Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Goodbye NYC, Hello Poughkeepsie

Dutchess County is enjoying a proximity dividend. The balance of the migration isn't so impressive. The quality (higher incomes) of newcomers is news. A substantial flow is coming from the Bronx:

The largest net inflows occurred with Westchester County at 252 households, followed by Putnam at 151 households. Migration with Ulster County resulted in a net loss of 42 households. Year-overyear, intraregional outflows increased 1.65 percent; inflows fell 4.58 percent. During the 2008-2009 migration period inflows into Dutchess County (806) from NYC exceeded outflows to NYC (578) by 228 households and $30.00 million in AGI. As is typical in the region, Bronx County accounted for the largest share of inflows from NYC into Dutchess County at 31.51 percent (135 households) followed by New York County (Manhattan) at 25.31 percent (45 households). Migration with New York County (Manhattan) produced the largest net inflow of AGI at $14.80 million. Year-overyear, total outflows fell 10.11 percent; inflows fell 3.00 percent.

Real estate refugees continue to abandon expensive urban cores for geographic arbitrage opportunities. The windfall is great for struggling cities such as Poughkeepsie and, as discussed here before, Newark. That's wonderful for those communities close enough to cash in.

You go where you know. The nearer is the more familiar. The same is true for places where you spent vacation or, more simply, your hometown. Intimate knowledge of a place mimics proximity. Return migration to Cleveland is sucking Brooklyn dry of talent. Artists are figuring out that you can get NYC at a fraction of the cost in a Rust Belt city. The migration to Poughkeepsie bodes well for the likes of Pittsburgh.

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