actual empirical analysis.
Theme: Innovation geography
Subject Article: "Job Hopping, Information Technology Spillovers, and Productivity Growth."
Other Links: 1. "Ernest George Ravenstein: The Laws of Migration, 1885."
2. "Local and Global Networks of Immigrant Professionals in Silicon Valley."
3. "No Innovation Without Migration."
4. "Triumph of the Entrepreneurial City."
5. "No Innovation Without Migration: Breaking Convention."
6. "Silicon Valley fights order to pay bigger settlement in hiring case."
7. "Your Knowledge Is Nothing If No One Else Knows You Know It."
Postscript: The introduction of the subject article makes the point better than the passage I quoted in the blog post:
Because the mobility of these skilled technical workers tends to be local, geographic location may play a particularly important role in determining access to the specialized skills and know-how required for the installation of these new technologies, and may partly explain why firms locate in high-tech clusters despite facing higher factor costs for other inputs, such as land and labor (Saxenian, 1996). The primary goal of this study is to test the hypothesis that firms benefit from the IT investments of other firms through the skill content of the IT labor pool because the flow of specialized technical know-how among organizations facilitates the implementation of new IT innovations. Although a substantial literature has focused on estimating the impact of R&D spillovers, there has been little empirical work on IT spillovers, and no work on IT spillovers generated through the IT labor pool.
Mind you, this forthcoming publication is dated January 2013. So we forge ahead with innovation districts regardless of how little empirical research has been done on the matter. Instead, we give the benefit of the doubt to theorists such as Jane Jacobs. That's a lousy foundation for policy and wholly ignorant of legitimate competing explanations with actual empirical analysis.
Wednesday, September 03, 2014
No Innovation Without Migration: Breaking Convention
Michael Porter's cluster theory is modern-day snake oil at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Job Hopping: Driver of Regional Tech Growth?"
Other Links: 1. "No Innovation Without Migration."
2. "Industrial Organization Continued. The Concentration of Specialized Industries in Particular Localities."
3. "Clusters and the New Economics of Competition."
4. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
5. "Chile teaches the world a lesson about innovation."
6. "Job Hopping, Information Technology Spillovers, and Productivity Growth."
Postscript: Speaking of modern-day snake oil:
To be fair, Florida might be right about that. But we don't know for sure if he is. From the evidence I've weighed, I think he's wrong. Regardless, that's a big bet by New York City given the flimsy evidence in support of such an approach to spurring innovation.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Job Hopping: Driver of Regional Tech Growth?"
Other Links: 1. "No Innovation Without Migration."
2. "Industrial Organization Continued. The Concentration of Specialized Industries in Particular Localities."
3. "Clusters and the New Economics of Competition."
4. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
5. "Chile teaches the world a lesson about innovation."
6. "Job Hopping, Information Technology Spillovers, and Productivity Growth."
Postscript: Speaking of modern-day snake oil:
"The motor force of economic development is exactly what Jane Jacobs told us it was. It was the clustering of diverse groups of people in urban centers," [Richard Florida] said.
To be fair, Florida might be right about that. But we don't know for sure if he is. From the evidence I've weighed, I think he's wrong. Regardless, that's a big bet by New York City given the flimsy evidence in support of such an approach to spurring innovation.
Tuesday, September 02, 2014
No Innovation Without Migration
It's migration, stupid, at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Sure it's Pseudoscience if You Don't Read It Right: Jacobs, Knowledge, and Urban Growth."
Other Links: 1. "Exodus to the burbs: why diehard downtowners are giving up on the city."
2. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
3. "Poverty and Geography: The Myth of Racial Segregation."
4. "How Migration Makes the World Brainier."
Postscript: The more I spar with others over policy, the more I appreciate doctoral training. Generally, most people master one school of thought and go from there. In a quest for a Ph.D., one must master the debate between schools of thought. Debates I've had over housing affordability illustrate this. There's the Edward Glaeser school (rational research) and there's the Not Edward Glaeser school (irrational ranting). Within the Edward Glaeser school, we have debates over the quality of the models and how well they measure empirical reality. That's what you see when you read the literature review section of the peer reviewed academic publication. That's because the stated aspiration of such research is very limited in scope. Can we prove that land-use restrictions drive up real estate prices? That's a very modest goal that gets way overstated in the realm of policy. Establishing the connection between land-use restrictions and real estate prices isn't, in and of itself, a compelling reason to upzone an urban area and increase residential (or commercial) density. We have competing schools of thought that actually evaluate the efficacy of policies designed to make real estate more affordable. First step in policy evaluation: identify the controversy and each side's supporting research. There isn't a debate about whether or not deregulation can drive down housing costs.
Theme: Innovation geography.
Subject Article: "Sure it's Pseudoscience if You Don't Read It Right: Jacobs, Knowledge, and Urban Growth."
Other Links: 1. "Exodus to the burbs: why diehard downtowners are giving up on the city."
2. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
3. "Poverty and Geography: The Myth of Racial Segregation."
4. "How Migration Makes the World Brainier."
Postscript: The more I spar with others over policy, the more I appreciate doctoral training. Generally, most people master one school of thought and go from there. In a quest for a Ph.D., one must master the debate between schools of thought. Debates I've had over housing affordability illustrate this. There's the Edward Glaeser school (rational research) and there's the Not Edward Glaeser school (irrational ranting). Within the Edward Glaeser school, we have debates over the quality of the models and how well they measure empirical reality. That's what you see when you read the literature review section of the peer reviewed academic publication. That's because the stated aspiration of such research is very limited in scope. Can we prove that land-use restrictions drive up real estate prices? That's a very modest goal that gets way overstated in the realm of policy. Establishing the connection between land-use restrictions and real estate prices isn't, in and of itself, a compelling reason to upzone an urban area and increase residential (or commercial) density. We have competing schools of thought that actually evaluate the efficacy of policies designed to make real estate more affordable. First step in policy evaluation: identify the controversy and each side's supporting research. There isn't a debate about whether or not deregulation can drive down housing costs.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Poverty and Geography: The Myth of Racial Segregation
Migration trumps race and place at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Geography of income inequality.
Subject Article: "Return Migration and Geography of Innovation in MNEs: A Natural Experiment of On-the-Job Learning of Knowledge Production by Local Workers Reporting to Return Migrants."
Other Links: 1. "Wrong Way Nation."
2. "Graduate migration to cities displaces less well-educated."
3. "Density Boondoggles: Innovation Districts."
4. "Europe's brain drain in action: Incredible animation shows great cities emerging over the centuries as intellectuals and artists move across the world."
5. "What Can Hurricanes Teach Us About Socioeconomic Mobility?"
6. "People Develop, Not Places."
Postscript: Much of economic and community development practice takes conventional urban economic theory as a given. I was in that camp when I started blogging back in 2006. All of that changed when I read Robert Guest's book, "Borderless Economics: Chinese Sea Turtles, Indian Fridges, and the New Fruits of Global Capitalism." I can't put the genie back in the bottle. The problem with this line of thinking is that it undermines the rationale for a lot of redevelopment projects currently en vogue. It undermines the rationale for efforts to fight persistent poverty. I find myself embroiled in existential debates instead of a friendly exchange of constructive criticism. Migration is economic development. People develop, not places.
Theme: Geography of income inequality.
Subject Article: "Return Migration and Geography of Innovation in MNEs: A Natural Experiment of On-the-Job Learning of Knowledge Production by Local Workers Reporting to Return Migrants."
Other Links: 1. "Wrong Way Nation."
2. "Graduate migration to cities displaces less well-educated."
3. "Density Boondoggles: Innovation Districts."
4. "Europe's brain drain in action: Incredible animation shows great cities emerging over the centuries as intellectuals and artists move across the world."
5. "What Can Hurricanes Teach Us About Socioeconomic Mobility?"
6. "People Develop, Not Places."
Postscript: Much of economic and community development practice takes conventional urban economic theory as a given. I was in that camp when I started blogging back in 2006. All of that changed when I read Robert Guest's book, "Borderless Economics: Chinese Sea Turtles, Indian Fridges, and the New Fruits of Global Capitalism." I can't put the genie back in the bottle. The problem with this line of thinking is that it undermines the rationale for a lot of redevelopment projects currently en vogue. It undermines the rationale for efforts to fight persistent poverty. I find myself embroiled in existential debates instead of a friendly exchange of constructive criticism. Migration is economic development. People develop, not places.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
The Politics of Anti-NIMBYism and Addressing Housing Affordability
Demography blunders by economists Paul Krugman and Edward Glaeser at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Demographic myths.
Subject Article: "Wrong Way Nation."
Other Links: 1. "In Houston, America's Diverse Future Has Already Arrived."
2. "Houston rents increasing at the fastest pace on record, recent data shows."
3. "Texas population increase leads U.S. in latest estimates."
4. "Build big, Bill: Shred red tape and unleash the private sector to produce affordable housing, as New York City once did."
5. "How to Slow Soaring Home Prices: Hong Kong and Singapore's Success."
6. "The Affordable Housing Shortage: Considering the Problem, Causes and Solutions."
7. "Why a Slowdown in Housing Prices Is Great News."
8. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
Postscript: It's the birth rate, stupid.
Theme: Demographic myths.
Subject Article: "Wrong Way Nation."
Other Links: 1. "In Houston, America's Diverse Future Has Already Arrived."
2. "Houston rents increasing at the fastest pace on record, recent data shows."
3. "Texas population increase leads U.S. in latest estimates."
4. "Build big, Bill: Shred red tape and unleash the private sector to produce affordable housing, as New York City once did."
5. "How to Slow Soaring Home Prices: Hong Kong and Singapore's Success."
6. "The Affordable Housing Shortage: Considering the Problem, Causes and Solutions."
7. "Why a Slowdown in Housing Prices Is Great News."
8. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
Postscript: It's the birth rate, stupid.
Monday, August 25, 2014
Concluding Remarks About Housing Affordability and Supply Restricitions
Forget supply issues. The wages are too damn low at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Labor markets and housing affordability.
Subject Article: "The Affordable Housing Shortage: Considering the Problem, Causes and Solutions."
Other Links: 1. "Why Is the Rent Too Damn High in New York? Don’t Blame Housing Supply."
2. "Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip."
3. "Zoning and Market Pricing of Housing."
4. "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis: Banking and Policy Working Paper 02-2."
Postscript: All roads take me back to the exceptional real estate demand case of Vancouver:
I rarely encounter a description of the tension between residents and businesses over dear urban land. Residents have to work somewhere in order to pay rent. In terms of housing affordability, the Minneapolis Fed study concludes that income (i.e. demand) matters more than supply restrictions. The considerable time I've spent studying this issue, that conclusion makes sense, in a fundamental supply-demand kind of way. To date, everyone who has taken issue with my position argues a point I have conceded. No one has taken aim at the demand side of the equation and the work of scholars such as David Ley (see above article about Vancouver's real estate market). Yes, less restrictive zoning makes land and homes less expensive. That's not a counter-argument to the many posts I've written on the subject.
Theme: Labor markets and housing affordability.
Subject Article: "The Affordable Housing Shortage: Considering the Problem, Causes and Solutions."
Other Links: 1. "Why Is the Rent Too Damn High in New York? Don’t Blame Housing Supply."
2. "Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip."
3. "Zoning and Market Pricing of Housing."
4. "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis: Banking and Policy Working Paper 02-2."
Postscript: All roads take me back to the exceptional real estate demand case of Vancouver:
At the same time, there's a vein of thought that Vancouver's recent focus on rezoning land to provide places to live-especially a downtown condo forest that has become the city's defining feature-has left it with a dearth of office buildings and factory sites where all those new residents might actually be able to find work.
I rarely encounter a description of the tension between residents and businesses over dear urban land. Residents have to work somewhere in order to pay rent. In terms of housing affordability, the Minneapolis Fed study concludes that income (i.e. demand) matters more than supply restrictions. The considerable time I've spent studying this issue, that conclusion makes sense, in a fundamental supply-demand kind of way. To date, everyone who has taken issue with my position argues a point I have conceded. No one has taken aim at the demand side of the equation and the work of scholars such as David Ley (see above article about Vancouver's real estate market). Yes, less restrictive zoning makes land and homes less expensive. That's not a counter-argument to the many posts I've written on the subject.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Why Is the Rent Too Damn High in New York? Don’t Blame Housing Supply
Pulling the housing affordability debate out of the theoretical clouds at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Housing affordability geography.
Subject Article: "Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip."
Other Links: 1. "Fleeing New York and San Francisco for ‘Cleveland’."
2. "Housing Affordability and Supply Side Economics."
3. "Demographics: 1; Gentrification Hysteria: 0."
4. "Gentrification: white people following white people."
5. "Where Have All of New York City’s Small Builders Gone?."
6. "Affordable Housing: Geography of Supply and Demand."
7. "Superstar Neighborhoods and the Concentration of Wealth."
8. "Turning Real Estate Market Fundamentals on Their Head."
9. "Superstar Cities."
Postscript: One of the conclusions from the Cleveland Fed analysis of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) inflation, "High vacancy rates do not appear to slow OER inflation down appreciably". That's not a ringing endorsement for increasing housing supply in order to make rents more affordable. Theoretically, increasing supply makes sense. Practically, it may not work. The Fed's analysis is hardly definitive. It still beats the unfounded policy suggestions coming from supply-side ideologues.
Theme: Housing affordability geography.
Subject Article: "Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip."
Other Links: 1. "Fleeing New York and San Francisco for ‘Cleveland’."
2. "Housing Affordability and Supply Side Economics."
3. "Demographics: 1; Gentrification Hysteria: 0."
4. "Gentrification: white people following white people."
5. "Where Have All of New York City’s Small Builders Gone?."
6. "Affordable Housing: Geography of Supply and Demand."
7. "Superstar Neighborhoods and the Concentration of Wealth."
8. "Turning Real Estate Market Fundamentals on Their Head."
9. "Superstar Cities."
Postscript: One of the conclusions from the Cleveland Fed analysis of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) inflation, "High vacancy rates do not appear to slow OER inflation down appreciably". That's not a ringing endorsement for increasing housing supply in order to make rents more affordable. Theoretically, increasing supply makes sense. Practically, it may not work. The Fed's analysis is hardly definitive. It still beats the unfounded policy suggestions coming from supply-side ideologues.
Thursday, August 07, 2014
Housing Affordability and Supply Side Economics
Dr. Doom weighs in on the debate about housing supply versus demand at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Housing affordability geography.
Subject Article: "San Pedro project illustrates a cause of limited housing affordability."
Other Links: 1. "Fleeing New York and San Francisco for ‘Cleveland’."
2. "Supply Side Economics: Do Tax Rate Cuts Increase Growth and Revenues and Reduce Budget Deficits ? Or Is It Voodoo Economics All Over Again?"
3. "Nouriel Roubini: Professor of Economics and International Business Stern School of Business, New York University."
Postscript: Supply-side economics (e.g. Laffer curve) make intuitive sense, thus appealing to politicians who are pursuing some other agenda. Theoretically, everything is a go. Practically, when academic scrutiny is applied to practice, the suggested benefits disappear. The journey from abstraction to on-the-ground change is a perilous one. The main disconnect I see is taking Glaeser's work (which establishes a link between supply restrictions and housing prices) and assuming that the practice of upzoning (one of many supply-side avenues) will deliver affordable housing. Dr. Doom's cautionary tale teaches us to beware of such claims "about the magnitude of these effects". Glaeser is today's Laffer.
Theme: Housing affordability geography.
Subject Article: "San Pedro project illustrates a cause of limited housing affordability."
Other Links: 1. "Fleeing New York and San Francisco for ‘Cleveland’."
2. "Supply Side Economics: Do Tax Rate Cuts Increase Growth and Revenues and Reduce Budget Deficits ? Or Is It Voodoo Economics All Over Again?"
3. "Nouriel Roubini: Professor of Economics and International Business Stern School of Business, New York University."
Postscript: Supply-side economics (e.g. Laffer curve) make intuitive sense, thus appealing to politicians who are pursuing some other agenda. Theoretically, everything is a go. Practically, when academic scrutiny is applied to practice, the suggested benefits disappear. The journey from abstraction to on-the-ground change is a perilous one. The main disconnect I see is taking Glaeser's work (which establishes a link between supply restrictions and housing prices) and assuming that the practice of upzoning (one of many supply-side avenues) will deliver affordable housing. Dr. Doom's cautionary tale teaches us to beware of such claims "about the magnitude of these effects". Glaeser is today's Laffer.
Wednesday, August 06, 2014
Fleeing New York and San Francisco for ‘Cleveland’
Once again tackling housing supply versus demand at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Affordable Housing Draws Middle Class to Inland Cities."
Other Links: 1. "Exotic Romancing at Tennessee Williams Fest."
2. "Urban Geopolitics: Why Chicago Is Dying."
3. "The Way the Modern World Works: World Hegemony to World Impasse."
4. "And the Global City shatters into a million pieces. 'Affordable Housing Draws Middle Class to Inland Cities'"
5. "When Social Scientists Fail Demography."
6. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
7. "Expat Cuts Hit Hong Kong Luxury Rentals: Market Struggles as Multinationals Trim Packages for Relocated Employees."
Postscript: More from Other Link #7:
The above quoted passage accomplishes two things. First, putting aside the tax intended to cool the real estate market, the demand slack has a dramatic impact on prices. Second, the overall real estate market is segmented, providing a more nuanced picture of housing affordability in Hong Kong. In my next post, I tackle the disaggregation of housing markets.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Affordable Housing Draws Middle Class to Inland Cities."
Other Links: 1. "Exotic Romancing at Tennessee Williams Fest."
2. "Urban Geopolitics: Why Chicago Is Dying."
3. "The Way the Modern World Works: World Hegemony to World Impasse."
4. "And the Global City shatters into a million pieces. 'Affordable Housing Draws Middle Class to Inland Cities'"
5. "When Social Scientists Fail Demography."
6. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
7. "Expat Cuts Hit Hong Kong Luxury Rentals: Market Struggles as Multinationals Trim Packages for Relocated Employees."
Postscript: More from Other Link #7:
The normal summertime surge in demand for high-end apartments in Hong Kong's top neighborhoods was weak again this year as companies changed the way they pay for housing for their expatriate employees and the finance sector continued to struggle.
A shift away from banking and toward retail and other sectors, among companies relocating staff, has pushed down demand. Hong Kong's efforts to cool its housing sector have weighed on the market as well.
Expatriate families relocating to Hong Kong, the main prospective tenants for high-end leases above 80,000 Hong Kong dollars (US$10,300) a month, usually move in the summer months before the school year begins. The start of the third quarter is the "traditional busy time" in the high-end leasing market, according to Edina Wong, senior director of residential leasing at Savills, a real-estate consultancy company. This year, "there's been a minor bump, but not as big as previous years'."
It hasn't been nearly enough to make up for the longer trend: a decline in luxury rental demand by 30% to 40% over the past two years, according to Ms. Wong. "It's a huge drop," she said. "The higher the rental, the quieter it is."
The above quoted passage accomplishes two things. First, putting aside the tax intended to cool the real estate market, the demand slack has a dramatic impact on prices. Second, the overall real estate market is segmented, providing a more nuanced picture of housing affordability in Hong Kong. In my next post, I tackle the disaggregation of housing markets.
Monday, August 04, 2014
When Social Scientists Fail Demography
Increasingly skeptical of Edward Glaeser's conclusions at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Rust Belt shame.
Subject Article: "The appeal of unhappy cities."
Other Links: 1. "Confusing Population Change With Migration."
2. "Unhappy Cities."
3. "That New York City Magic."
4. "A Brain Drain or an Insufficient Brain Gain?"
Postscript: Just a hunch, but I suspect Rust Belt shame colors most of Edward Glaeser's research.
Theme: Rust Belt shame.
Subject Article: "The appeal of unhappy cities."
Other Links: 1. "Confusing Population Change With Migration."
2. "Unhappy Cities."
3. "That New York City Magic."
4. "A Brain Drain or an Insufficient Brain Gain?"
Postscript: Just a hunch, but I suspect Rust Belt shame colors most of Edward Glaeser's research.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
LeBron James Migration: Big Chef Seeking Small Pond
The return of LeBron James to his hometown doesn't make him a pioneer at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Return migration and economic development.
Subject Article: "Chefs Move Beyond New York."
Other Links: 1. "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
2. "Irrational Choice Theory: The LeBron James Migration From Miami to Cleveland."
3. "Who says Cleveland needs saving?"
4. "Fleeing Los Angeles for Harrisburg."
5. "Ironic Migration: Invisible Inflows."
6. "Think people, not place in rural migration."
7. "Dispatches from the Field: Return Migration in Mexico."
Postscript: LeBron James coming home to Northeast Ohio might catalyze more return migration. If others start looking into return migration, I think they will find a well-established trend that defines the current economic epoch. The psychogeographic pivot in Buffalo:
Emphasis added. Residents of Rust Belt cities are finally noticing return migrants.
Theme: Return migration and economic development.
Subject Article: "Chefs Move Beyond New York."
Other Links: 1. "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
2. "Irrational Choice Theory: The LeBron James Migration From Miami to Cleveland."
3. "Who says Cleveland needs saving?"
4. "Fleeing Los Angeles for Harrisburg."
5. "Ironic Migration: Invisible Inflows."
6. "Think people, not place in rural migration."
7. "Dispatches from the Field: Return Migration in Mexico."
Postscript: LeBron James coming home to Northeast Ohio might catalyze more return migration. If others start looking into return migration, I think they will find a well-established trend that defines the current economic epoch. The psychogeographic pivot in Buffalo:
Signs of a new Buffalo became obvious in no time: cranes all around town and local enthusiasm beyond typical civic pride. From its industrial heyday in the early 1900s, Buffalo sank to downtrodden at best. Its population is about half what it was in the 1950s. But today, residents are excited about the makeover underway, and everyone seems to know college graduates moving back to the city, or people coming here for jobs.
Emphasis added. Residents of Rust Belt cities are finally noticing return migrants.
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Geographic Scale and Talent Migration: Washington, D.C.’s New Silver Line
Amenities don't drive migrants across the country at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: You go where you know, knowledge and migration.
Subject Article: "The Silver Line is a new weapon in the local war for talent."
Other Links: 1. "Wisconsin's brain drain and transportation priorities."
2. "Not About LeBron James: Economic Restructuring in Cleveland."
Postscript: I'm working through some ideas about the relationship between geographic scale, labor markets, and migration. My goal is to figure out how to leverage migration patterns for economic development in Northeast Ohio. A numbers of subsequent posts will serve as pieces to the overall puzzle that I will eventually put together in a comprehensive post.
Theme: You go where you know, knowledge and migration.
Subject Article: "The Silver Line is a new weapon in the local war for talent."
Other Links: 1. "Wisconsin's brain drain and transportation priorities."
2. "Not About LeBron James: Economic Restructuring in Cleveland."
Postscript: I'm working through some ideas about the relationship between geographic scale, labor markets, and migration. My goal is to figure out how to leverage migration patterns for economic development in Northeast Ohio. A numbers of subsequent posts will serve as pieces to the overall puzzle that I will eventually put together in a comprehensive post.
Sunday, July 27, 2014
Confusing Population Change With Migration
Population growth and net outmigration happening in the same metro, at the same time at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Do Millennials Prefer Houston and San Antonio to Dallas and Austin?"
Other Links: 1. "10 Surprisingly Hot Markets for Millennials."
2. "How Many People Left Pittsburgh During the 1980s?"
3. "As Deaths Outpace Births, Cities Adjust."
Postscript: As national (and international) demographics have changed, perceptions have failed to keep pace. The outdated view holds that population change is primarily a function of domestic migration. More and more places around the world post birth rates unable to replace those who die. As women become more educated, families get smaller. Birth rates of immigrants glossed over the transformation in the United States. But even foreign born populations are beginning to converge demographically. Journalists need to get with the times.
Theme: Ironic demography.
Subject Article: "Do Millennials Prefer Houston and San Antonio to Dallas and Austin?"
Other Links: 1. "10 Surprisingly Hot Markets for Millennials."
2. "How Many People Left Pittsburgh During the 1980s?"
3. "As Deaths Outpace Births, Cities Adjust."
Postscript: As national (and international) demographics have changed, perceptions have failed to keep pace. The outdated view holds that population change is primarily a function of domestic migration. More and more places around the world post birth rates unable to replace those who die. As women become more educated, families get smaller. Birth rates of immigrants glossed over the transformation in the United States. But even foreign born populations are beginning to converge demographically. Journalists need to get with the times.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Battle of the Public Intellectuals: Edward Glaeser vs. Richard Florida
The rent is too damn high in free-building Houston at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Ironic demographics.
Subject Article: "Houston, New York Has a Problem: The southern city welcomes the middle class; heavily regulated and expensive Gotham drives it away."
Other Links: 1. "Cost of Living Is Really All About Housing: Places where the rent really is too damn high."
2. "Map: Cost of Rent."
3. "Not So Much ‘New York Poor’ as ‘Pittsburgh Rich.’"
Postscript: "California Screaming: The tech industry made the Bay Area rich. Why do so many residents hate it?":
There are problems on both sides of the housing market, supply and demand. But demand is the much bigger issue. More from the above article:
Ironically, "supply-side urbanists" fail to see the big picture.
Theme: Ironic demographics.
Subject Article: "Houston, New York Has a Problem: The southern city welcomes the middle class; heavily regulated and expensive Gotham drives it away."
Other Links: 1. "Cost of Living Is Really All About Housing: Places where the rent really is too damn high."
2. "Map: Cost of Rent."
3. "Not So Much ‘New York Poor’ as ‘Pittsburgh Rich.’"
Postscript: "California Screaming: The tech industry made the Bay Area rich. Why do so many residents hate it?":
Conway, an unofficial adviser, and a generous donor, to San Francisco’s mayor, Edwin M. Lee, agrees that something is going wrong in the city’s socioeconomics. But the solution, he thinks, is to bring more of Silicon Valley north. “In ten years, I would hope that eighty-five per cent of tech workers who live in San Francisco work in San Francisco,” he said. “For every tech job, there’s four support jobs, and we need to make sure those people live inside the city limits as well.”
Tech’s shift to the city is already under way. Last August, Yahoo caused a stir when it moved into the San Francisco Chronicle building; Square, the credit-card-processing company founded by Jack Dorsey, was already there, and Twitter’s offices are nearby. Conway supports the Mayor’s new “seven-point housing plan,” which calls for thirty thousand low-, moderate-, and middle-income homes. The developments are planned largely for former industrial sites like Candlestick and Bayview-Hunters Points—a wharf neighborhood that has had limited appeal; up to half of the city’s homicides take place there, and it adjoins a shipyard that’s still being cleansed of toxic and radioactive waste. In Conway’s dream, lower- and middle-income families (defined as four-person households earning $145,650 or less) will have a secure place in such housing, while market-rate homes will continue to attract job-creating tech workers.
In some ways, this is a puzzling solution to the real-estate crisis. Wouldn’t moving more tech companies into the city drive prices even higher? Conway thought that maybe techies could be induced to put down payments on the homes of their poorer employees. “It’s not building anything, but it’s taking qualified people who can afford housing but not the down payment,” he said. “And that’s probably the least costly.” The effort would have to be conducted in an ad-hoc way in order to get it done—a good-hearted C.E.O. here and there stepping up and launching a project.
Yet there’s a broader difficulty in solving San Francisco’s problems through tech growth: the industry, which derives its competitive edge from efficiency, appears to be better at capital accumulation than at job creation. This is one reason, some economists think, that unemployment has remained more or less flat since 2000, even as productivity has continued to increase. An old-line company like Citigroup has some two hundred and fifty thousand employees; Facebook, which is worth more, employs about six thousand, and most tech startups are far smaller. (When WhatsApp was acquired by Facebook, for nineteen billion dollars, it had fewer than a hundred employees.) Tech has brought good jobs to San Francisco, but almost any other industry, charged with similar growth, would have brought many more.
This has been no secret to those in power. Nine years ago, Ted Egan, who is now San Francisco’s chief economist, was hired by the Mayor’s Office to plot a long-term economic path for the city. He recommended four measures that would mitigate rising inequality. The city should try to diversify its tech growth away from Internet firms to include industries like biotech, which supplies large numbers of both specialist and nonspecialist jobs. It should work on attracting big companies, which offer residents a range of jobs, rather than only small startups, which rest on the shoulders of a few founders. It should promote tourism more creatively, and focus more intensely on sustaining its blue-collar industries. Egan submitted his report. City Hall appeared to love it. Then, he says, it was filed away.
There are problems on both sides of the housing market, supply and demand. But demand is the much bigger issue. More from the above article:
“If you’re in a region that is adding jobs, you need parts of that region to be pro-growth to allow the housing supply to increase commensurate with the jobs,” Gabriel Metcalf, the executive director of SPUR, a pro-growth urban-policy think tank, told me. Building advocates like Yarne and Metcalf, who are friends, blame San Francisco’s public process for slowing down construction and driving up housing prices. John Rahaim, the Planning Department’s director, encourages such growth but shares the widespread opinion that it would take a huge amount of building—some people say around a hundred thousand new units, over a period of years—to shift San Francisco’s supply-demand curve.
Adding homes at the high end of the market could also entice more rich suburbanites into town. Supply-side urbanists like Metcalf and Yarne solve the problem by zooming out on the map. It’s O.K. if San Francisco vacuums in the most affluent elements in the region, they say, provided that greater San Francisco doesn’t remain a suburban hinterland. Yarne is fond of pointing out that the BART commute from downtown Oakland to downtown San Francisco is a lot faster than most streetcar commutes within San Francisco. Let’s have more of that, he says, and turn the Bay Area as a whole into a clean, efficient metropolis.
Ironically, "supply-side urbanists" fail to see the big picture.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Irrational Choice Theory: The LeBron James Migration From Miami to Cleveland
LeBron James migration as economic development at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Return migration.
Subject Article: "God Loves Cleveland: Why LeBron James — unparalleled NBA genius, heir to Michael (and Larry and Magic) — went home."
Other Links: 1. "Miami Is Dying."
2. "Quality of Place and Migration."
3. "In Cleveland, Income Growth Without Population Growth."
4. "Unhappy Cities."
5. "LeBron: I'm coming back to Cleveland."
6. "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
7. "That New York City Magic."
8. "Let the People Go: The Problem With Strict Migration Limits."
9. "LeBron's Location Decision."
10. "Kool-Aid Man (Family Guy)."
Postscript: A few months back, I read about a critique of the push-pull model for migration theory. At first, it was unsettling. Push-pull is the crux of rational choice. One place is better (pull) than another (push). Long ago, I decided the push factor was nonsense. Migration is aspirational, all pull. However, push-pull assumes that places develop and then people. I do believe, I think that migration is economic development. Still, I struggled to reconcile that with the critique of push-pull. Reconciliation came in the form of realizing that migration had a bad image. Relocation is a negative outcome, not a positive one. If someone moves, then something must be wrong. In both LeBron James migrations, everything was right. What was wrong was (is) how we perceive his journey.
Theme: Return migration.
Subject Article: "God Loves Cleveland: Why LeBron James — unparalleled NBA genius, heir to Michael (and Larry and Magic) — went home."
Other Links: 1. "Miami Is Dying."
2. "Quality of Place and Migration."
3. "In Cleveland, Income Growth Without Population Growth."
4. "Unhappy Cities."
5. "LeBron: I'm coming back to Cleveland."
6. "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
7. "That New York City Magic."
8. "Let the People Go: The Problem With Strict Migration Limits."
9. "LeBron's Location Decision."
10. "Kool-Aid Man (Family Guy)."
Postscript: A few months back, I read about a critique of the push-pull model for migration theory. At first, it was unsettling. Push-pull is the crux of rational choice. One place is better (pull) than another (push). Long ago, I decided the push factor was nonsense. Migration is aspirational, all pull. However, push-pull assumes that places develop and then people. I do believe, I think that migration is economic development. Still, I struggled to reconcile that with the critique of push-pull. Reconciliation came in the form of realizing that migration had a bad image. Relocation is a negative outcome, not a positive one. If someone moves, then something must be wrong. In both LeBron James migrations, everything was right. What was wrong was (is) how we perceive his journey.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Not About LeBron James: Economic Restructuring in Cleveland
LeBron James moved back to Northeast Ohio because that's where the action is at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Legacy Economy and return migration.
Subject Article: "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
Other Links: 1. "The Center for Population Dynamics: Reports and Blogs."
2. "The LeBron James Story Has Always Been A Tale Of Two Cities."
3. "Is LeBron James Now The Most Powerful Person In Cleveland? No -- This Guy Is."
4. "Eds And Meds Economic Geography."
5. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
6. "This guy is nuts (end of story) ..."
7. "Jane Jacobs: Why Urban Planning’s Legendary Heroine is Famous for a Reason."
8. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
9. "Cleveland's healthcare jobs power shifting from hospitals to research labs."
10. "Captive Labor Markets and Migration."
Postscript: In Northeast Ohio:
I don't know how much of medical sector growth is of the diverging tradable sort. But those kind of jobs drive migration and are associated with brain gain (i.e. more people with college degrees moving into the region than leaving). Furthermore, tradable Innovation Economy jobs are converging. Cleveland didn't benefit much from "The New Geography of Jobs." But that world is getting less spiky by the day. Your choice: Cleveland rich, or San Francisco poor?"
Theme: Legacy Economy and return migration.
Subject Article: "Cleveland has been on the rebound even before LeBron James news."
Other Links: 1. "The Center for Population Dynamics: Reports and Blogs."
2. "The LeBron James Story Has Always Been A Tale Of Two Cities."
3. "Is LeBron James Now The Most Powerful Person In Cleveland? No -- This Guy Is."
4. "Eds And Meds Economic Geography."
5. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
6. "This guy is nuts (end of story) ..."
7. "Jane Jacobs: Why Urban Planning’s Legendary Heroine is Famous for a Reason."
8. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
9. "Cleveland's healthcare jobs power shifting from hospitals to research labs."
10. "Captive Labor Markets and Migration."
Postscript: In Northeast Ohio:
The study found that the medical sector has grown by 20 percent since the turn of the century, adding 177,000 jobs and offsetting losses in other industries. Momentum stalled during the recession but Moody's Economy.com projects the industry will add another 6,000 to 8,000 jobs over the next few years, Team NEO reports.
I don't know how much of medical sector growth is of the diverging tradable sort. But those kind of jobs drive migration and are associated with brain gain (i.e. more people with college degrees moving into the region than leaving). Furthermore, tradable Innovation Economy jobs are converging. Cleveland didn't benefit much from "The New Geography of Jobs." But that world is getting less spiky by the day. Your choice: Cleveland rich, or San Francisco poor?"
Friday, July 11, 2014
Affordable Housing: Geography of Supply and Demand
The geographic scale of supply and demand matters at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Bakken Oil Boom Brings Growing Pains to Small Montana Town: An influx of workers leaves housing scarce—and the jail full."
Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
2. "Why Foreign Money is Irrelevant to Increasing Density."
3. "Everyone's Moving to Seattle, and It's Stressing Out Sushi Lovers."
Postscript: A bit of demography and geography for Frederick County, Maryland:
I think this is a good example of how the geography of supply scales regionally. I live in this area and I can see the rapid (and ironic) shift of economic geography away from the urban core. Along those lines, read about how the future of urban density is in the suburbs.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Bakken Oil Boom Brings Growing Pains to Small Montana Town: An influx of workers leaves housing scarce—and the jail full."
Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
2. "Why Foreign Money is Irrelevant to Increasing Density."
3. "Everyone's Moving to Seattle, and It's Stressing Out Sushi Lovers."
Postscript: A bit of demography and geography for Frederick County, Maryland:
County planning director Jim Gugel said the area’s relatively low cost of living has historically attracted people.
“One thing that drives people to move to Frederick County and the outer (Washington) suburbs is the cost of housing,” he said.
It was business opportunities that brought Eagar to Frederick. He is a manager at XeoHealth, a health care technology company that aims to simplify claims. The business set up its U.S. headquarters in Frederick, he said, because of its strategic location near the I-270 technology corridor and airports.
I think this is a good example of how the geography of supply scales regionally. I live in this area and I can see the rapid (and ironic) shift of economic geography away from the urban core. Along those lines, read about how the future of urban density is in the suburbs.
Wednesday, July 09, 2014
The Geopolitics of Gentrification
Making geopolitical connections to gentrification in the United States at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Chinese Lead Way as Foreigners Step Up Purchases of U.S. Homes."
Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
Postscript: I'm interested to know if the EB-5 investment visa helped pave the way for non-visa related real estate investment. Betting geographer David Ley could tell me, "Transnational Networks of Business Immigrants Between East Asia and British Columbia."
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Chinese Lead Way as Foreigners Step Up Purchases of U.S. Homes."
Other Links: 1. "Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable."
Postscript: I'm interested to know if the EB-5 investment visa helped pave the way for non-visa related real estate investment. Betting geographer David Ley could tell me, "Transnational Networks of Business Immigrants Between East Asia and British Columbia."
Tuesday, July 08, 2014
Demographic Tale of the Tape: Vox vs. FiveThirtyEight
Matthew Yglesias fails demography at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Ironic demographics.
Subject Article: "Map: The 25 cities nobody wants to live in."
Other Links: 1. "Population Shifts Had Nothing to Do With Cantor’s Defeat."
2. "Vox is our next."
3. "Fastest-Shrinking U.S. Cities: Detroit and other Michigan cities continue to lose population."
Postscript: A journalist screwing up demographic analysis is nothing new. But I have to wonder if Yglesias' poor grasp of demography influences his understanding of the relationship between zoning regimes and housing affordability. Greater density makes a lot of sense with such a superficial look at population change.
Theme: Ironic demographics.
Subject Article: "Map: The 25 cities nobody wants to live in."
Other Links: 1. "Population Shifts Had Nothing to Do With Cantor’s Defeat."
2. "Vox is our next."
3. "Fastest-Shrinking U.S. Cities: Detroit and other Michigan cities continue to lose population."
Postscript: A journalist screwing up demographic analysis is nothing new. But I have to wonder if Yglesias' poor grasp of demography influences his understanding of the relationship between zoning regimes and housing affordability. Greater density makes a lot of sense with such a superficial look at population change.
Monday, July 07, 2014
Illusion of Local: Why Zoning for Greater Density Will Fail to Make Housing More Affordable
The real estate market isn't local anymore at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Why Vancouver housing is unaffordable and what to do about it."
Other Links: 1. "Gentrification Is in the Eye of the Beholder."
2. "Stash Pad."
3. "Gentrification of the City."
4. "New Globalism, New Urbanism: Gentrification as Global Urban Strategy."
5. "S.F. falls behind planning for growth."
6. "Apartment Rents Rise as Incomes Stagnate."
7. "More NYC—a Progressive Campaign for Upzoning New York."
8. "The quiet, massive rezoning of New York."
9. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
10. "Pity the bohemians and their high-rent woes."
Postscript: Save for the last two paragraphs of the article by Doug Saunders ("Pity the bohemians and their high-rent woes."), I thought I was reading a piece that would support David Ley's model of the Vancouver housing market. Instead, Saunders shoehorns in the conventional wisdom about greater density. As a geographer, the scale mismatch is obvious. But I'll take a few steps back. Should we expect local planning tools to deal effectively with international flows transforming the urban landscape? Does scale matter? Anyone familiar with urban planning theorists who discuss dealing with globalization?
Theme: Globalization and gentrification.
Subject Article: "Why Vancouver housing is unaffordable and what to do about it."
Other Links: 1. "Gentrification Is in the Eye of the Beholder."
2. "Stash Pad."
3. "Gentrification of the City."
4. "New Globalism, New Urbanism: Gentrification as Global Urban Strategy."
5. "S.F. falls behind planning for growth."
6. "Apartment Rents Rise as Incomes Stagnate."
7. "More NYC—a Progressive Campaign for Upzoning New York."
8. "The quiet, massive rezoning of New York."
9. "The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts."
10. "Pity the bohemians and their high-rent woes."
Postscript: Save for the last two paragraphs of the article by Doug Saunders ("Pity the bohemians and their high-rent woes."), I thought I was reading a piece that would support David Ley's model of the Vancouver housing market. Instead, Saunders shoehorns in the conventional wisdom about greater density. As a geographer, the scale mismatch is obvious. But I'll take a few steps back. Should we expect local planning tools to deal effectively with international flows transforming the urban landscape? Does scale matter? Anyone familiar with urban planning theorists who discuss dealing with globalization?
Wednesday, July 02, 2014
The Pseudoscience of Jane Jacobs and Innovation Districts
Debunking the Jane "Jacobs spillovers" at Pacific Standard magazine.
Theme: Geography of innovation.
Subject Article: "What Can a 'Science of Cities' Offer Planners?"
Other Links: 1. "The Case For Investing In California Businesses."
2. "Chile teaches the world a lesson about innovation."
3. "Keeping the Focus on People, Not Places, With Jim Russell."
4. "Job Hopping: Driver of Regional Tech Growth?
5. "Job Hopping, Information Technology Spillovers, and Productivity Growth."
Postscript: Intrinsically, cities aren't cauldrons of innovation. Cities draw people from a diverse set of places. Cities also provide more inter-firm labor mobility opportunities. Most migration covers a short distance. You go where you know. Thus the observation of a positive correlation between urban density and innovation/productivity. Right connection, wrong explanation.
Theme: Geography of innovation.
Subject Article: "What Can a 'Science of Cities' Offer Planners?"
Other Links: 1. "The Case For Investing In California Businesses."
2. "Chile teaches the world a lesson about innovation."
3. "Keeping the Focus on People, Not Places, With Jim Russell."
4. "Job Hopping: Driver of Regional Tech Growth?
5. "Job Hopping, Information Technology Spillovers, and Productivity Growth."
Postscript: Intrinsically, cities aren't cauldrons of innovation. Cities draw people from a diverse set of places. Cities also provide more inter-firm labor mobility opportunities. Most migration covers a short distance. You go where you know. Thus the observation of a positive correlation between urban density and innovation/productivity. Right connection, wrong explanation.
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