How Defining a Metropolitan Statistical Area Promotes Poverty

A metro only exists for those who can afford to commute.

Theme: Geography of poverty

Subject Article: "Mass. economy booms, but the effect is uneven: The town of Acton and the Boston neighborhood of Mattapan are only 30 miles apart, but one is booming while the other languishes in high unemployment and poverty."

Other Links: 1. "About Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas."

Postscript: As an amenity young adult urbanists adore, transit is divorced from employment. Considering "transit deserts" in Toronto:

To the authors of a new study out of the City Institute at York University, these facts expose “transit inequity” in Toronto: the people most dependent on transit, who pay a higher portion of their income to ride it, also get the worst service. The report, titled Switching Tracks, suggests ways the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area can achieve greater “transit justice.”

Among its main contentions is that, historically, major transit projects exacerbate social inequality. “The majority of infrastructure investments in the modern city have privileged the rich,” said Roger Keil, a co-author of the report. This is not only because wealthier citizens tend to wield more political clout, but because conventional planning wisdom dictates that major rapid transit lines should connect areas that are already thriving: dense residential zones, booming commercial areas, and transportation hubs.

Not only do transit projects help concentrate poverty, they are used to attract and retain millennials (e.g. Atlanta). Transit planners bear some responsibility for the growing inequality divide, as seen in the case of Boston. Jobs go unfilled in Acton while the unemployment line in Mattapan grows longer. Instead of tackling this issue, the question asked is "When Are You Getting Late-Night Subway Service?"

The Geography of Divergent Immigrant Fortunes

In Britain, Bangladeshis fare better than Pakistanis. The intensity of inbreeding homophily explains the difference.

Theme: Immigration and economic development

Subject Article: "Breaking out: In Britain, Bangladeshis have overtaken Pakistanis. Credit the poor job market when they arrived and the magical effect of London."

Other Links: 1. "Perception, Policy, and Migration."
2. "Geography of Isolation."
3. "Inbreeding Homophily."
4. "Migrant Networks and the Spread of Misinformation."

Postscript: From "Armenian and Azerbaijani Migrants in Turkey Both Want to Make Money":

Salomoni has also focused on the plight of Armenian and Azerbaijan migrants in Turkey and his latest paper on the issue is entitled “Just Beyond the Border: Azerbaijani and Armenian Migrants in Turkey.” ...

... One difference is that the bulk of Armenians are located in Istanbul, whereas Azerbaijanis are scattered throughout the country. Of course, there are Armenians in Antalya, Izmir and Ankara, but very few. On the other hand, while there are many Azerbaijanis in Istanbul, there are also many in Izmir and especially Igdir and Kars.

I'd be interested to learn if the Armenian migrants are doing better economically than the Azerbaijanis, which may bolster the argument The Economist is advancing (i.e. geography is destiny).

Concerning Upward Mobility, Geography Is Destiny

At Pacific Standard magazine, the ability to choose one's neighborhood determines the economic destiny of your children.

Theme: Geography of upward mobility.

Subject Article: "The Neighborhood Effect: Localities and Upward Mobility."

Postscript: Migration (i.e. geographic mobility) begets upward mobility:

“My interpretation of these results leads to a focus on pupil aspiration, ambition and engagement. There is nothing inherently different in the ability of pupils from different ethnic backgrounds, but the children of relatively recent immigrants typically have greater hopes and expectations of education, and are, on average, more likely to be engaged with their school work.

“This is not by chance of course. A key point about London is its attraction to migrants and those aspiring to a better life.”

The good professor's interpretation is backed up by this research on birthplace diversity.

What Talent Shortage? The Great American Brain Waste of Our Captive Labor Market

No talent shortage and no brain drain, only brain waste at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: War for talent.

Subject Article: "Women’s salaries dragged down by domestic demands."

Other Links: 1. "Purdue research: Lots of 'brain waste' among highly educated immigrants."

Postscript: Linking brain waste to my recent preoccupation with higher education demographics, Oregon State University making lemonade out of lemons:

Into Oregon State has a 12-person student care team that offers workshops and personal counseling on cultural issues that go far beyond the academic: dating etiquette, notions of personal space and privacy, driving and drinking laws, attitudes toward mental health, body language, and standards of interaction with peers, faculty members or even, if needed, the police.

The most prestigious American schools have no shortage of foreign applicants and have their pick of the best. But most colleges and universities are relatively unknown worldwide and lack the resources to do overseas recruiting. And while the supply of students abroad who want an American education is immense, the number who are actually prepared for it is much more limited.

A number of for-profit companies have stepped into that breach, offering recruitment services or college preparatory boot camps, but a handful offer something more ambitious, working with American colleges to create bridge programs for foreigners, a more common practice in Britain and Australia. Six years ago, there were no programs of that kind in the United States, but now at least 15 American universities have them, working with companies like Into and Study Group, both based in Britain; Navitas, an Australian company; and Kaplan Inc., with more scheduled to come on line.

Emphasis added. Essentially, there is a talent shortage of foreign born college students. Instead of blubbering to government about the lack of ready-to-work as corporations do, universities are assuming the risk of "training" in order to tap a larger available demographic. Stop whining about the shortage of talent and go about fix the problem yourself.

Canada Is Dying

Attracting talent isn't a workforce development strategy at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Migration and workforce development.

Subject Article: "Kenney tells employers to raise wages: Way to solve skills shortages."

Other Links: 1. "NEARLY EMPTY JAPANESE VILLAGE POPULATED BY LIFE-SIZED DOLLS."
2. "To ensure prosperity, immigration reform must not halt the flow of newcomers."
3. "Era of Dying Places."
4. "Upcoming Quebec election will be a referendum on tolerance."
5. "IT groups must learn to grow their own talent."

Postscript: Businesses pushing for more immigrants because of a "talent shortage" is a boondoggle. It's no different than pushing for more talent retention.

Demise of the Global City

Global cities in decline at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Globalization and geographic mobility.

Subject Article: "London’s Great Exodus."

Other Links: 1. "London Is Dying."
2. "What future for Britain’s ‘rustbelt’ towns?"
3. "The San Francisco Exodus."
4. "New York City's Next Williamsburg: Fishtown."
5. "Stay Put, Young Man: Americans used to be exceptional for how often they moved. But that once-powerful source of both efficiency and upward mobility is now in steep decline."
6. "Fortresses of Globalization and Wilmington, Delaware."

Postscript: To put a fine point on the post, I disagree with the analysis that migration patterns indicate economic divergence. I see economic convergence. Talent can have all of New York City in Philadelphia. Go ahead and move back to Des Moines, Iowa instead of sticking it out in sinking Chicago.

Your Knowledge Is Nothing If No One Else Knows You Know It

Dan Gilbert's business acumen is the wrong approach for redeveloping Detroit at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Benefits of brain drain and costs of talent retention initiatives.

Subject Article: "Dan Gilbert Defends $300M In Federal Spending For Detroit."

Other Links: 1. "The Talent Dividend."
2. "Want to Kill Innovation? Fight Brain Drain."
3. "The Benefits of Talent Mobility."
4. "German Pork Butchers in Britain."
5. "The Talent Commons: Human Capital and Collective Knowledge Creation."
6. "The Virtues of Leaks, Raids, and Free-Riding: An Interview with Orly Lobel."
7. "Twitter Feed of Mayor Cory Booker."
8. "The Darwin Awards: In Search Of Smart."

Postscript: Three lines of academic discourse are coming together that expose the folly of trying to plug the brain drain. The first is the migration literature putting people in front of place. More recently, I've looked into social networking theory an the problem of inbreeding homophily. More broadly, I'm interested in how knowledge transfer occurs and the impacts of migration on innovation. See pork butchers. Lastly, we have that Silicon Valley magic. Orly Lobel gives the idea of talent churn some academic heft. I think all three streams comprise an economic development strategy based on migration.

Manufacturing Migration: Who Will Move for Low-Skill, Low-Pay Jobs?

Rebirth of American manufacturing faces a migration crisis at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: The shift from least educated to most educated in who migrates.

Subject Article: "A Wave of Sewing Jobs as Orders Pile Up at U.S. Factories."

Other Links: 1. "Displacing Poverty."
2. "Who is afraid of the brain drain? Human capital flight and growth in developing countries."
3. "Federal Largesse: Not by Pork Barrel Politics Alone."
4. "The Great Creative Class Migration."
5. "Mobility Matters: Understanding the New Geography of Jobs."
6. "The Glass-Floor Problem."

Postscript: Even if manufacturing could produce a substantial number of new jobs (highly unlikely), no one will move to fill those positions. One would hope that the openings would occur in regions hit hard by unemployment. What is the economic geography of reshoring? Where do these companies need to locate?

Mobile or Stuck? Two Sides of New York City Gentrification

Gentrification and captive female labor at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Relationship between geographic mobility and prosperity.

Subject Article: "In New York, Having a Job, or 2, Doesn’t Mean Having a Home."

Other Links: 1. "Susan Hanson, Ph.D. Faculty Biography at Clark University."
2. "Geography: A Big Factor In Women`s Job Choices."
3. "Priced out of New York."
4. "Hipster Demography and Gentrification."

Postscript: I find the intersection of gender and geography to have much more explanatory power than the intersection of race and geography. A suburban neighborhood might be well off, statistically speaking. But the isolation and poverty of homemakers are very real. Geographers such as Susan Hanson studying gender have much more to teach us about gentrification and other urban problems than those academics focused on race.

Poverty Traps and Paradoxes of Migration

HUD can do better, a lot better, at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Poverty and geographic mobility.

Subject Article: "Migration Is Expensive, but Pays Off in Productivity."

Other Links: 1. "Ten Cities Chinese People Want to Escape (But Can’t)."
2. "Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing."
3. "Urban Islands of Poverty and Bowling With Strangers."

Postscript: "While the multinational companies are predominantly anchored in high-income countries, the multinational families are predominantly anchored in low-income ones."

The Great Creative Class Migration

The great 20th-century rupture in American migration patterns at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Economic epochs and iconic migrations.

Subject Article: "Chicago newspaper sparked the 'Great Migration.'"

Other Articles: 1. "Where the Brains Are."
2. "What Workers Lose By Staying Put."
3. "The New Geography of Jobs."
4. "Scott Martelle's new book, 'Detroit: A Biography.'"
5. "U.S. Manufacturing: Output vs. Jobs Since 1975."
6. "Why the Smartest People in the Midwest All Move To Chicago."
7. "Multiplier Effects: Connecting the Innovation and Opportunity Agendas."

Postscript: I struggled to get this post out. I float a few half-baked ideas and the jury is still out regarding the coherence of thought. My confession aired, might this shift in educational attainment of migrants explain the decline in geographic mobility?

Pittsburgh Booming

Stoking the fires of Pittsburgh mythos at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Divergence between Pittsburgh and the Rust Belt.

Subject Article: "In Climbing Income Ladder, Location Matters."

Other Links: 1. "A Tale of Two Rust-Belt Cities."
2. "Bankrupt is as bankrupt files."
3. "Semi-famous actress dumps on the 'Burgh."
4. "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Pittsburgh Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings."
5. "Universities Are the Key Ingredient to 21st-Century Urban Success"
6. "Check of Portland’s vitals shows signs of life."
7. "Recovery And Outmigration."
8. "Growth and Great Lakes Cities."

Postscript: The demographic group for the study:

To analyze this question, we first compiled statistics from millions of anonymous earnings records to measure intergenerational mobility by area. The core sample of children used to calculate these local intergenerational mobility measures consists of children who were born in 1980 or 1981 and are U.S. citizens as of 2013. We used family measures of (pre-tax) income (summing across married spouses) both for parents and children (when adults). We measure children’s household income in 2010-2011, when they are approximately 30 years old. We measure their parents’ household income between 1996 and 2000.

As noted, Pittsburgh shows well in the results. The years of birth are pre-exodus Pittsburgh. Odds are pretty good that these kids made a long-distance move after the regional economy cratered. After all, upward mobility and geographic mobility are positively correlated.

Germany’s Demographic Bust

Pondering the implications of Germany's shrinking workforce at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Germany is dying.

Subject Article: "Erasmus generation: To overcome its skills shortage, Germany needs to remodel its society."

Other Links: 1. "Demographic Mesofacts."
2. "Portugal’s Japanese Problem."
3. "Economists Suck At Geography."
4. "The New Geogrpahy of Jobs."
5. "Mobility Matters: Understanding the New Geography of Jobs."
6. "Reinventing the Texas Triangle: Solutions for Growing Challenges."
7. "Urban Geopolitics: Why Chicago Is Dying."
8. "Sympathy for the Luddites."

Postscript: The interview with economist Enrico Moretti is the link to click. Deeper into the rationale of why everyone regardless of educational attainment must move to Big City:

The second point that is missing from our debate is that Apple, Facebook, and other high-tech companies support a growing number of jobs outside high tech in the communities where they are located, and many of these jobs are for workers with a high school education or less. Attracting a scientist or a software engineer to a city triggers a multiplier effect, increasing employment and salaries for those who provide local services. My research, based on data for 8 million workers in 320 metropolitan areas, shows that for each new high-tech job in a city, five additional jobs are ultimately created in local services, both in professional occupations (lawyers, architects, and nurses) and in non-professional ones (waiters, hairdressers, carpenters, and security guards).

Swinging this lens away from the United States and back to the Eurozone, Germany's agglomeration economy won't do much good for the less-educated stuck in Spain. The class inversion of historical migration patterns is deeply troubling. Moretti's anxiety about this very issue is palpable in his book. I'm adding the migration as economic development to the discussion. The people who most need to move, aren't moving. And even if they did relocate, are there opportunities for them in Big City?

Diversity Cult

At Pacific Standard magazine, greater diversity isn't all it is cracked up to be.

Theme: Investigating claims that greater diversity in Pittsburgh will promote regional economic development.

Subject Article: "Regional Insights: Little room for growth without minorities."

Other Links: 1. "The Death and Life of Chicago."
2. "Why the Smartest People in the Midwest All Move To Chicago."
3. "Foreign Born, Educational Attainment, and Entrepreneurship."
4. "Growth and Great Lakes Cities."
5. "Putting Pittsburgh Demographics in Perspective."
6. "Why College Degrees Matter."
7. "Migration As Economic Stimulus."
8. "Why Density Matters."
9. "The End Of Density."
10. "In Praise of Michigan Brain Drain."
11. "Birthplace Diversity and Economic Prosperity."

Postscript: I'm all for more tolerance and greater diversity. I advocate for an immigration increase. Greater diversity isn't a floor wax and a dessert topping. We should stay focused on issues of economic development and segregation instead of chasing the next policy gimmick.

Stuck in Canada

Latest up at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: Geographic mobility in Canada.

Subject Article: "The jobs challenge: Canadians don’t want to move out of province."

Other Links: 1. "Americans still move around more than anyone else in the world."
2. "Venture Capital Geography."
3. "Why aren’t Americans moving anymore? Here’s a new theory."
4. "Mesofact Migration."
5. "Turning the migration tide."

Postscript: Related question from the Kauffman Foundation, "But the larger puzzle remains: if freelancing is really on the rise and set to rise further, why has geographic mobility been falling, and will that suppress the expected increase in freelancing?"

I think the answer is simple. Freelancing allows us to stay where we are while working elsewhere. Might job dislocation have something to do with declining geographic mobility?

Captive Labor Markets and Migration

Latest post over at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: How declining geographic mobility in the United States is creating captive labor markets.

Subject Article: "Why aren’t Americans moving anymore? Here’s a new theory."

Other Links: 1. "Rethinking post-national citizenship: The relationship between state territory and international human rights law."
2. "Parochial Pittsburgh Meets Global Pittsburgh."
3. "Assessing the Impact of Location on Women's Labor Market Outcomes: A Methodological Exploration."
4. "Benefits of Bowling Alone."
5. "Mobility Paradox."

Postscript: The most geographically mobile do not need labor unions to take on management. Migration economically empowers individuals, people. Whereas tethering a person to a place is social injustice. Policies aimed at plugging the brain drain are wrong.

How the Internet Should Increase Geographic Mobility

Latest blog post at Pacific Standard magazine.

Theme: How is the Internet impacting human migration patterns?

Subject Article: "Move over: Falling labour mobility in America may reflect a more efficient market."

Other Links: 1. "Ernest George Ravenstein: The Laws of Migration, 1885."
2. "It’s Not the People You Know. It’s Where You Are."
3. "IN PRAISE OF SPIKES: IN AN EXCLUSIVE EXCERPT, THE GURU OF THE CREATIVE CLASS EXPLAINS THE PEAKS AND VALLEYS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY."
4. "How the Internet is boosting marriage rates."

Postscript: Link #4 inspired this blog post. I'm riffing off of Tyler Cowen's thinking about the best of the internet revolution is yet to come and remembered the findings discussed in the subject article. I've discussed the subject article before, focusing more on Enrico Moretti's point about the disparity in geographic mobility between Europe and the United States. My theory is that too much social capital gums up migration. People are more risk averse. Cities, because they attract so many migrants, operate in an environment with much less social capital. Thus, they tend to be less risk averse and more entrepreneurial. It is migration, not density, that makes a city so productive.

Gender And Citizenship

The global norm is human rights for all regardless of race, ethnicity, sexuality, and gender. Concerning foreign policy issues, such as immigration and citizenship, all that goes out the window. Immigration and citizenship exist in between states, literally international. Within this liminal space, anything goes. State power is unchecked. The result is anachronistic legislation:

International law has never fully embraced multiple citizenship. Many countries frown on it, though others take a more relaxed attitude. Germany, however, manages to make it especially complicated for citizens of foreign origin. Its traditional approach goes back to a law passed before the first world war. Based on jus sanguinis (“right of blood”), it gave citizenship to anybody of German descent, but not to foreigners born in Germany, as countries such as America and France that practise jus soli (“right of soil”) do. Then, in 1999, a centre-left government added the two notions together. This would have let a woman born in Germany to Turkish parents be simultaneously German and Turkish. But that law coincided with a regional election in Hesse, where the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) seized on the issue to mobilise its conservative base in opposition. The CDU won the state and took control of the upper house, where it blocked the new law.

Emphasis added. While studying US immigration and citizenship law as a graduate student, the gender distinction surprised me. Why should male or female make any difference?

The answer to that question is culture. Women are not supposed to be geographically mobile. This bias is expressed in a number of ways from average commuting distance to international migration. Metaphorically, women are rooted to the soil, the earth of a nation. Men are free agents and should run off to sow their wild oats. Women more than men are stuck in captive labor markets. Those who are less able to move make less money.

End Of Density: Chinese Hukou System

China is home to some of the densest cities in the world. Yet these urban economic powerhouses are not as productive as they might be. Tom Miller with the skinny:

Fueled by the 250 million migrant workers moving to cities for the sake of a better life, the number has been projected to grow to an astonishing 1 billion by 2030, as described by Tom Miller in his first book, China's Urban Billion: The Story Behind the Biggest Migration in Human History, published in December.

The mass migration, which the author compares to the great immigration from Europe to the US a century ago, has impacted the country's economy, society and environment.

In the book, the Beijing-based British author, also managing editor at the China Economic Quarterly, expounds on the tough issues facing China, such as the hukou (household registration) system, the disappearance of arable land, possible property bubbles and the dysfunctional fiscal system which encourages local governments to sell land to make ends meet. ...

... "Up to 250 million people in Chinese cities do not live genuinely urban lives, because migrant workers from the countryside are not entitled to urban social security and face institutionalized discrimination in the cities," writes Miller, who has been in China for more than a decade.

"As temporary residents with few legal rights, most migrants remain trapped in low-income jobs, save as much as they can, and buy few goods or services," he writes. "For this reason, China has failed to reap many of the economic benefits from its huge surge in migration."

Emphasis added. As the World Bank reported, density, mobility, and global connectivity are reshaping economic geography. If only intuitively, the benefits of density are understood. Geographic mobility is another story. Mumbai is the densest city in the world. Once an open and cosmopolitan place, Mumbai now discourages migration:

Mumbai is a city of open arms. More than any other South Asian city, it has lured Muslims, Jews, Christians, Parsees and Hindus, aspiring taxi drivers and wannabe actresses, and melted them into an industrious whole. In a certain elite realm, freedom reigns; women dance on tables in nightclubs, and gays and lesbians flock once a month to a rather uncloseted party called Gay Bombay.

But Mumbai is also, today, teetering between its tradition of liberality and new tendencies toward intolerance.

In recent years, activists have driven into exile famous artists who offend them, closed down museum exhibitions and agitated to have movies banned. A minority of upper-caste Hindus has lobbied to cordon off whole sections of Mumbai as vegetarian zones, effectively excluding Muslims. And now politicians have revived a perennial cause: ridding Mumbai of migrants.

Looking at Mumbai, I'm not surprised that some would conclude that density makes a city go. With the crackdown on migrants, density will remain. Creativity and innovation will move somewhere else. The Mumbai magic will be lost.

For the fastest growing cities in the world, migration is a policy problem. The numbers leaving the rural for urban are jaw-dropping. But discouraging newcomers is counterproductive.

The primary challenge for planners and placemakers is managing migration. How can a city better integrate recent arrivals? Can we improve connectivity to the most isolated neighborhoods? Strategies that allow for greater density without spiraling rents afford a greater influx of talent, which will foster more innovation and economic growth.

Brain Drain And Xenophobia

Local jobs for local people. This mindset fuels xenophobia. Matthew Yglesias making a false distinction between fear of immigrants and fear of outsiders:

When people hear about a town that's attracting many new residents, they say it's "booming" not that the newcomers are poaching a fixed supply of jobs. Nobody in Texas seems to have proposed trying to close the state to migrants from the Northeast and Midwest; rather, they see the state's attraction to migrants as one of its strengths. The "foreign-ness" of newcomers from other countries distracts people from fundamental dynamics that they understand in other contexts. 

Domestic xenophobia, from Okies to Hillbillies, is alive and well.





You were born here. Used our hospitals and schools. Once graduated, you will toil and pay taxes. Talent, we (i.e. the community) own you:

When Mr. Szabo, 24, graduates soon from law school, he will be free to go wherever in the world he wants. But Mr. Birtalan, 18, was required to sign a contract at the beginning of his first year as a sociology major because of a new rule introduced in September. As a beneficiary of the state-funded university system, he will be obliged to work for two years in Hungary for every year of his subsidized studies. ...

... The Hungarian government sees the contracts as necessary means to combat “brain drain,” said Zoltan Balog, the government minister in charge of human resources, referring to graduates’ choosing to work abroad.

“How can it be that we are training several hundreds of doctors every year — which costs the taxpayers a whole lot of money — who after graduation immediately go to Norway, to Sweden, to England?” Mr. Balog said in an interview.

“I don’t want to enslave them,” he said of Hungarian students. “I want to have a balance between the individual interest and the national interest. This country is investing in higher education, so whoever graduates should also use their knowledge to further the interest of the country.”

I've heard it all before, ad nauseum. Wait a second ... How did I get from fear of Hillbillies taking over Chicago to the connection between talent retention slavery and xenophobia? Local jobs for local people.

Three people apply for a position. One is foreign born. Number two is from out of state. The last is born and raised in Middleamericaville. Who should be hired?

I say the company should be able to hire whomever it sees fit to hire. Who cares where they were born? If you worry about brain drain, then you care. You are a xenophobe. Such xenophobia informs ridiculous policies such as the one in Hungary.

By hook or crook, carrot or stick, trying to stop brain drain is wrong. Helping someone through school doesn't give you a claim on what that graduate does. Restricting geographic mobility does a world of harm. Promoting geographic mobility unleashes economic growth.

Those who seek to plug the brain drain are no better than the folks chanting anti-immigrant slogans.