Friday, July 19, 2013

Fresno’s Detroit Problem

Turnaround for Rust Belt California is off the map at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Geographic stereotypes and migration.

Subject Article: "Commentary: Go Inland, Young Californians."

Other Links: 1. "The Trouble With Ann Arbor."
2. "Pittsburgh And Migration Mesofacts."
3. "The Cities with the Best and Worst Unemployment Rates."
4. "City Of Fresno Going Bankrupt?"
5. "Demographic Deception."
6. "Michael Bloomberg’s Zero-Sum Worldview."

Postscript: California's decline is oversold and sensational. The same goes for the rise of Texas. Bear or bull, perception matters and reinforces the trend line. California is on a downward slide. Texas is ascendant. Still, the demographics don't match the headlines:

“We think of Austin’s in-migration stream as coming to us exclusively from places like California when, in fact, most of it is indeed coming from other parts of the state,” City of Austin demographer Ryan Robinson told the Austin Post. “My sense has always been that Austin gets a lot of two-step migrants. First, they move from New York to Houston or California to Dallas; then realize that where they really want to be is in Austin.”

There's a lot churn within the Texas Triangle. Dallas seems to have the best national draw. Houston the best pull on foreign born talent. Concerning outmigration patterns, just this week I heard a shriek about brain drain from the University of Texas at Dallas. Texas is dying. As for Californication (exodus Golden State), that's be going on for decades. The California that was an aspirational geography is no more.


The Urbanophile said...

I think the Austin piece is pretty bogus. They aren't excluding intra-metro movements.

Jim Russell said...

I don't think it is bogus. However, the speculation about secondary migration rings true.

Texas migration patterns are much incestuous than the popular narrative will allow. That's what I saw when I did the San Antonio demographic analysis. As for Austin, not so tolerant. Go figure.